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College Football SMU at Texas Tech

September 13, 2008

College Football Betting - SMU Mustangs at (12) Texas Tech Red Raiders (Saturday 7:00 PM ET)

This line is inflated for no real reason. Texas Tech may be 2-0 but the wins came against Eastern Washington and Nevada and the win against the Wolf Pack was very misleading.

The Red Raiders may have won by 16 points but they were outgained 488-421 and they lost the time of possession battle by over 13 minutes. Texas Tech got a questionable call on a touchdown that was instead ruled a fumble and it also returned a punt 86 yards for a score.

SMU struggled in its opener against Rice in its first game in the new June Jones offense. The Mustangs won on Saturday against Texas St. and even though it was not a good team and an impressive win, it gave them an extra game to get the systems going and if for nothing else, provided some great confidence.

SMU put up 431 total yards and even though the defense did not play good but in a game like this with a line like this, the offense won't need much for the cover.

Looking at Texas Tech message boards and the talk is about how many points the offense is going to score and how much this team is going to win by. I love seeing stuff like that.

This offense has the potential to be one of the best around but the points aren't coming. Prior to Nevada, the Red Raiders came off a crushing win over Eastern Washington as they amassed 639 yards of total offense. However, this game was very much in doubt entering the fourth quarter as the Red Raiders were only up by 11 points.

Back to the Mustangs offense. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell had quite a game, completing 24-of-37 pass attempts for 370 yards and five touchdowns against Texas St. SMU's five touchdown passes marked the first time the Mustangs have had that many since that Sam Houston State game in 2006. While they have had two games to get things clicking, the other side of the ball should help them out as well.

After two weeks, the Red Raiders rank a 95th in the total defense and while they have stopped teams from the big scoring, they are giving up chunks of yards and a Jones-made offense can take advantage.

This game has the makings of a shootout and with this line we are getting, Texas Tech can put up points in the 60's and the Mustangs can still cover rather comfortably.

A win here is unlikely and that is something we normally look at when grabbing the underdog but a dog like this has tremendous value.

Pick: SMU Mustangs +36 (-110) available at BodogLife.

- Matt Fargo of Sportscapping.com

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