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College Basketball Dayton at Xavier

March 05, 2009

College Basketball Betting - Dayton Flyers at (17) Xavier Musketeers (Thursday 9:00 ET)

Two of the Atlantic 10 frontrunners will go head-to-head in a key clash tonight when the Xavier Musketeers host the Dayton Flyers.

Oddsmakers aren't buying the hype or the fact that Dayton won the team's first meeting. Xavier is a 10-point favorite at for this 9 pm ET game on ESPN2.

The A-10 race is coming down to an exceptional conclusion and Dayton and Xavier are still in the hunt. Dayton (24-5, 11-14 ATS), after briefly making the Top 25, has been bitten by the injury bug and is just trying to survive.

The loss of junior point guard Rob Lowery to season-ending knee surgery has allowed teams to sag more in the paint, not fearing the Flyers perimeter game.

This places additional pressure on forward Chris Wright and guard Marcus Johnson to fill up the basket, not only inside, but outside as well.

The Flyers are tied for second place in the A-10 and are 3-3 in their last six games. Dayton is just 3-7 ATS off a straight up win.

Xavier (23-5, 15-10 ATS) has run into a few roadblocks on the road, but is near perfect at the Cintas Center with a 13-1 (6-5-1 ATS) record, winning by 16 points per game.

The Musketeers have not been as strong since February, with a 4-3 record. The problem can be traced to their inability to handle pressure and getting inconsistent play from their point guard. Coach Sean Miller has been tinkering with this position.

Xavier feels they have gotten back together after thumping St. Joseph's last Thursday 68-54. The Musketeers hold teams to 38.6% shooting and are 10-3 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games this season.

Xavier is alone in first place in the A-10 at 11-3 (9-4 ATS) and can do no worse than a tie with a win over Dayton.

This is a revenge contest for the Musketeers, having lost at Dayton by 13 points on February 11th and they are 25-11 ATS in home games revenging a loss.

Dayton is 2-5 against the spread as road underdogs of seven to 12 points.

Xavier has won 23 in a row over Dayton at home, with a 7-4 ATS record in the last 11 meetings.

Pick: Over 130.5 (-110)

Check out the college basketball betting forum for more picks, predictions and information.

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