[Tommy]

Titans (0-4) @ Colts (4-0)- Vince Young makes first road start for Tennessee club that is scoring 11.8 ppg and has allowed 40+ pts in two of last three games. Indy won last six series games, last three by combined score of 117-30; Titans lost their last three visits to RCA Dome by 26,27,32 points; they've already thrown 40 more incompletions than their opponents, have -6 turnover ratio (T-last). Most teams try to run ball vs Colts, playing keep away from Manning, but Titans averaging 70.4 rushing ypg, so that's out. Huge spread here; Colts' wins in '06 are by 5,19,7,3 pts.

Redskins (2-2) @ Giants (1-2)- Last time we saw Giants, they trailed 35-0 in first half and then pointed fingers at each other; to make things worse, they're 3-13 in last sixteen post-bye games, losing last five in row by combined score of 104-52. Home side won last four series games, with Redskins losing last two visits here (they lost 36-0 here LY) and Giants have won first meeting between these two five years in row. Washington scored 67 points in last two games, rallying from 0-2 start; they ran ball for 386 yds in the two wins, up from 196 in their losses.

Lions (0-4) @ Vikings (2-2)- Detroit lost last eight series games, and also dropped last eight visits to Metrodome, but five of last seven losses here were by seven or less pts. Vikings are 2-2, but both their wins are by FG, and none of their games were decided by more than five points. In their last three games, Minnesota has just two offensive TDs on 34 drives, with only one TD in seven trips to red zone. Lions' defense is softer than what they've faced, but Kitna's offense has also put up 58 pts in last two games, passing for 596 yds, as Martz' system sinks in.

Bucs (0-3) @ Saints (3-1)- Gradkowski gets first pro start, as Bucs try for first win; not like he's replacing Unitas or Fouts though. Simms was spunky vs Carolina, but Bucs didn't score TD in first two games. Tampa is 4-1 in last five visits to Bayou, in series where five of last six totals were 38 or less. With rookie at QB, Saints figure to load up against run; Bucs ran ball for total of 130 yards in first three losses (combined score 67-27). Saints are T3rd in NFL with +17 IP margin; Brees has diverse weapons to dish ball to. Tampa Bay covered only four of last 16 post-bye games.

Rams (3-1) @ Packers (1-3)- If Packers couldn't cover shaky Eagle WRs Monday, they're in big trouble vs Holt/Bruce; if Rams can protect Bulger (Pack has 11 sacks in last three games) they can light up scoreboard, since Pack cut starting CB Carroll Tuesday. St Louis is 3-0 indoors, 0-1 outdoors, with only loss vs weak 49ers, so caution advised here in series that saw home side win 17 of last 20 games, with Rams dropping six of last seven visits to Dairy State. Rams are tied for NFL lead with +8 turnover ratio; they had 5,4,3 takeaways in their wins, only one in the loss at Candlestick.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Patriots (3-1)- Miami lost four of last five visits here, winning meaningless (for Patriots) Week 17 game. New England covered five of last six as pre-bye favorite, but only twice in their last 17 games vs Miami have Fish lost to Pats by more than ten points. Miami has only four TDs on 41 drives, scoring 11.3 ppg in last three games, and that was vs Bills-Titans-Texans; they're -15 in IPs, same problem Culpepper had with Vikings last year (-39 in games he started). Pats have only three takeaways in four games, and are allowing 41.1% on third down.

Bills (2-2) @ Bears (4-0)- Former Chicago coach Jauron returns to Soldier Field with Bill squad that allowed 6,12 pts in its wins, 19,28 in losses (by 2,8 pts). Home side won eight of nine series games, with Buffalo losing all four visits to this site, by combined score of 95-26. Shaky Losman vs dominating Bear defense is mismatch; Chicago's wins this year are by 26,27,3,31 pts. Bear opponents are just 11-51 (21.6%) on third down, and have only one TD in six red zone visits. NFL logic tells us that after three NFC North tilts and showdown with Seattle last week, Chicago could let down here, vs AFC foe.

