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NFL Betting Kansas City at Oakland

November 30, 2008

NFL Football Betting - Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:15 PM ET)

Two of the worst defenses square off on Sunday in what could very well be one of the higher scoring games of the day. The only thing holding this back from being a bigger play is the Oakland offense.

The Raiders put up 31 points in Denver last week but their offense is still relatively pedestrian. They gained only 318 total yards but the good that came out of it was that JaMarcus Russell is coming off his best game of the season. He threw only 11 passes but finished with a 149.1 passer rating.

The one thing the Kansas City defense can do is make the Oakland offense look much better than it really might be. The Chiefs possess the worst defense in the NFL as they are allowing 406.3 ypg and they are the only team in the league allowing more than 400 yards per game.

The scoring defense isn't as bad but it is close as Kansas City allows 29.7 ppg which is 30th in the league. After allowing a respectable 24.3 ppg through four games, the Chiefs have given up 32.9 ppg in their last seven games.

While the Chiefs offense was held in check in the early part of the season, they have come alive in recent games. They averaged 12.5 ppg through their first six games but have averaged 24.2 ppg over their last five games and three of those came against some pretty respectable defenses.

The play of quarterback Tyler Thigpen has been the main reason for the increased output as he has completely turned things around. He has 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last five games.

The Raiders defense has been pretty solid against the pass, allowing 195.5 ypg but a lot of that has to do with teams not needing to pass the ball.

The opposition has either been sitting on big leads or they have been running the ball because the rushing defense is horrible. Oakland is allowing 160 ypg which is 29th in the NFL and its ypc average of 4.7 is 26th in the league.

The Chiefs have had trouble running the ball but Larry Johnson is back and he can have a strong game here in making up for his first effort against the Raiders.

This game falls into a great situation for it to go over the total. Oakland has allowed seven points or fewer in the first half in two straight games while Kansas City is coming of a double-digit loss.

With a total set in this range and with those two occurrences, the over is 36-13 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons.

Oakland has gone under in four straight and six of its last seven and with this series posting six unders in the last seven meetings, we get tremendous value in this number.

Pick: Total Over 41 (-110) available at 5Dimes.com.

- Matt Fargo

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