[naught33]

YTD: 159-110-2, +98.45 units

these tourneys after wimbledon have been hurting me, so gonna lay low here.

1 unit MASSU -165 over Horna....Massu has owned horna h2h, I know he isn't at his best right now, but I think he will be good enough to get the win in this matchup and improve to 5-0 over Horna, all 4 previous matches have also been on clay and ended in straight sets

4 units ZABALETA -160 over Berdych....Zabaleta is looking to defend his title here and has been in pretty good form this week. He took out moya easily and has better records on clay than does berdych. Berdych wins less than 50% of his matches on clay since 2001, including only 6-9 this yr coming into this tourney. Zab on the other hand is 7-6 on the surface this yr prior to this tourney, and over the same span has won 63% of his clay court matches. This is a very reasonable price for this matchup and I'll play the favorite here.

5 units PARLAY to win 7 units

STARACE -350 over Sabau
NADAL -650 over JCF
GAUDIO -700 over Seppi
ROBREDO -240 over Youzhny