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MLB Tigers at Twins

July 18, 2007

MLB Baseball Betting - Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-200, 7) 8:00 PM EST

Johan Santana of the TwinsDetroit scratched across the only run last night for the win and their high octane offense will be put to the test again today facing Johan Santana.

The vexing Venezuelan is catching fire like he does every year. Santana is 11-6 with a 2.60 earned run average on the season. In his last five starts his ERA is 1.03, all wins, as opposing hitters are swinging harmlessly with a .177 batting average.

The left-hander is a remarkable 41-4 with a 2.07 ERA and a major league-leading 427 strikeouts in games played after the All-Star break over the last four seasons.

Santana is also 18-4 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. (Twins Record)

Detroit is a copious +180 underdog at sportsbook.com with its rookie lefthander Andrew Miller (4-3, 3.35). The Florida native is just 22-years old, having seven starts and has pitched well, as the Tigers try and nurse him along on pitch counts.

He has all the pitches and just needs the confidence in facing big league hitters to be dominating. Minnesota is just 13-14 against LH starters this season and the Tigers hope they are even more off balance after facing Nate Robertson's assortment of curves and off-speed pitches compared to Miller's hard stuff.

Detroit continues to be the best road team in baseball and is 18-5 against the ML in road games after allowing one run or less over the last two seasons.

At this juncture one season ago, Minnesota was a full 11 games behind the Tigers in the Central division, thus being down seven has to feel like a bargain comparatively. "I remember last year I said they'll be right there
at the end of the season and they were," Detroit manager Jim Leyland said.

"They'll be right there this year. They're very good." This is an important time for the Twins if they want to make up ground, as yesterday started a 10-game homestand.

With Santana in his comfort zone that normally spells trouble for Detroit. "I'm being more consistent throwing and hitting the corners, and throwing all my pitches," Santana said on the Twins official Web site. "It takes a little bit of time for you to feel comfortable, but I feel comfortable now."

He's also been quite comfortable against the Tigers hitters with 11-3 record and 2.90 ERA in his career.

It would stand to reason to believe this contest would go under the posted number of 8, yet numbers support a potentially different result.

The Twins with Santana on the mound are 14-4 OVER after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing over the last two seasons. (Average score 9.3 RPG)

Detroit is 14-4 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 and 17-5 OVER vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Discuss tonight's baseball card in the mlb baseball betting forums.


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