BCS Championship Preview
Everything has gone right for the Ohio State Buckeyes so far this season. They completed their schedule with a 12-0 record, got past Big Ten rival Michigan, retained the top ranking from start to finish, and got a Heisman Trophy for quarterback Troy Smith. Now all that's left for the Buckeyes to do is win the national title game on Monday.
And both oddsmakers and bettors like Ohio State's chances of getting that 13th victory when they play the Florida Gators at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (8:30pm ET, FOX). The Buckeyes opened as big 8-point favorites back when the bowl lines came out, and action through the month of December only dropped that line to 7 or 7.5 at most books. The game's total has gone from an opening 48 to a current 46 points.
So let's look at those numbers first. We know the Buckeyes and the Gators were a combined 24-1 straight-up this season, but how well did Ohio State and Florida pay off for their supporters? Putting money down on Ohio State proved to be lucrative; Troy Smith and company went 9-3 against-the-spread in 2006. As well, the Buckeyes were 4-1 ATS away from their home stadium and 8-3 ATS as the favored team. However, Ohio State did pick up two ATS losses in their final three games, including vs. Michigan.
Florida, on the other hand, only managed to cover the spread in three of their 11 contests in 2006, and they were 0-4 ATS on the road. The Gators, though, did cover the spread in their last game, a 38-28 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks that allowed them to move up to the No. 2 ranking and earn a shot at the national title. The BCS Championship Game marks the first time all year the Gators are listed as the underdog.
As for the total, OVER bettors have lost a bundle on both Ohio State and Florida so far this season. The Buckeyes were 3-9 on the OVER/UNDER in 2006, while the Gators were 3-8. Both teams, though, are coming off convincing OVER results - the Buckeyes and Wolverines combined for 81 points in their clash back on November 18, while the total for the big Gators/Razorbacks contest on December 2 had been listed at 45 points.
One big question for Ohio State in this matchup - will they be rusty? The Buckeyes haven't seen any game action since beating Michigan 50 days ago. The Gators have played twice since then - topping both Florida State and Arkansas in high-profile matchups. Smith went 29-of-41 for 316 yards against the Wolverines, with four touchdown passes and one interception. Antonio Pittman had 18 carries for 139 yards and a score, while Ted Ginn Jr. had eight catches for 104 yards and a single touchdown.
Gators quarterback Chris Leak is coming off a poor outing in the SEC title game against Arkansas. Leak completed just 16-of-30 pass attempts for 189 yards, with one touchdown (plus one rushing touchdown) and two interceptions. Percy Harvin had six carries for 105 yards and a score, and five catches for 62 yards and a score. Against the Seminoles Leak completed 21-of-34 pass attempts for 283 yards with two TD tosses.
Florida played three other times against ranked opponents in 2006 - beating Tennessee and LSU, but getting tagged for a loss by Auburn in mid-October. Leak threw for just 108 yards against the Tigers, and Harvin was held to just 66 yards on the ground. Those two will need to step up their games against top-ranked Ohio State on Monday night if the Gators have any chance of proving everyone wrong and winning the game. |