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MLB Phillies at Cardinals

June 22, 2007
MLB Baseball - Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals (-110) 8:00 PM EST
 
Albert Pujols of the CardinalsPhiladelphia and St. Louis have both concluded interleague play and are the only two major league baseball teams that will not be participating in that activity this weekend.

Each club is in the thick of a division race trying to catch the leader of the pack.

As the intrigue of interleague play wraps up, these two National League contenders fall into an appealing system play.

The Phillies are two games over .500 at 37-35 and have flattened out lately with a 5-5 record in last 10 ballgames. Their contingent of pitchers collectively has an earned run average of 5.15 with an equally mediocre WHIP of 1.571.

A reason why this has been such a problem is the number of hits allowed compared to innings pitched. The Philadelphia bullpen has given up 224 base knocks in 204 innings. Contrast that with the St. Louis pen who in 225.3 innings has surrendered 212 hits.

Anthony Reyes needs to start figuring out how to pitch in the big leagues in a hurry. This season he is 0-8 (Cards 1-9 in his starts) with a hideous 6.36 ERA, which has blown up further with 9.36 mark in his last three starts.

With all the injuries that have occurred to the Cardinals starting staff, the 25-year old Reyes future is now. If you watch his mechanics, his deliveries look like a pitching machine, which are easy to pick up for a batter to drive the ball and the opposing team to light up the scoreboard with regular frequency.

He's trying to avoid becoming the first Cardinal hurler to lose nine straight decisions to start a season since Danny Jackson did it in 1995.

The Philadelphia bullpen and St. Louis starter Reyes are the conduits to this Super Situation.

PLAY AGAINST all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (NL).

Over the last five seasons this system is hotter then a St. Louis summer day with 32-6 84.2% record. One of the oddities of this Super Situation the games have not even been close with the average margin of victory 2.6 runs per game, picking up the +24.6 units of profit.

Philadelphia is listed as a +100 underdog at sportsbook.com for the opening game of this series.

Ironically this will be the first time this system has arisen in 2007 and has the capability of providing yet another winner for the first time this season.

Visit the mlb baseball betting forum for picks and analysis from your fellow sports bettors.


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