I know it sonly Thursday, but I have some early plays already that I like.
Ohio State vs Minnesota
Ohio St Off Avg = 28.6ppg
Opp Def Avg = 22.61ppg
Ohio St Outperforms = 5.99ppg
Ohio St Def Avg = 14.6ppg
Opp Off Avg = 33.35ppg
Ohio St Outperforms = -18.75ppg
Ohio St's Composite Performance = 24.74ppg
Minnesota Off Avg = 36.6ppg
Opp Def Avg = 22.67ppg
Minnesota Outperforms = 13.93ppg
Minnesota Def Avg = 25.4ppg
Opp Off Avg = 29.71ppg
Minnesota Outperforms = -4.31ppg
Minnesota's Composite Performance = 18.24ppg
Last 4 years at home:
2005 3/4
2004 5/6
2003 5/7
2002 5/7
Minnesota has won 18/24 home games in the past 4 years, which equates to a 75% winning percentage.
>90% = 5 pts
70-90% = 4 pts
55-69% = 3 pts
40-54% = 2 pts
25-39% = 1 pt
0-24% = 0 pts
Minnesota gets 4 points dropping Ohio St's Edge from 6.5ppg to 2.5ppg.
Minnesota +4
Purdue vs Penn St.
Purdue Off Avg = 29.9ppg
Opp Def Avg = 26.02ppg
Purdue Outperforms = 3.88ppg
Purdue Def Avg = 34.0ppg
Opp Off Avg = 31.51ppg
Purdue is Outperformed = 2.49ppg
Purdue's Composite Performance = 1.39ppg
Penn St Off Avg = 36.0ppg
Opp Def Avg = 25.5ppg
Penn St Outperforms = 10.5ppg
Penn St Def Avg = 16.3ppg
Opp Off Avg = 27.21ppg
Penn St Outperforms = -10.91ppg
Penn St's Composite Performance = 21.41ppg
Last 4 years at home
2005 5/5
2004 3/6
2003 3/7
2002 7/8
Penn State has won 18/26(69%) home games in the past 4 years, giving them 3 points home field advantage. Thus, raising Penn St's Edge from 21.41ppg to 24.41ppg.
Penn State - 14
Wisconsin vs Illinois
Wisconsin Off Avg = 39.5ppg
Opp Def Avg = 30.06ppg
Wisconsin Outperforms = 9.44ppg
Wisconsin Def Avg = 24.5ppg
Opp Off Avg = 27.61ppg
Wisconsin Outperforms = -3.11ppg
Wisconsin Composite Performance = 12.55ppg
Ill Off Avg = 19.6ppg
Opp Def Avg = 23.5
Ill is outperformed = -3.9ppg
Ill Def Avg = 39.9ppg
Opp Off Avg = 27.7ppg
Ill Outperformed = 12.2ppg
Illinois Composite Performance = -16.1ppg
Last 4 years at home
2005 2/4
2004 3/7
2003 1/6
2002 3/6
Illinois has won 9/23(39%) home games in the last 4 years giving them 1 point of home field advantage. Lowering Wisconsin's Edge form 28.65ppg to 27.65ppg.
Wisconsin -20
Oklahoma vs Nebraska
OK Off Avg = 25.1ppg
Opp Def Avg = 21.78ppg
OK Outperforms = 3.32ppg
OK Def Avg = 24.6ppg
Opp Off Avg = 32.1ppg
OK Outperforms = -7.5ppg
Oklahoma Composite Performance = 10.82ppg
Neb Off Avg = 24.0ppg
Opp Def Avg = 23.15ppg
Neb outperforms = .85ppg
Neb Def Avg = 17.9ppg
Opp Off Avg = 30.9ppg
Neb Outperforms = -13ppg
Nebraska Composite Performance = 13.85ppg
Last 4 years at home
2005 4/5
2004 4/6
2003 6/7
2002 6/8
Nebraska has won 76% of their home games in the last 4 years. Raising Nebraska's Edge from 3.03ppg to 7.03ppg.
Nebraska -1.5
Now I plugged the Texas vs OSU game and Texa Edge was 36.5ppg. This is
EXACTLY what the line is. So my system is dead on with the Vegas linesmakers. I do believe
Texas will cover and I especially like the Over 31 1st Half/Over 57.5 for the game. Texas quite possibly could take care of the Over by themselves. There were about 10 other games for NCAA that I plugged in to this system, but they were so close to the line that it was more of a coin toss so I decided not to go with those. I believe Texas and Penn State to be my strongest plays. I really believe that Minnesota comes through at home against a good Ohio State team who actually struggled moving the ball offensively first half againt Indiana. Well these are my strongest plays so far for NCAA. Hope they hit! Hope we all
WIN! 