Actually I do not use excel, even though that might be a good idea. Everything is done on paper.
Example:
Boston College avg 28.3 off 14.0 def
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Wk Forest 23.9 29.1
Virginia 25.3 21.6
Ball St 18.4 46.6
Clemson 27.3 21.1
Florida St 36.4 17.4
Army 14.0 27.3
BYU 26.0 28.4
OK, these are all of the teams Boston College has played so far this year. It shows the team averages of offensive and defensive points per game.
So Boston College avg 28.3ppg on offense
The average of every team that they have played this year of defensive points allowed is 27.35ppg
So Boston College outperforms on offense by .95ppg.
I do the same with the defense. Once you have the number for BC on the offensive and defensive side you add them together. This is BC's number So BC outperforms o noffensive by .95ppg and outperform on defensive by -10.47ppg/ Their composite performance is 11.42ppg.
Then do the exact same for the other team. Once you have factored in everything including home field points them subtract to see who has the edge. In the BC vs VT game on Thursday, VT's number is 28.65 and BC's number is 11.42 which makes the difference of 17.23ppg in favor of VT. The line is at 13 so it is in VT's favor.
Then I factor in the winning % of the home team for the last 4 years.
> 90% = 5 pts
70-90% = 4 pts
55-70% = 3 pts
40-55% = 2 pts
25-40% = 1 pt
0-25% = 0 pts
Hope this helps! |