[Hobart]

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NCAA BB

Write-up - PART 1

1-27-07




Michigan is 0-6 vs Indiana last three years, losing last three in this gym, 70-63/62-53/61-56. Wolverines lost last two road tilts, 67-53 at Purdue, 71-58 at Wisconsin. Hoosiers are 3-0 at home in Big 11, 2-1 as home favorite, winning 73-51/85-58/71-64.

Cincinnati lost 76-57 at Georgetown in first Big East meeting LY (+5); Bearcats are 1-4 in league, losing road games 74-59 and 77-76 at South Florida, Syracuse. Hoyas won last three in league by 14,16,14 pts; they're 2-1 vs spread as a home favorite.

Home side won last six Xavier-Dayton games, with Flyers 0-3 in last three visits here, 60-55/74-65/67-60. Dayton is 0-3 on road in A-14, losing 75-74/80-59/93-89; loss at Duquesne wasn't good Xavier is 2-0 at home, beating Temple 76-68, UMass 83-77.

Minnesota won four of last five games vs Penn State; Lions lost last two visits here, 83-62/78-62. Both sides lost five games in row after winning Big 11 opener. Lions lost their three games on road, 64-60 at Purdue, 77-57 at Michigan, 79-63 at Iowa.

North Carolina beat Arizona 86-69 LY in Chapel Hill; Tar Heels are 5-1 in ACC, 13-1 out of ACC, with only loss to Gonzaga club on neutral floor. Arizona ended three-game skid Wednesday; in reality, this game means lot more to Arizona than Carolina.
Northeastern beat Delaware twice LY, 73-71/80-66. Delaware is awful this year, 1-8 in CAA, losing road games 79-60/62-47/75-50 83-48/85-63 (1-3 as road dog). Huskies are 4-1 at home in CAA, 2-0 as home favorite, with home wins by 7,15,10,16 points.

Southern Miss lost 75-62 at home to Memphis Jan 13, making only 35.4% from floor, but Eustachy has Eagles 3-2 in C-USA; they've lost six in row vs Memphis, losing last three visits to the Pyramid, 80-41/60-46/74-57. Tigers are 4-2 as fave, 1-2 at home.

Ole Miss lost last four games vs Vanderbilt, 77-65/70-50/73-51/ 77-62, with Rebels losing last visit here by 15. Vandy is 4-1 last five games, after winning last two, at Kentucky, at LSU. Rebels just beat Tennessee; they're 0-3 on road, losing by 10,7,9 pts.

Colorado lost last six games vs Kansas, losing three in row at Lawrence, 75-54/89-60/78-57. Buffs are 1-5 in Big 12, 0-2 as road dog, losing 78-54 at Oklahoma, 71-50 at Nebraska. Kansas is 4-1 in Big 12, 2-3 as favorite, winning home games 87-57 and 80-77.

Oklahoma is 6-0 vs Texas A&M last three years, winning last three visits here, 45-44/70-54/91-79, but Sooners are 0-3 on road, losing 68-54 at Tech, 80-69 at Texas, 66-61 at Stillwater. Aggies lost last game at Tech; they're 2-0 at home, winning by 4,18 pts.

George Washington is 4-0 vs Rhode Island last three seasons winning last visit here, 68-39, but Rams are 6-1 in A-14, winning all four home games, by 3,1,11,3 pts. GW also won its last four games; their only conference loss was 91-84 at Massachusetts.

Indiana State upset Creighton 55-52 at home Jan 4; Bluejays were just 4-20 from arc. ISU lost last three visits to Omaha, 67-62 74-55/69-65, but they've lost last four games- they covered last three tries as road dog, with road losses 80-60/74-68/74-64.

Illinois won last four games vs Purdue, winning last two visits to Mackey, 68-59/81-79ot; Illini are 1-2 on Big 11 road- they won last game vs Indiana, holding IU to 43 pts. Purdue is 2-0 at home in Big 11, beating Penn State 64-60, Michigan 67-53.

