|   | College Football: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M |
| October 30, 2009 |
College Football Preview - Iowa State Cyclones at Texas A&M Aggies (Saturday 3:30 ET)
By Matt Fargo
Texas A&M snapped its three-game losing skid with a win at Texas Tech on Saturday, its first win away from home this season. It came into that game with losses of 28 and 48 points away from home so a victory like that is a huge confidence builder.
The Aggies are 3-1 at home with the lone setback coming in their last game at Kyle Field, a five-point defeat against Oklahoma St. who is once again looking like a title contender in the Big XII. Texas A&M has outgained five of its seven opponents this season and it catches a really good spot on Saturday.
The Cyclones are coming off a huge win in Lincoln against the Huskers on Saturday, their first win there since 1977. While it was a big win for Iowa St., it was more of a bad loss for Nebraska as it gift-wrapped the victory by turning the ball over eight times, four of which took place inside the Iowa St. five-yard line.
No team is going to win with errors like that. That game is what is providing some excellent value as if that game had played out the way it should have, and that means an Iowa St. loss, this number would definitely be sitting at double-digits.
That was the first Iowa St. road win in the conference since 2005 so we should not expect to see another big effort this week.
The Iowa St. defense allowed just seven points but again, it was aided by turnovers. The total defense is ranked 82nd in the nation, allowing 383.6 ypg and it has been equally bad against the run and the pass. That is not good against a team like the Aggies that can get it done in both facets of the game on offense.
Texas A&M is third in the country in total offense, averaging 489.0 ypg and that tops in the Big XII which says a lot based on all of the potent offenses within the conference.
The Aggies defense is an issue as they are ranked 98th in the nation overall and 104th in scoring defense, yielding 32.9 ppg. Against most teams within the Big XII, that would be an issue however that is not the case here.
The Cyclones are 82nd in the country in scoring offense, averaging only 24.3 ppg which is good for just 10th in the conference. They do lead the conference in rushing offense, averaging a solid 204.3 ypg but that is on 4.8 ypc and that drops to 4.4 ypc on the road and in their last four games which is pretty average.
Iowa St. rushes the ball nearly 60 percent of the time, 29th most in the country, because the passing game is very weak. The Cyclones are 97th in passing offense in the nation and second to last in the conference.
Texas A&M has been lit up against good passing teams but that will be far from the case on Saturday. Texas A&M falls into two very solid situations. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 140 and 190 rushing ypg going up against a team allowing between 100 and 140 rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being +16.1 ppg.
Also, play against road underdogs that are coming off a conference win by three points or fewer going up against an opponent that is coming off a conference win by 21 points or more. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +20.6 ppg.
Both of these situations are strong on the home team and the Aggies will come away with another big win this Saturday against the overachieving Cyclones.
Pick: Texas A&M -6 (-105) available at 5Dimes.com.
Be sure to take a look at the college football betting forum for more picks, trends and info for Week 9.
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