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MLB Betting Preview Reds at Dodgers

July 20, 2009
MLB Betting Preview and Pick: Cincinnati Reds at LA Dodgers (Monday 10:10 ET)

By Matt Fargo

The Dodgers used solid pitching to take the final two games of their series with Houston to gain the four-game split.

I do not think the same type of pitching will be on display tonight as the fifth spot in the rotation, which has been dicey all season, could be even more fragile.

Jay Bruce of the RedsThe Reds continue to hand around in their division following a weekend split as well. This is a big trip for Cincinnati who has the Cubs following this three-game set so this could be the make or break week.

Los Angeles will be bringing out veteran Jason Schmidt who has not pitched in the Majors in over two years because of several injuries and setbacks.

He has lost a lot of velocity on the pitches and his fastball is what made him so successful in the past.

Schmidt has made eight rehab appearances in the minors, going a combined 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in stops at Class A and Triple-A, and while those numbers are solid, this is a whole new ballgame.

Cincinnati counters with Micah Owings who has been consistently inconsistent this season.

He is coming off his worst start of the season before the break where he allowed seven runs in just 4.1 innings against the Phillies.

The time off should have helped and the good news is that he rarely has put back-to-back bad performances together.

In his last three starts where he allowed five runs or more, he followed those up with solid outings of giving up three runs or less in each and posting a combined 3.31 ERA.

He has fared well against the Dodgers in the past while in Arizona as he has a 3.71 ERA in three career starts.

The Reds fall into a solid contrarian underdog situation. Play on National League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.55 to 1.65 on the season and is coming off a game where he allowed seven runs or more. This situation is 112-73 (60.5 percent) since 1997.

The Dodgers are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200.

Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds (+145) available at Bodog.com.

Take a look at all of Monday's free sports picks and more information in the mlb baseball betting forum.


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