Browns (3-1) @ Panthers (2-2)- Red flag for Carolina is fact that they've been outscored in second half of every game this year (49-26 total), but in two games since WR Smith has been back in lineup, Panthers scored 26,21 pts in winning twice, after scoring 6,13 in Smith-less losses. Browns rallied from 21-3 deficit to win at Oakland last week; they've been minus in turnovers in all four games, giving ball up 11 times. Cleveland has eight TDs, only one FG attempt, but Frye threw horrible red zone pick that cost Brown backers the cover. Panthers won both series meetings (31-17/13-6) but this is Browns' first visit to Charlotte.

Jets (2-2) @ Jaguars (2-2)- Jets are 2-0 on road, 0-2 at home, but lost both visits to this site (21-17/28-3); they scored 28 pts in each of last two games (7 TD's on 19 drives) and hung close vs Colts last week, despite -3 turnover ratio. Jags are 2-0 at home, 0-2 on road after OT loss last wk; their home wins are 24-17/9-0. Jets moving chains well (46.4% on 3rd down, 3rd in NFL); they're +25 in IPs, tops in league, so they fewer empty plays. Jags lost 18 of 27 3rd down plays last week, first time this year they'd won less than 52% on 3rd down, but they still scored 30 points in OT loss. Jets 3-1 as underdog in '06.

Chiefs (1-2) @ Cardinals (1-3)- Warner benched for rookie Leinart after 11 turnovers, but problem is, Leinart did only one week of training camp, so he's not ready to play in NFL yet. Warner had converted 44.2% on 3rd down in his starts; Cards' biggest issue is leaky OL that exposes an immobile QB, and that hasn't been fixed. Last time these teams met, Chiefs hung 49-0 pasting on Arizona. Chiefs split their previous two visits to desert, got first win under Edwards last week, blanking 49ers 41-0. Huard's first KC road start was 9-6 OT loss in Denver; Chiefs allowed no TDs on 23 drives in last two games.

Raiders (0-3) @ 49ers (1-3)- Not much to choose from in Bay Area, where 49ers gave up 34,38,41 pts in their losses, while Oakland blew 21-3 lead at home vs Browns last week, has scored only two offensive TDs on 35 drives, and converted just 8 of 36 on 3rd down (22.2%, last). Backup QB Walter was 9-24/46 passing last week, and Moss spent middle of week criticizing teammates. Niners are -6 in turnovers, have allowed league-high 13 TDs and have lost 59.1% of 3rd down plays (31st). Raiders won four of five games at this site; last two series meetings went to overtime.

Cowboys (2-1) @ Eagles (3-1)- Huge game for Eagles, who are 0-7 vs NFC East since start of last year; their wins this year are by 14,14,22 points, and they blew 24-7 lead in only loss. Dallas' win here last year was their first in last seven visits to Philly. Cowboys scored 72 points in winning last two games; they've scored eight TDs on 22 drives in two games Owens has played (I hear he's not too popular with Eagle fans). Philly leads NFL with 14 offensive TDs; McNabb is first QB since '83 (Fouts) to have 24+ completions of 20+ yards in first four games of season. Guess their WRs are better this season.

Steelers (1-2) @ Chargers (2-1)- Marty has to let Rivers make few plays, or else his ultra-conservative style will strangle a Charger team that should have won in Baltimore last week, outgaining Birds 284-206, outrushing them 150-56. Pitt won last five series games and 10 of last 12; they covered four of last five after a bye. SD defense has allowed only three TDs on 33 drives, so Steeler offense (two TDs on last 22 drives) will find going tough, but if Steelers take LT away, can Rivers (7-26 on 3rd down last two games) make plays to keep chains moving? Chargers are 5th in red zone offense, Steelers 29th.

Ravens (4-0) @ Broncos (2-1)- Resourceful Baltimore found ways to weasel out wins last two weeks, but opposing QBs were rookies; now they face veteran Plummer coming off bye. Broncos are 13-3 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games, winning last three by combined score of 102-38 (34-13 avg). Billick won four of last five vs Shanahan, losing here 12-10 last year, in game where Baltimore had pair of empty red zone trips, while Plummer was 8-16 on 3rd down. Ravens have forced 28 3-and-outs on 50 drives, helping Ravens to field position edges in last three games. Denver is just 35.7% on 3rd down this year; they'll need to move chains again to win this game.