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NFL Betting Preview - Chicago vs. Seattle

September 27, 2009
NFL Betting Preview and Pick - Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:05 ET)

By Matt Fargo

Chicago is currently a 3 point road favorite with a game total of 37 at

Matt Forte, RB BearsThe Bears are coming off a very big win last Sunday against the Steelers and now they head out west to Seattle before coming back home for a divisional game against Detroit.

This is a typical sandwich spot for Chicago and yet it comes into this game favored. This line opened with the Bears being a favorite before the injury information even came in which I think was a huge error.

During their Super Bowl season, the Bears went 7-1 on the road during the regular season, but since then they have gone just 6-11 with three of those wins coming against Detroit and St. Louis last season and Oakland in 2007. The season record for those teams in those years were 0-16, 2-14 and 4-12.

Wins against the better teams on the road have been few and far between and even with Matt Hasselbeck likely out for this one, the Seahawks are still a good team.

The Seahawks were a disappointing 2-6 at home last season, but injuries played a huge role in their down season in 2008.

Hasselbeck was part of it, but receivers and key defensive players were also part of it. Toward the end of the season, Seattle simply gave up as it got into a big hole that it could not get out of.

Sitting at 1-1 this season, the Seahawks know that the season is far from over and this is a big game to get things going back in the right direction.

The Seahawks have a game at Indianapolis next week so the possibility of a 1-3 record after next week is there if it loses here.

The Seahawks defense was gashed last week against the 49ers and Frank Gore as he gained 207 yards on 16 carries. He had two big touchdown runs and take those away and his average drops from 12.9 ypc to just 3.4 ypc so basically Gore was held in check his other 14 carries. That shows how numbers can really get out of whack when only one or two plays make the difference.

Making corrections this week has been the main focus for defensive coordinator Gus Bradley with the Bears bringing running back Matt Forte to town.

But even with Lofa Tatupu a question, the Seahawks won't change anything if linebacker David Hawthorne feels he is up for the challenge in his first NFL start.

I don't think anything needs to be changed anyway based on the Gore breakdown anyway. In Week One, Seattle held Steven Jackson of the Rams to 67 yards on 16 carries (4.2 ypc). Take away his 22-yard run and his average per attempts drops to 3.0. That is another classic example of just one play throwing everything out of whack.

Chicago rushed for just 43 yards on 18 carries last week (2.4 ypc). The Bears defense is without Brian Urlacher and they did not do a great job against the Steelers despite allowing just 14 points.

Pittsburgh rushed for 105 yards on 22 carries (4.8 ypc) and the offense outgained the Bears offense 308-275. Chicago was fortunate Pittsburgh missed two field goals.

Seattle also falls into a great rushing situation. Play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-110) available to bet at

Visit the NFL football betting forum for more picks and information for week 3.

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