Illinois State lost last seven games vs Southern Illinois, losing last three visits to Carbondale, 56-44/61-49/57-40. Redbirds are 1-3 as MVC road dog, losing 69-41/79-71/70-66/88-67. Salukis are 4-1 in last five games, winning last two by total of three points.

Wyoming beat TCU twice LY, in Frogs' first year in MVC, by 67-65/68-64 scores. TCU lost last four games, 89-65/66-54/75-66/ 72-39; they're 1-2 as road dog. Cowboys are 6-0 vs spread in the MWC, 2-1 at home, 1-0 as fave, winning at home by 10ot,5 pts.

Arkansas crushed Alabama 88-61 in SEC opener for both, as Razorbacks led 44-20 at half, held Tide to 35.5% from the floor, but Hogs are 0-3 on SEC road, losing by 7,2,6 pts. Alabama won their two at home; they won last one at buzzer, after trailing 15-0.

Visiting team won three of last four Cleveland State-UIC tilts, with teams splitting last two games at this site. Vikings are 1-7 in Horizon, 0-5 on road, 1-3 as road dog, losing 70-45/66-55/65-53/ 60-48/68-63 on road. Flames lost last three games, by 11,12,20.
Kent State is 4-0 vs Northern Illinois last three years, winning last two visits here, 72-61/69-67; Flashes won four of its last five are 2-2 on MAC road. Huskies lost last five games, by 1,3,11,16, 23 pts. Kent's last three wins are by 2,1,6 points.

Western Kentucky won three of its last four games vs Denver taking last two visits here, 71-70/78-65; Hilltoppers lost last two road games, are still 7-3 in Sun Belt. Denver covered last seven games, but are 2-8 in league, winning two of last three at home.

Butler is 6-1 in Horizon, but their last two road games went OT and they've lost last three trips to Detroit, by 2,13,6 pts, as home side won last six series games. Detroit is 4-4 in Horizon, with the four losses by 1,1,2,6 pts. Butler is 5-2 vs spread as a favorite.

Hofstra beat Towson State 79-74 at home nine days ago, with Pride shooting 59.1% from floor, making 10-18 treys, their sixth win in last seven vs Tigers- they lost here 94-91 LY. Towson is 4-5 in CAA, 2-2 at home, losing to contenders VCU, Geo Mason

Home side won four of last five Wake Forest-Floirida St tilts, with Deacons losing last two visits here, 91-83ot/75-70. Wake is 1-6 in ACC, losing last five games, by 10,14,22,12,28 pts. State lost last game on trey at buzzer; they won last two at home

VCU is 9-0 in ACC, but is underdog for second time this week they're 4-0 on road, with three wins by 11+ pts. Visiting team is 4-1 in last five series games, with Rams winning last two visits in this gym, 62-59/70-69. Drexel is 7-2 in CAA, 3-1 at home.
Oregon State lost five of last six vs Washington, losing three in row at Seattle, 69-65/63-45/80-79; young Huskies put serious energy into win vs Oregon- they're still just 2-6 in Pac-10. OSU is 3-0 as Pac-10 road dog, with away scores 72-83/67-59/55-70.

Villanova is 3-2 in last five vs Notre Dame; four of five were won by six or less; Irish lost 102-87 at Villanova ten days ago, as Wildcats shot 56.7% from floor, made 10-21 treys. Irish are 4-3 at home in Big East, 0-3 on road, winning home tilts by 16,3,12,24.

Texas Tech just beat Kansas, A&M at home, big week, now they go visit Missouri squad they've beaten three times in row, 73-55/78-62/87-76. Mizzou are 1-4 in Big 12, losing both at home by total of five pits. Tech is 1-1 on road, losing 73-70 at Baylor.

