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NBA Betting Preview - Warriors at Spurs

March 24, 2009

NBA Betting Preview - Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (Tuesday 8:30 ET)

By Matt Fargo

San Antonio has won 20 straight home meetings against the Warriors and there is really no reason to believe that it will end here. Or is there?

The Spurs are not playing good right now as they have dropped two straight games at home and even though those came against the Celtics and Rockets, those losses can linger.

Especially when it is tough to get up for the next opponent and what real incentive is there for the Spurs to get up for Golden St.?

San Antonio has a pretty big game in Atlanta tomorrow night and that means one thing. Tim Duncan sits either tonight or tomorrow night.

It is still undecided on which way the Spurs will go on that and while it is more likely for him to sit tomorrow in the second of the back-to-back set, it could very well be tonight with a much tougher opponent on deck for tomorrow.

Either way, we get a good number on a team that is playing pretty well. Golden St. has won four of its last seven games and while it has lost five straight games on the road, the last three have been quite competitive.

The Warriors got off to a horrible start this season but since January 11th, they have gone 15-17 which is far from playoff material but considering the start to the season was 10-28, this has been a huge turnaround. It is no coincidence that Golden St. has played better when Monta Ellis is in the lineup.

The Warriors are 11-9 in the 20 games he has played in so they are no doubt a better ballclub when he is in the lineup. The Warriors lost by 35 points in the first meeting against the Spurs this year but Ellis was not playing.

They lost in overtime at home in the second meeting and that was him having just an average game. It is also important to note that San Antonio had both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan on the court and they scored 32 points each.

The Spurs are without Ginobili and could be without Duncan this time around. Golden St. falls into a very solid situation.

Play against favorites of 10 or more points that are averaging between 92 and 98 ppg going up against a team that is allowing more than 102 ppg, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996.

The philosophy is simple in that a low scoring game could be expected and that always favors the underdog, especially when that underdog is receiving double-digits.

Also, Golden St. is 19-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against an opponent this season.

Pick: Golden State Warriors +10 (-110) available at Bodoglife.com.

Be sure to join the NBA basketball betting forum for more picks and information on Tuesday night NBA action.


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