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NBA Playoffs Warriors at Mavericks

April 25, 2007

NBA Playoffs Game 2 - Golden St. Warriors at Dallas Mavericks (-9Ĺ, 210) 9:30 ET

In Game 1 of their first round series, the Dallas Mavericks look and played like the 8th seed instead of the team with one with the best regular season records in the history of the NBA.

Baron Davis of the WarriorsGolden State was the aggressor and played with far more confidence then Dallas did in winning 97-85. The Warriors were on the attack using undersized, quicker line-up that basically scored when it needed to against the Mavericks. Defensively they held Mark Cubanís club to 35.3% shooting, continually being in position to take the Dallas players out of their comfort zones.

When you consider 82 games had been played by these teams, it is nothing short of amazing what this upset did to alter the perception of gamblers and oddsmakers alike.

On Sunday morning the Mavs were a -1600 favorite to win the series, now they fallen precipitously to -550 at sportsbook.com.

Another aspect that has impacted this series immediately is the theory of adjusting lines based on the perception of the last game.

Normally a home team off a loss playing at home again would see the line would move up, with typical reasoning being they would be more motivated and seek revenge, following the ďzig-zagĒ model if you will. Instead the opposite has occurred, Golden State went off as a10-point underdog in game one, opened as 9.5-point road dog for the second game and has been bet down to +9 points.

Coach Don Nelsonís team has without a doubt gotten into the heads of the Dallas players with five straight wins and covers, including four this season.

It was a classic teacher beating the student in the series lid-lifter as Avery Johnson developed that wide-eyed look people do when they are losing control.

Johnsonís teams have responded with rest and are 15-4 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days.

Coach Nelson has the third most wins in NBA history and his teams over the years have played well off an upset, with a 31-15 ATS mark in road games off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1996.

Discuss tonight's matchups and post your picks in the NBA basketball betting forum.


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