[Tommy]

UConn ended four-game loss streak last week when they KO'd South Florida from Big East race with 15-10 upset win; Huskies covered three of last four as home dog of 10+ points. Louisville is 11-3 vs spread as double digit toad favorite, and covered three of last four games overall; they've scored 41+ points in each of last seven games, covering five of them. UConn is 2-2-1 vs spread as dog this year, 4-0 vs spread in Storrs, losing only 26-24 to Rutgers, when their QB was hurt; they're 4-0 if they have +3 or better turnover ratio, 1-5 if they don't- four of their five losses are by 11+ points. Six of nine UConn games stayed under this year.

Favorite covered last four Army-Navy games. Navy won four of last five games vs Army, with last three series wins all by 28+ points. For first time since '96, this game decides Commander-in-Chief Trophy, so huge game for both sides, even moreso than normal. Ross has Cadets on four-game win streak; they've covered four of last five games, and last three tries as dog. Army was -8 in turnovers during 0-6 start, +5 during four-game win streak; they went unbeaten in November for first time in 34 years.

USC covered five of last six games vs UCLA; they won 29-24 last year, despite 235-17 edge in rushing yardage. Trojans covered just two of last eight games, as they've trailed four games at half this year, but with this last stumbling block between them and Texas matchup (on UCLA's home field), would expect more focused effort. Bruins lost last two visits here 27-0/47-22; they're 9-1, but loss was 52-14 at sub-.500 Arizona. This is first time in '05 UCLA is underdog. Five of last six Bruin games went over total. USC covered 13 of last 19 Pac-10 home games. FB White gametime decision for Trojans (shoulder).

Hawai'i lost three of last four games, has just one takeaway in last three games (-5 turnover ratio); they're 2-4 at home this season, with over 5-2-1 in their last eight games. San Diego State won last series meeting 41-40 in '02; they scored 64 points in winning last two games, and covered four of last five. Aztecs covered their last five games as underdog, and are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-league games. Hawai'i is 13-7 vs spread in non-league home games, doubt Aztecs players will be as mesmerized by paradise, since their home is pretty warm place, too.

West Virginia was coming off OT win vs Louisville when their game at South Florida was originally scheduled, but hurricane issues moved game to today. Bulls lost what basically was November night game at cold UConn last week, dashing their Big East title hopes, but they should still get to pretty good bowl, and signed Coach Leavitt to contract extension this week, ending K-State rumors. Mountaineers won last five games, covered last four, winning last three by 32,38,32 points- they're 4-0 on road, with all wins by 8+ points. USF is 4-0 at home, hammering Louisville here, 45-14. Should be good game. WVa already has Big East title, win or lose here.

Central Florida was 0-13 under O'Leary after 0-2 start this year, but they've rallied for 8-1 finish and host C-USA title game, although they lost couple of good players to injury in last game at Rice; they have +16 turnover margin in their last six games. Knights is 6-3 vs spread in last nine games, 4-0 vs spread at home; Tulsa covered five of last six games and is 6-0 vs spread on road. UCF allowed 20+ points in each of last six games, so Tulsa can move ball; Hurricane scored 38-45-38 points in their last three games. Over is 5-2 in last seven UCF games, 6-3 in last nine Tulsa games.

Colorado allowed 30 points in each of last two games, both losses; they lost 30-3 at home last week, now face juggernaut Texas squad that drilled Buffs 42-17 on Oct 15 (it was 35-10 at half), outgaining CU 486-240, outrushing them 147-44. Buffs have senior QB, but are 1-4 when allowing more than 20 points; Longhorns scored 40+ points in 10 of 11 games this season, with 25-22 win at Ohio State only time they didn't get 40. Colorado is 0-2 as underdog this year, losing by 20,25 points. Texas is 8-2-1 vs spread this year; just like USC, this is their last roadblock between them and Super Bowl-like Rose Bowl vs Trojans, but 27.5 points is awful lot of points to give team with senior QB.

LSU won, covered its last two trips to SEC title game, but that was with Saban as coach. Georgia split their last two visits to this game, but have edge with senior QB in Shockley, while soph Russell was just 13-29 passing vs Arkansas last week. LSU is 10-1 despite having positive turnover ratio in only one game all year (-8 ratio), their only loss; Tigers are 5-1 this season in games decided by four or less points. Georgia was 7-0, then lost to Florida and Auburn back-to-back, before winning last two games, allowing just 20 points; they're 2-0 as underdog this season, and had six games with positive TO ratio, none with minus ratio (+11 for year).

Florida State is on three-game losing streak for first time in 22 years; they've scored total of 36 points in losing last three games, and were crushed last two, 35-14/34-7, as injuries have beset Seminole OL. Virginia Tech lost last six games vs Florida State, so laying 14 with them, especially since FSU guys who were held out last week more likely to play here, in ACC title game. Hokies are 5-0 as road favorite this year; they crushed Virginia, Tar Heels in last two games since losing to Miami (combined score, 83-17). FSU is 1-1 as dog, upsetting Miami 10-7 in awful opening game, then last week's loss. Jacksonville site has to help Seminoles somewhat.

I've found Sun Belt games totally off-the-wall this year, with dogs winning by double digits, and very little form. Florida International returned four INT's for TD's last week in 52-6 win over Florida Atlantic, their third win in last four games. Middle Tennessee won at Troy last week, 17-7, even though their coach had been fired earlier in week. MTSU was down just 10-3 at half at NC State two weeks ago, so they have talent, to be able to hang with ACC club that long. Raiders are 0-4 if they allow more than 15 points; under is 7-3 in their games this season.