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NFL Preview - Patriots at Cowboys

October 14, 2007

NFL Football Betting - (5-0) New England Patriots at (5-0) Dallas Cowboys 4:15 PM EST

New England is currently a 5.5-point road favorite with the game total sitting at 52.5 at sportsbook.com for this big showdown in Big D.

Two of the league’s best teams meet when Dallas hosts New England. Amazingly, the undefeated hosts are nearly a touchdown underdog!

Tony Romo of the CowboysThe Cowboys are 5-0 sraight up and ATS while averaging 35+ PPG and 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Patriots are 5-0 sraight up and ATS after clobbering Cleveland. QB Tom Brady’s club is averaging 36.4 PPG and 8.6 PYA.

It would figure to be a shootout, aside from the fact that both teams boast good defenses as well. The Cowboys are the home team and have won three-straight home games vs. the AFC. Alternatively, the Patriots are on a run of 9-2-1 visiting the NFC.

Positive angles are everywhere for this matchup of strength vs. strength, Romo vs. Brady. Tagging it a legitimate Super Bowl preview is not an overstatement.

When it comes to sports wagering in the NFL, two sets of rules should apply. One is follow the patterns of systems, trends and other wise betting information.

Secondly, ignore the first idea and always bet on New England. Bill Belichick has New England back on winning ways and is reeling off wins faster then a Patriots coach decoding opponent’s signals.

The Tom Brady to Randy Moss connection is the most lethal in the NFL this season. No team in the league has a better front office, with an eye for talent and need. In the first quarter of the schedule, New England gave up 12 points a game without All-Pros Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison in the lineup.

The replacements were given assignments and carried them out diligently. Running back Laurence Maroney missed the Monday night game in Week 4 and pick-up Sammy Morris ran behind the Patriots line like he had been a Pats running back his entire career.

New England will be presented with a tremendous challenge down in Dallas taking on the talented Cowboys.

Maybe it was what this Cowboys team needed. Wade Phillips easy going demeanor and expectations of players showing up on Sunday’s to play is paying off. Thou Phillips is not dramatically younger then the departed Bill Parcells, his approach is one the players are more responding to.

Another aspect is Tony Romo at quarterback. With Romo, every pass play has the potential to have a positive outcome even when the receivers are covered.

That was never the case with Bledsoe. Among Romo’s excellent attributes, is the ability to look downfield all the time to keep a play alive.

Neither Julius Jones nor Marion Barber are thrilled about splitting time toting the pigskin, still the competition and fresh legs later in the game make a critical difference.

Defensively Phillips is working on ways to improve the pass defense and mask some of the inadequacies that are apparent.

Keys to the Game

This will be a benchmark conflict for both teams to see where they are headed. Belichick will undoubtedly work over the Cowboys secondary and see what the sometimes pass-challenged safeties can do to stop Moss.

If the focus is on Moss too much, Wes Welker can drive them crazy on quick slants or comebacks from the slot. Dallas will have full confidence in having more viable assets than Merrill Lynch.

The Cowboys can probe the New England defense to find what will work best, and as Phillips has proved, if it works, rest assured you will see it again soon and often.

This non-conference contest is what football is all about at this level, talent, coaching and execution.

Trends

The Patriots are 9-2-1 ATS on the road against the NFC. The Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. The Cowboys are only 10-12 ATS off a Monday Night victory. The Cowboys are 20-6 ATS in home games when they score 22 to 28 points.

Be sure to visit the NFL football betting forum to post your picks or view what others are on for today's big NFL card. 


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