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Originally Posted by fondybadger Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around in awhile. I really should be. Biggie has got a hell of a site starting to grow here, and I wish him the best with it. Now that I got the ass kissing out of the way...
05-06 College Basketball Record….....114-96-4 -$434
1/10 2-1 +$98
1/11 6-3 +$132
I posted this last night at another site...
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I kind of need some suggestions on games to look at tomorrow. Not a whole lot stands out to me. These are the games that I'm interested in:
Detroit -2 (even if Cotton doesn't play)
Middle Tenny State -6
Louisiana Tech -2.5
DePaul +11.5
Washington State +8.5
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A friend of mine over at the other site is on these 5 games, so I thought I'd bust them down.
UALR +15.5 @ W. Kentucky $400
Detroit -1.5 @ Clev. St. $400
Hofstra -4.5 @ Towson St. $300
CS Sacremento pk @ Idaho St. $200
Wash. St. +8 @ UCLA $100
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Here's my thoughts on those games:
Arky-Lil' Rock/Western Kentucky -15.5
* W. Kentucky doesn't do well when they're a 10+ point favorite (2-8 since 1997).
* WK is 9-23 ATS in conference play last 3 years.
* Arky isn't a good road team as they're 1-5 on the road but 8-6 overall
* They lose by an average of 14 on the road.
* Arky lil rock shoots the rock like crap - 40% on the year, 37% on the road.
* Western Kentucky is a high scoring team that could really run up the score.
* Arky lil rock won at WK last year...
Pretty much a toss up in this game. Don't see enough I like in this one to go on it, but I would lean towards taking the points.
Detroit -2 at Cleveland State
* Cleveland State is pretty much the joke of the Horizon league. They're 6-31 the last 3 years Straight Up in conference play and 11-26 ATS.
* This year they're 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS.
* CS actually has played pretty well this year though. They're 4-3 ATS on the year and only lost by 8 at Michigan State and by 7 at UWM.
* Detroits numbers look pretty bad on the road, but you have to factor in a 30 point loss to South Carolina. They played tough at Louisville only losing by 10.
* Detroits a low scoring team, but Cleveland State's defense should be a remedy.
* Detroit is 16-4 SU against CS since 1997
* They're 4-1 ATS last 3 years.
* They won by 15 at home last year and return 4 starters, but they did lose at Cleveland State by 7 points last Feb. as a 1 point favorite.
I'm probably going to play Detroit for $50. $75 if Cotton plays as he's there team leader.
Hofstra -5 at Townson State
First thing to say is this looks like a hell of a play.
* Hofstra is 10-2, Townson State 6-7
* Hofstra is 6-2 ATS this year, Townson State 3-4
* Hofstra has a pretty solid defense, and Townson has played like shit the last 5 games, allowing their opponents to score almost 80 points a game.
* Both teams return 4 starters - Last year Hofstra won by 9 at home, and by 20 on the road.
$100 play for me... I'm putting it in now as I think it's going to go up.
Sacramento State -1 at Idaho State
* Sac State is 7-3 ATS, Idaho State is 4-2
* Idaho State is only 11-21 against conference opponents last 3 years, Sac is 21-10.
* Idaho State has some good numbers, but they're skewed by blowout wins against Great Falls and Rocky Mountain.
* SACRAMENTO ST is 3-1 against the spread versus IDAHO ST over the last 3 seasons - Last year they won both games by 2 points.
I'm going to play Sacramento State for $50, but I just don't have a solid feeling about this game
As for the UCLA game, I'm not even going to look at that one. Personally I think UCLA covers, but I'm not touching a Bennett coached game. They'll keep the scoring low, but it all depends on how they shoot. Could easily be a 61-40 type victory for UCLA. Washington State has played pretty good this season though.
Good luck on it. Have to choose a side, I'd taking Washington State, but the line is really coming down. Could easily be like the Penn State/Northwestern game last night.
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Now that I got you caught up on my process from last night to this morning/afternoon here is what I'm on at this time.
$100 Hofstra -5
$75 Detroit -2
$50 Sacramento State -1
$50 DePaul +12
$50 Washington -4 (tailing CollegeKingRex on this one)
I believe I'm going to make a $50 play on Louisiana Tech -2.5 as well...
I'll be back later this afternoon with more thoughts/plays if I get a chance. Good luck to ya's. |