|   | College Basketball - Illinois vs. Michigan State |
| January 16, 2010 |
College Hoops Betting Preview and Pick - Illinois at (7) Michigan State (Saturday 3:30 ET)
By Matt Fargo
Michigan St. is coming off a home win over Minnesota last time out on Wednesday by seven points. It was the fourth straight win for the Spartans to open conference action and it also resulted in four straight covers.
They covered that game against the Gophers by a half-point and comparing that line to this line does not jive.
I have Minnesota ranked 38th in my power ratings while I have Illinois ranked 61st. That is not a significant difference and one that should not translate to a line difference of over five points.
The Spartans are once again one of the top teams in the country and all three of their losses have come against top teams although North Carolina is slowly falling away from that.
They are 10-0 at home this season but only three of those are considered quality wins and those came by seven, seven and four points. I definitely consider Illinois a quality team.
The Illini are 12-5 on the season and they are a few bounces away from possessing a much better record than that even.
Illinois has four losses by four points or less and all of those came on a neutral floor. The Illini are 2-0 on the road including a very impressive road win at Clemson and they as well are a perfect 4-0 in the conference.
Illinois is ranked 11th in the country in assists with 17.3 apg and is 12th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio at 1.44 while it is a solid +4.2 in rebounding margin which is tied for 63rd in the country and fourth in the Big Ten.
This is thanks to forward Mike Davis who leads the Big Ten and is 24th in the country in rebounding with 9.7 rpg and point guard Demetri McCamey who leads the conference and is 13th in the nation in assists with 5.9 apg.
Michigan St. has long been a team that shoots very well from the free throw line but this season is different as it is hitting just 67.8 percent including only 65.6 percent at home. Illinois meanwhile is hitting 73.2 percent from the charity stripe including 74.7 percent over the last five games and that is a big edge.
Michigan St. is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record while Illinois is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games coming off a win by three points or less.
Pick: Illinois +11 (-110) available at 5Dimes.com.
Check out the college basketball betting forum for more picks, trends and analysis for Saturday. |
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