Ok guys I hit it big Thursday on VT and the system was dead on, so lets see how we can do this Saturday!
Michigan vs Iowa
Michigan off avg = 28.4ppg
Opposing def avg = 24.5
Michigan outperforms 3.9ppg
Michigan def avg = 19.4
Opposing off avg = 33.9
Michigan outperforms -14.5ppg
Their composites outperformance (3.9)-(-14.5) = 18.4ppg
Iowa off avg = 31.0ppg
Opposing def avg = 29.85ppg
Iowa outperforms 1.15
Iowa def avg = 17.1ppg
Opposing off avg = 24.92
Iowa outperforms -7.82
Their composites outperformance (1.15)-(-7.82) = 8.97
Now I look at home field advantage for Iowa:
2002 6/7
2003 7/7
2004 6/6
2005 4/4
So Iowa has won 95.8% of thier home games in the past 4 years.
W-L % at home L4 years >90%: 5 points
70-90%: 4 points
55-70%: 3 points
40-55%: 2 point
25-40%: 1 point
0-25%: 0 points
Iowa gets 5 points dropping Michigan's edge from 9.43 to 4.43.
Michigan+3
Ohio St. vs Indiana
Ohio St off avg = 26.5
Opposing def avg = 19.7
Ohio St outperforms 6.8ppg
Ohio St def avg = 15.3ppg
Opposing off avg = 35.18
Ohio St outperforms -19.88
Their composites outperformance (6.8)-(-19.88)= 26.68
Indiana off avg = 29.0ppg
Opposing def avg = 27.76ppg
Indiana outperforms = 1.24ppg
Indiana def avg = 25.0ppg
Opposing off avg = 27.96
Indiana outperforms -2.96
Their composites outperformance (1.24)-(-2.96)= 4.2
Home field advantage for Indiana
2002 3/6
2003 2/6
2004 2/5
2005 3/3
So Indiana has won 50% of thier home games
W-L % at home L4 years >90%: 5 points
70-90%: 4 points
55-70%: 3 points
40-55%: 2 point
25-40%: 1 point
0-25%: 0 points
Indiana gets 2 points dropping Ohio St.'s edge from 26.68 to 20.48
Ohio St -15.5 