College Football - UTEP vs. Memphis

By Matt Fargo

UTEP is coming off a huge win last week over Houston and because of that one effort, the Miners are now road favorites.

Granted they were road favorites over New Mexico St., arguably one of the worst teams in the country, and covered that number even though they outgained the Aggies by only 54 total yards.

Even against Houston, despite winning by 17 points, UTEP was outgained by 83 yards by the Cougars as it was able to take advantage of two fumbles, one that was returned 70 yards for a touchdown. In its other games, they lost at home to Buffalo and was annihilated by both Kansas ands Texas while getting outgained by 964 yards in those games.

Memphis obviously does not compare to those latter two teams mentioned, but it shows that the Miners are not a very good team.

The same can surely be said about Memphis as they are having a very disappointing season. At 1-4, the Tigers have yet to defeat a team from the FBS as their only win has come against FCS team Tennessee-Martin.

It also happened to be the only game where they outgained their opponent which is definitely a problem. The only saving grace is the play at home where they played Mississippi real tough for three quarters and also played Marshall tough as it was outgained by just 16 yards.

All of this still translates into a 1-4 record, but let's not forget who we are dealing with here. Memphis started 2007 going 2-4 and started 0-3 last season before making a strong finish and heading to a bowl game both years.

The season is far from over but this is a game that is really does need to win as it cannot fall to 0-3 in C-USA action.

Tigers quarterback Tyler Bass, who has started the last three games, is a question mark here due to a shoulder injury but the offense has not done much and if he can't go, veteran Will Hudgens will get the nod which is a pretty equal trade if you ask me.

I take long looks at rankings for rushing offense and defense as well as offensive and defensive passing efficiency as those are four big categories when it comes to the strength of a team. Neither of these teams is very solid in any of those areas and that is what makes this line even more puzzling.

The average ranking for Memphis in those aforementioned categories is 102nd while the average for UTEP is 93rd. That is not a big difference at all and those rankings do take strength of schedule into account as the Miners have played a much tougher slate.

For instance, they are 83rd in raw rushing offense but I have ranked 56th based on their schedule. By factoring in the schedules, it does not allow unfair advantages. So in this case, we are a relatively even scale yet the road team gets the chalk.

Memphis falls into a very potent situation as well. Play against road teams where the line is between +3 and -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games.

This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +5.4 ppg. This situation is a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last five seasons and it makes logical sense as it is simply saying play against really bad teams that are wrongly favored on the road.

Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against defenses that are allowing 6.25 or more yppl (UTEP is allowing 6.26 actually).

Also, the Miners are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games against teams that have a winning percentage worse than .250.

Look for the Tigers to finally get over that FBS hump.

Pick: Memphis Tigers +2½ (-110) at Bodog.com.

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