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Old 11-09-05, 01:34 AM   #1 (permalink)
Wigington
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,227
Default $$$ Wigington's NCAA Pick #1 $$$

Auburn vs Georgia

Aub Off Avg = 35.2 ppg
Opp Def Avg = 24.4 ppg
Aub = 10.8 ppg

Aub Def Avg = 12.7 ppg
Opp Off Avg = 22.4 ppg
Aub = 9.7ppg

Auburn Composite Performance = 20.5 ppg


Geo Off Avg = 28.3 ppg
Opp Def Avg = 23.9 ppg
Geo = 4.4 ppg

Geo Def Avg = 13.8 ppg
Opp Off Avg = 23.5 ppg
Geo = 9.7 ppg

Georgia Composite Performance = 14.1 ppg

Last 4 years at home

2005 4/4
2004 5/6
2003 6/6
2002 7/7

Georgia has won 95% of their home games in th past 4 years lowering Auburn's Edge from 6.4 ppg to 1.4 ppg.

Auburn +4

I really do like this play because at first glance I thought they were favoring the wrong team. My System shows that as well, which makes me more confident. Sportsbook.com shows 57% of the public is on Georgia and at Caribsports.com 62.5% is on Georgia as well. Fading the public statistically has a winning percentage of 60-65%. I do not always go by this, as noted this past Sunday in the NFL a lot of favs won big. DJ Shockley is expected to play Saturday which could make this game closer. Hoping the public pounds Georgia so I can get Auburn +4.5. Look for Auburn to win SU.

No System play here needed.

Texas -33.5

Texas at home is very dominate. I say this not only cause I am a Longhorn fan, but it is fact. Texas is 8-1 ATS and until they show weakness I feel no need to fade them.
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