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MNF Bears at Rams Preview

December 11, 2006

Chicago Bears (-7) 41 at St. Louis Rams 8:30 EST

The week 14 NFL slate concludes on Monday with a dual between the Bears and Rams from St. Louis. The hosts have fallen apart and may have hit rock bottom with their 34-20 loss last week to Arizona. To make matters worse, the Rams take on the NFC leading "Monsters of the Midway" defense and are just 8-23 ATS against strong defensive teams who yield less than 17 points per game since 1992.

The Bears allow a league best 12.5 points per game but have been winning ugly of late. In fact, Chicago mustered just 107 yards of offense in Sunday's win vs. Minnesota. Some folks are calling for QB Rex Grossman to be relieved of his duties in favor of Brian Griese but as of now, Head Coach Lovie Smith has dismissed making a move that might adversely affect his teams psyche. The Windy City Boys find themselves a 6-point favorite for Monday's contest and come in on a roll as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons, having covered eight of nine games in that scenario.

For St. Louis, the struggles have been many fold. The offense isn't hitting on the same cylinders it was early in the season, as Marc Bulger seems to be suffering more than lead on to with a rib injury. RB Steven Jackson is doing a yeoman's work carrying the unit, but they continue finding it difficult reaching paydirt. On defense, the Rams can't stop anyone on the ground. In fact, they haven't held a single team below 100 yards rushing since week 4.

Fortunately, it is the cold and hot nature of these clubs that might enable St. Louis to break through and at least stay competitive in this game. Look at this StatFox Super Situation: Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games. (28-7 since 1983.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*). Perhaps we're all in for another barking home dog like last Monday with Philadephia.

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