[Tommy]

Bills (4-7) @ Dolphins (4-7)
Bills are 0-5 on road, outscored by average of 29-11, but Buffalo won last three series games by 7-10-6 points, and won two of last three visits to this spot; they won first meeting 20-14, jumping to 17-0 halftime lead, then holding on, thanks to +4 turnover ratio. Miami is 0-3 this season after a win, scoring 10.3 ppg in those games; they lost their last three home games by 10,7,7 points, but have run ball for 142 yards per game last two weeks, best two games they've had back-to-back this season. Under is 3-1 in last four Buffalo games, 4-1 in last five Fish tilts.

Bengals (8-3) @ Steelers (7-4)
Steelers take over first place with win here. Pitt won first meeting 27-13, outrushing Cincy 221-91, but now Steelers lost last two games, scoring two TDs on last 25 drives- they've gained 282 or less total yards in four of last five games and are just 14 for last 49 on third down. Bengals lost four of last five visits to Steel City, but they've scored 79 points in last two games (nine TDs on last 24 drives) and averaged 8+ yards per pass attempt in each of last three games. Under is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 7-4 in Bengal games.

Texans (1-10) @ Ravens (3-8)
Houston is 0-5 on road (3-2 as road dog), losing by 15-6-32-7-14 points; they blew 24-3 halftime lead at home last week to rookie QB, losing despite gaining 133 more yards (412) than they had gained in any game this season. Ravens are 22-10 vs spread in game following their last 32 losses; they have five takeaways in last two games, after having nine in first nine, and also had four TD's last week, after having total of six in previous six games combined. Offense came after they trailed 34-0, so hard to tell if it was real. All five Raven home games stayed under the total. Texans allowed 36.3 ppg in last three games.

Titans (3-8) @ Colts (11-0)
Indy won last five series games by average score of 29-15; Titans lost last two visits here by average of 42-15, after winning four of last five, including a playoff game here. In first meeting, Colts won 31-10 in Nashville, converting seven of 10 on third down. Last five Titan losses are all by ten or less points; Tennessee lost five of last games, and is 0-2 after win, losing by 8,4 points. Colts are 0-3 as home favorite on Sunday (2-0 on Monday); they've covered seven of last eight games overall, In Colts' last six games, average of 33.8 pts were scored, just in first half.

Jaguars (8-3) @ Browns (4-7)
Extreme trap game for Jags, playing third straight week on road (historically bad spot) with backup QB making first start of year. Home side lost five of last six series games, with Jags winning last three visits to Lake Erie; they've also scored 26.5 ppg in winning last four games overall, and are +10 in turnovers in last six games. Browns won three of last four at home; they're -10 in turnovers last seven games. Favorite is 7-1 vs spread in last eight Cleveland games. Brown foes started eight of last 31 drives in Cleveland territory. Huge game for Jax playoff hopes.

Cowboys (7-4) @ Giants (7-4)
Winner takes over first place in NFC East. Dallas won first meeting 16-13, in game where both sides have four turnovers, but Dallas dominated third down, converting nine of 16 (Giants were 1 of 11). Manning averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Pokes are 3-2 on road, with all five games decided by six or less points. Giants are 3-0 after loss, scoring 31.7 ppg in those games; they've covered four of last five overall. Dallas had four extra days to prepare. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant games, 4-1-2 in last seven Dallas contests.

Packers (2-9) @ Bears (8-3)
Bear defense continues to dominate, with 12 sacks in last two games, and no opponent TD's on last 50 drives at Soldier Field. Green Bay won 19 of last 22 series games, winning last 11 visits to this site, with eight of the 11 wins by 8+ points. Pack is 1-5 on road, but only one of losses is by more than seven points; they're 1-5 in last six games, with only one loss by more than seven. 13 of last 59 Chicago drives started on plus side of 50, as defense keeps setting them up to succeed. Under is 5-1 in last six Pack games, 8-1 in last nine Bear tilts.

Vikings (6-5) @ Lions (4-7)
Mariucci's firing has Lions divided, as CB Bly called QB Harrington out after firing; Detroit lost four of last five games, and been outscored 47-14, outrushed 405-132 in last two- they've also lost three of last four at home. Vikings won four in row, first of which was 27-14 over Lions at Metrodome, Vikings' seventh straight series win; they won last three visits to Motor City by 2,1,10 points. Under is 7-3-1 in Viking games this season, 4-1-1 on road. When coach gets fired like this, do assistants spend their time preparing for games, or looking for new jobs?

