Well I didn't start using it until teams had played about 5 games a piece. When I get the Edge I see how close it is to the line. If it close or sometimes dead on I then look at the teams injuries and matchups. If it is dead on with the line and I know nothing about either teams then I pass. Typically 3 points or greater than the spread is a pretty god indicator. I have seen some games where the Edge is double the spread, in that case I take it fairly large. So far 21 games under my belt and at 71% so it is good so far. I will be keeping all records so I can see how this system played out for an entire season. This is my first season handicapping any sports, this is the reason for this post. To get better. For example tonight N. Ill vs Toledo. I couldnt get to a computer before the game, but did his on paper. Toledo had a 7.6ppg Edge, so N. Ill +10.5 is the play according to the system. One game in particular sticks out in my mind. Miami vs VT. VT had a 14.5ppg Edge over Miami, but I faded this play and took Miami. Just because of how these teams match up, I knew Miami's defense could not be simulated in practice and would keep this game close. So sometimes you have to just cap the game on its own. Either way I see if you end up with 60-65% winnings that is still pretty good. Keep the comments coming guys! |