I will be looking at Sunday's game between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Atlanta Falcons. Line is still 5' at Pinny.
Do you think Tampa Bay can repeat what they did last year, by losing to New England by 28,(Tampa was shutout last week by Baltimore, their first shutout loss at home in 10 years IMO) and then going into Atlanta for the win the following week? I don't. What looks to me to be a much improved Falcon Defense this year, just can't let that happen again.
In the last 17 games between these two teams, the team that WINS, COVERS. Whether it's the favorite or the dog...16-0-1 ats. So if we can pick the winning team here, chance's are, we get the $$$$$.
Caddilac Williams rushed for a measly 26 yds last game vs a good Baltimore defense. The Caddy didn't practice thursday due to back spasm's, but was back at practice on friday. Tampa is 6-0 inn games that Caddilac rush's for 100 yds.
For the Falcon's rushing attack they have Warric Dunn coming off a game in which he just ran for a carrer best opening game total of 132 yds. The Falcon's are 9-1 since 2004 in games that Dunn rushes for 100 yds.
TRENDS:
TAMPA BAY***0-4 ats since week 2 1998 on the rd after an away game as a dog of +5 or less...(buy the hook)
TAMPA BAY***6-14-1 ats last 21 rd games
TAMPA BAY***2-5 ats last 7 September games
TAMPA BAY***10-49-4 ats last 63 games after accumulating less than 90 yds rushing in their previuos game.
TAMPA BAY+++0-3 ats last 3 after accumulating less than 250 total yds in their previous game.
ATLANTA***33-4-2 ats last 39 after accumulating more the 150 yds rushing in their previous game.
ATLANTA***4-1 ats after allowing less than 250 total yds in their prviuos game.
ATLANTA***39-12-2 ats last 53 after allowin less than 90 yds rushing in their previous game.
ATLANTA***5-2 ats last 7 games as a home favorite of 3'-10
ATLANTA***6-1-1 ats since week 8 2004 after an away game in which they were a dog of +5 or less.
Last year Tampa Bay came away with two wins vs the Falcons, that should have been two wins for Vick and crew. REVENGE?
MY PICK : ATLANTA FALCONS -5
GLTA Seps
