[nekbug]

no problem soul. but a bit behind my thinking and cautious warning about the O's. I have had a 40+ yr love affair with the game of baseball. and if there is one thing i know about the game its this...its a game of numbers. percentages count in this game like no other. Sabermetrics

couple of cases in point. Most people look at a book score or weekly team stats and see avg, or maybe oba and make a quick calculation that the pitcher wins 6 out of 10 battles with each hitter. Not so. when you factor in all the myriad of ways an out can lead to a run (fc, error, sac, dp) you will begin to see that the % is smaller...roughly about 5.5. their is an old saying in the game...teams that make their outs count win ball games.

second point...the margin of difference between a good team and a marginal team is also alot smaller than alot of people assume. Play .600 ball and you win 97 games and make the playoffs. As of today only two teams above .600. Thats 4 losses per every ten. now a bad team, a really bad team plays .400 ball. Only 3 teams below that mark right now. thats 4 wins per ten. play out the percentages, good or bad its a margin of 2 per ten games. Now when any team pushes a streak W or L beyond 7 the odds of it continuing diminish significantly, exponentially with each additional game. And when you get a team in that position with a nice price as a dog your wise to stop and give a little bit of extra weight to your cap. history shows that double digit streaks are rare in b ball. 11 out of 12 or 13-15 are more common than a ten game streak.

hence my play on the O's

sure i could be wrong, thats the nature of a gamble, but % tilted in this case ever so slightly in my fav

good luck tonight