[fondybadger]

05-06 SeasonCollege Basketball Record….....415-373-17 +$1620
January 176-146-8 +$2914
2.1-2.7 60-57-5 +$1496
2.8-2.14 44-47-2 -$896
2.15 9-12 -$288
2.16 5-1 +$125
2.17 0-8 -$770
2.18 21-15 -$353
2.19 No Plays

It's been a horrible run for me the last 10 days or so. Not sure what the hell my problem is right now. Pretty much from looking over things, I've noticed I've been taking too many road teams and especially too many favorites. I also haven't been too smart with my money management as of late. At one point on Saturday I was 8-2 and down money and another point I was 18-6 and only up $250. I'm going big on certain plays, compared to the rest. Need to correct things here for the stretch run. These next few days, I'm going to be going a bit smaller, until hopefully I can find a groove here again.

Going through the card here...

• S. Alabama is 18-6 playing an 8-16 team and they're just a 4 point favorite, although they're on the road. First meeting of the year, based on numbers a small play on bama may be warranted. Anyone familar with these teams/conference?
• West Virginia looks like one of those games that I've been getting myself in trouble with lately. A somewhat slumping team playing on the road as a small dog. I'd probably have laid a boatload on WV 10-14 days ago, now I think Syracuse is the play... Why? Somewhat situational. Cuse' needs to keep winning to assure themselves a spot in the tourney. This is an opportunity to beat a top 50 RPI team, they can't let that pass them by. West Virginia road splits also bother me somewhat. I am concerned that Cuse' seem to take games off though. So it will be a small play. Wait til tomorrow to see what the line is.
• Everything that needs to be said about Oklahoma/Texas Tech game sooner and ppa have said. What I want to point out is that Oklahoma should have the rebounding advantage in this game and have the ability to get some cheap 2nd chance points. I don't do totals often in college unless someone has a HUGE play on it and pushes me to coattail them, but I did notice 8 of the last 10 in this matchup has gone under. Both teams also tend to have a higer turnover ratio than their season averages when they meet up. I'm waiting to see what the line will do...
• Statfox is showing New Mexico St. should be a 15 point favorite and gives them the matchup edge... Looking at the numbers, I don't see that. What am I missing? Regardless I'm not touching this game.
• Nevada's a good home team and Idaho is worthless, but 16.5 on the road? Maybe take a look at a 1H line and play the game, just for the fact that's its at 4pm eastern. Nevada won by 26 at home, I can't see myself taking Idaho.***I'm a big degenerate, but I can't get a feel for this game. The more I think of it, the more I realize that I would almost have to take Idaho, and that sure the hell isn't going to happen.***
• I like Loyola because they won by 16 on the road, now they're playing at home as an 8.5 favorite. They're 8-2 ATS this year versus conference teams, one of those losses being Saturday against Gonzaga. Will more than likly play Marymount.
• Leaning heavily towards San Francisco. They won on the road by 8 and now are a 5 point favorite at home. One thing I noticed is that Santa Clara is 1-5 ATS when playing with one or less days of rest. Is that because of a short bench? They just played at Hawaii on Saturday, so they're going to be traveled out. Taking San Francisco.
• Leaning towards San Diego. They're 7-2 ATS playing teams with winning records, while St. Mary's is 2-6. San Diego is a good home team and they've already won at St. Mary's this year. I am concerned though that over the last 10 days (3 games), that SD has kind of struggled. Will be a small play on SD.
• Pepperdine has one of the best home courts in the country (say nothing about the beautiful city). This year they have have a young team, but a very experienced coach leading them in Paul Westphal the ex-Sonics/Suns headcoach. That said I just don't think Pepperdine can match up this year. Down low Batista should be able to dominate the boards, while Ravio should be able to penetrate and creat for Morrisson. I just hate how Gonzaga doesn't blow out teams that they should be all the time. I think this is going to be one of those games they are able to get the cover on though.
• What am I missing in the Chattanooga game? They won by 16 on the road, they win by an average of 9 at home and Appy State loses by 5 on the road. All the rebounding numbers point to Chat... is there an injury? Something? Definately interested in this game, but I've never even seen these two teams play. Just going off the numbers. Someone please help as I think Chat could be the best play on the board. ***Alphonso Pugh is out for the year, was nooga's best player. He's been out since Jan. 25th going 3-2. Chatty is also leading the conference in attendence, so they should have good support. No play as of now.***
• Smart play would be to take Furman and just keep fading Citadel. I'll have to see sometime tomorrow on this game. I just don't feel like getting into Furman too deep here tonight and look at the play.
• Hofstra will be a play. They play well ATS historically against W&M. They won at home by 21 points earlier in the year, have the size advantage for boards, and are a better shooting team. The one thing I don't like is Hofstra is only shooting around 64% from the charity stripe this year, making a backdoor seem possible.

PLAYS:
$50 Loyola Marymount -8.5
$100 San Francisco -5
$75 Hofstra -4