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Baseball Betting Preview - Reds at Nationals

June 11, 2009
Baseball Betting - Cincinnati Reds (Owings) at Washington Nationals (Lannan) 4:35 ET

By Matt Fargo

John Lannan of the NationalsSomething has to give for John Lannan. He is arguably one of the better pitchers in baseball that no one has heard of and the reason is that he plays for the worst team in baseball.

He started the season with a rough outing against Florida, but his ERA has basically come down almost every game since and that ERA is a solid 3.04 over his last 11 starts.

He has one of the bigger home/road disparities in baseball as his ERA is 6.30 in six road starts and 1.76 in six home starts. He has not lost at home, going 2-0 but Washington is 0-4 in his non-decisions.

The good news is that he is coming off his best performance of the season while pitching nine innings, but he tossed only 96 pitches meaning he can go a long way again without needing help from the bullpen.

Although that same bullpen has been solid of late, posting a 2.92 ERA over its last 10 games. In 49 career starts, Lannan has a 3.88 ERA which is extremely solid.

The Reds are hitting only .214 on the road against left-handed pitching.

Micah Owings gets the call for the Reds and there is a reason why he is the underdog. He is coming off a quality start in his last outing which was only his third this season in 10 starts.

The last two quality performances were followed up with horrible games as he allowed five runs in each and both resulted in Cincinnati losses.

His 4.90 ERA on the season may not seem horrible, but that is accompanied with a WHIP of 1.55 and that is in fact horrible.

His ERA and WHIP both improve very slightly on the road, but he is 1-4 in his five road outings with the Reds averaging only 3.21 rpg in those contests.

Before the sun goes down is where Owings has struggled the most, posting a 6.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in three starts.

Washington has been successful against the lower echelon pitchers in baseball, going a successful 18-11 against pitchers that possess a WHIP between 1.50 and 1.60.

There is no doubt that the Nationals are the worst team in baseball, but we need to pick their spots to play and this line screams out a play on Washington.

Pick: Washington Nationals (-131) available at 5Dimes.com.

Check out the free sports picks section as well as the mlb baseball betting forum for more picks, trends and information for Thursday.


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