Falcons (7-4) @ Panthers (8-3)
Atlanta won 12 of last 14 series games, three in row (two of three in OT); they're 4-1 in last five visits to this site, with average total of 29 in those games. Carolina is 9-5-1 vs spread in game following their last 15 wins, but offense has struggled in last four games, gaining less than 300 yards, when they had gained 317+ in four of first seven. They scored one TD on 19 drives in last two games, because defense hasn't set up short fields for them. Atlanta has run ball for 174 yards a game over last six weeks; they're 32 for last 57 on third down, while foes are just 11 for last 44. Only second grass game for Birds (17-10 at Miami).

Buccaneers (7-4) @ Saints (3-8) (@ LSU)
Saints lost seven of last eight games; they're on Monday Night Football next week, so could be looking ahead to that- they're 0-2 after win this year, losing 27-10, 52-3, arguably their worst two games of year. Problem is, Bucs just 3-4 in last seven games, with four double digit losses, after 4-0 start; they're 15 for last 55 on third down and four of their last five wins are by four or less points. In five games Simms started, they've gained 275 or less yards four times. Saints are 0-2 at LSU, scoring two TD's on 25 drives. Last four series totals were 38 or less, with average of 31.8.

Cardinals (3-8) @ 49ers (2-9)
Arizona outscored Niners 19-0 in second half of first meeting in Mexico, as altitude got to 49ers; it was just second loss in last ten series games for SF, which has played decently at home this season, but has still lost last four games overall, and converted just 21 of last 100 third down plays. Arizona lost four of five on road; they've lost their last nine games at 'stick, with last win there in '78, when Coryell led the Cardiac Cards. Average total in Cards' last four visits here is 59; second half totals in last four Cardinal games were 29-28-43-31 points, as Warner has moved ball, but hasn't won many games.

Redskins (5-6) @ Rams (5-6)
Huge comeback led by rookie QB Fitzpatrick overshadowed awful performance by Ram defense that allowed Texans 412 yards, 133 more than they had gained in any other game this season; Rams scored 32 ppg in last three games, are 3-2 at home, face Redskin team that lost last three games by combined total of 10 points. Skins are 1-4 on road, and they trailed 13-0 with 5:00 left in game they won; they have only two TD's in 25 drives on carpet, losing 36-0 at Giants, winning 14-13 at Dallas. Washington won 11 of the last 14 series games, are 3-0 in Jones Dome.

Jets (2-9) @ Patriots (6-5)
Pats are 4-0 after loss this season (3-1 vs spread) but haven't won by more than seven points since 30-20 Week 1 win over Raiders; they're 1-3 as home favorite, 3-2 SU, with wins by 10,5,7. Porous NE defense allowed 394+ total yards in each of last eight games. Jets lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they're 2-7 vs spread in last nine and 0-6 on road, with all six losses by 10+ points- they were outscored 57-3 on last two road trips. Jets scored one TD on last 27 drives, are -8 in turnovers in last three games, and were outscored 82-29 in first half of their last five games. Other than that, they've been playing great.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (7-4)
Home side won last seven Bronco-Chief games, with seven of last eight series totals 47+; Denver lost five of last six visits to this site, losing last two visits here by 1,28 points. Broncos are 9-1 in last 10 games, winning last four (three by 14+ points); they covered their last six games and outrushed last four foes 716-246. Only one of their last ten opponents rushed for more than 97 yards. Denver outrushed KC 221-74 in first meeting. Chiefs are 5-2 in last seven games; they're 7-1 if they score more than 20 points, 0-3 if they don't.

Raiders (4-7) @ Chargers (7-4)
Bolts won last four series games by 7-28-6-13 points; they won last four games overall by 8-5-38-6, as they've covered seven of last nine in mad rush for playoff spot. SD outrushed Raiders 190-38 in first meeting, easy 27-14 road win in Week 6. Raiders lost three of last four games, allowing 25+ points in four of last five; they're 4-2 vs spread after loss this year. Chargers are 13-3-1 vs spread in game after their last 17 wins; they have 343 rushing yards in last two games and scored 17 TD's on last 46 drives. Raiders picked off only one pass in last seven games.

Seahawks (9-2) @ Eagles (5-6)
Philly ended four-game skid last week, now face red-hot Seattle squad that won its last seven games, won its last three on road (but vs dregs of NFC West) and has run ball for 163 yards/game over last four weeks. Home dogs were 0-6 in NFL last week, but Monday night dogs have historically been good, especially with desperate team hosting team with division sewed up. Eagles are 4-1 at home, with only loss by point; they've run ball for 361 yards in last two home games. Favorites covered four of their last five games. Seattle 2-2 on grass this season.