 $$$ Wigington's Monday NCAA Lean $$$
YTD 43-29 @ 59.7%
Ark St (69.9) @ Ark LR (74.5)
Ark LR opened up as a 4.5 point favorite and with 79% on Ark LR and it dropped to 3.5 and now 80% is on Ark LR and line went up to 4. I really think Vegas is trying to bait with this line move. Looking at both teams, I believe this line is very sharp. These 2 teams met earlier in the '05 season each team taking 1 win. I believe that Ark St has been playing better ball and matchup very well tonight with LR. St is shooting a 3.3 FG% better than LR and outrebounding them by 1.2 per game. Both teams last games were against the same team Florida Atlantic. Ark LR won by 2 and Ark St won by 10. I know it is hard to try and cap a game based on 1 prior matchup, but I think Ark St matches up well tonight and seeing as the fade + reverse line movement I am leaning on Ark St.
Ark St +4 |