|College Football Betting Preview - (14) Georgia Tech vs. (20) Miami Florida (Thursday 7:30 ET)
By Tony George
Miami is currently a 5-point home favorite with a game total of 54 at Bodog.com.
When losing money on GT last week against Clemson after the Yellow Jackets blew a 24 point lead only to win and not cover on a last second field goal, it was apparent to me that they have issues on offense.
They are completely one dimensional with the running game. There is no doubt they have a great RB in Dwyer, and their QB is capable of making big plays running it as well.
A varied triple option attack used by head coach Paul Johnson works against teams who either do not have a strong A-gap containment or no ability to use speed to get linebackers outside to shut down the corner.
They won their game against Clemson with 2 big plays, and a special teams TD. They were totally dominated in the second half of that game.
Being a fan of the old Tom Osborne led Huskers in the 90's using this same approach, I totally under how it works.
That being said, QB Nesbit has a 36% completion rate on the season, is a poor passer and GT cannot play from behind and win games against good opponents if they get bottled up on the option attack which Clemson shut down last week.
Their defense is suspect to the vertical passing game, as Jacoby Ford from Clemson destroyed them downfield last week and RB Spiller ran all over them. In essence, speed killed GT in the second half, on offense and defense.
Miami has speed on both sides of the ball. They won a huge game at Florida State on Labor Day and won it with speed, depth, and a balanced attack and QB Harris is better than advertised and has some chops.
They are avenging a 41-23 loss last year in this game and revenge is a big factor in college football.
While the defensive numbers favor GT, bear in mind the yards given up by Miami were mostly through the air against Florida State, and as mentioned, GT does not throw the ball well at all. They held FSU to 109 rushing.
If Miami gets out to a fast start and GT has to get out of their game plan and throw to win, Miami walks away with it. If not, expect a 4 quarter battle, but I will lean with the home team in this one.
Free Pick: Miami Florida -5 (-110) available right now at Bodog.com.
Check out the college football betting forum for more picks and info for Week 3.