|MLB Betting Preview - Florida Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks 4:10 ET
By Robbie Gainous
The fourth and final game in this series takes place on Sunday afternoon with the first pitch set for 4:10PM Est.
We used the Marlins as our Complimentary Selection on Thursday in the first game of this series and they came from way behind to pull off the win but they have since lost the last two games and need a win on Sunday for the split.
They certainly have the starter to help with that in Josh Johnson who is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.82 on the season.
The Marlins are 13-5 when he takes the mound and they are hoping for another solid performance from him today.
Johnson is 3-1 W/L with an ERA of 3.91 when he starts on the road and 22-5 following a quality start in his last outing.
There are several key technical indicators that favor Johnson and the Marlins in this situation first he is 14-3 W/L when starting on four days rest, 5-0 W/L his last five on the road when facing a team with a losing record and 11-5 W/L his last sixteen road starts overall.
We also see that the Marlins are 20-11 W/L (+10.1) versus left-handed starters including 11-5 W/L their last 16 versus lefties, 9-2 W/L their last eleven against teams with a losing record and 9-2 W/L when installed as a favorite.
The Diamondbacks will hang their series winning hopes on starter Doug Davis who is 4-8 W/L with an ERA of 3.13 this season.
Arizona is 5-13 W/L overall when Davis takes the bump including 3-7 W/L (-5.1) when he starts at home while Davis has a record of 2-5 W/L at home with an ERA of 3.11.
Davis has not had much success versus the fish either posting a record of 2-3 W/L with an ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.488.
The Diamondbacks are 2-5 W/L (-3.2) behind Davis when he starts versus the Marlins.
Arizona will need a solid performance out of Davis if they wish to have a chance because their bullpen has struggled at home with only 8 saves and 6 blown attempts with an ERA of 5.30 and a WHIP of 1.487 all at Chase Field this season.
The Diamondbacks are 19-29 W/L (-16.2) at home this season, 29-34 W/L (-4.9) versus right-handed starters and 1-6 W/L their last seven at home versus a team with a winning record.
Arizona is 1-6 W/L when Davis takes the hill versus NL East opponents, 3-7 W/L with Davis coming off a quality start in his last outing and 0-4 their last four when he is installed as an underdog.
We will lay the short price with the visitor as the fish grab a game four victory and split this four-game series.
Free Pick: Florida Marlins (-116) available at 5Dimes.com.
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