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MLB Preview and Pick - Padres at Rangers

June 26, 2009
MLB Preview and Free Pick - San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers 8:05 ET

By Matt Fargo

Adrian GonzalezThis is a great value play on the Padres. Texas won two of its final three games in Arizona, but both were one-run victories and it has been a rough stretch for the Rangers.

Since May 31st, Texas is only 9-13 and tonight on its return home, finds itself more than a 2-1 underdog.

To put that into perspective, the Rangers have not been a 2-1 favorite this season and have not been a 2-1 favorite since 2006 when they went 0-2 in that situation.

The Padres come into town in the midst of a bad run of their own, but they have not been a 2-1 underdog at all this season.

These heavy favorite lines should be set on the elite teams and the Rangers are far from that at this point in the season.

Making this line so high is the fact that Kevin Millwood takes the hill for the Rangers and he is having a great season.

In 15 starts, he has a 2.62 ERA including a 2.08 ERA in eight home starts. Those ERA's are very solid, but his WHIP both overall and at home is 1.22 and while good, it is not in line with those ERA's.

He is allowing a good number of baserunners but has been fortunate to get out of jams. Texas is just 8-7 in those 15 games.

The Padres counter with Walter Silva who is off to a slow start, but does have two decent outings in his three starts on the season.

He went on the disabled list after his April 13th start against Mets and returned last Saturday against Oakland by allowing three runs in 5.1 innings so it was very close to a quality outing.

We look for him to carry some of that over into this one and give San Diego a very good chance to cash a large ticket.

Free Pick: San Diego Padres (+205) available at Sportsbook.com.

Check out more free sports predictions for Friday. Also visit the mlb baseball betting forum for picks, trends, contests and information.


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