UTEP lost 66-55 at Central Florida LY (-3); Knights are 1-2 on road, with both losses in OT- they led 35-15 at half in Houston Wednesday, still lost. UTEP is 3-0 as C-USA home favorite, in wins by 76-63/88-64/68-50. UCF is 2-1 vs spread as underdog.

Wright State lost its last two visits to Loyola, 76-63/65-51, but Raiders are 4-1 in last five games- they beat Ramblers 81-55 back on Jan 10, shooting 56% from floor. Loyola lost in OT to Butler at home Thursday; they're 3-1 at home, but 1-3 last four overall.

Florida won last three games vs Auburn, 69-57/84-78/68-52; Gators are 5-0 in SEC but covered only one of last four games; their road wins are 84-50 at South Carolina, 70-67 at Miss State. Auburn is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road, with losses by 27,2,11 pts.
Home side won five of last six Air Force-BYU games, as Air Force lost two of last three in Provo: 59-65/52-49/61-67. BYU is 3-0 at home in MWC, winning 80-58/89-65/89-81. Falcons are 6-1 in league, losing by six at Utah; this is first time they're a dog.

Cal beat USC three times LY, but now Trojans have the better squad at 5-3 in league, 2-1 on road. Bears got housed at home by UCLA Thursday, after leading 16-8; visitor is 7-1 vs spread in their league games. Last three Cal opponents shot over 50%.

Baylor is 0-6 vs Texas last three years, losing last three visits to Austin, 90-63/79-60/79-57; Bears are 1-5 in Big 12, 1-2 as road dog, losing away games 81-77/69-60/82-56- they're 0-4 vs spread if they score less than 73. Texas is 2-0 at home, winning by 20,11

Utah won five of last six games vs San Diego State, winning last three trips to Cox Arena, 67-65/61-41/66-52. Aztecs are 2-4 in MWC, but won last two home games, beat Colo St, New Mexico Utah is 0-3 on road, losing 97-94ot/73-57/86-82ot.

Bowling Green won three of last four games vs Central Mich, winning last visit here, 77-73. Falcons lost their last five games, are 0-3 on MAC road, losing 67-49 at Ohio, 66-60 at Miami, 62-61 at Kent. Chippewas lost last three games by 10,7,20 points.

Akron, Western Michigan split last six meetings, going 1-1 vs each other in last two MAC tourneys. Zips won five games in a row- they're 3-0 at home in MAC, winning by 2,10,7 pts. WMich won last three games; they're 1-2 on MAC road, winning at BG.


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Saturday's Tip Sheet - (Author unknown)

1-27-07



The gambling gets started early Saturday with a pair of games going at noon on ESPN and ESPN2. Michigan will go into Bloomington to try and knock off Indiana as a seven-point underdog.

Xavier will play host to Dayton in the other noon tip as a 14-point ‘chalk.’

The action really heats up at 1:00 when a slumping Arizona squad plays host to North Carolina, which has rolled to three double-digit victories since suffering its only ACC loss at Virginia Tech.

Other notable television games include Oklahoma at Texas A&M, Villanova at Notre Dame, Syracuse and Louisville and then the nightcap game: Michigan State at Ohio St. at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Let’s take a look at a few of these games before going through some Bonus Nuggets.

**North Carolina at Arizona**

--Arizona (14-5 straight up, 8-9 against the spread) is off a 71-47 win over an abysmal Arizona State team, but the Wildcats lost four of their previous five games. That slump would quickly be forgotten with a win over the Tar Heels.

--Most spots are listing North Carolina (18-2 SU, 12-4 ATS) as a 2 ½-point favorite. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the total at 163.

--Arizona has been an underdog just once this year. The Wildcats hooked up their backers by taking the money as six-point underdogs in a 73-69 loss at UCLA.


**Villanova at Notre Dame**

--Notre Dame (16-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) has lost two of its last three games to add significance to this crucial Big East home game.

--Since losing at Syracuse, Villanova (14-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) has won three straight games both SU and ATS.

--Most spots have installed the Irish as three-point favorites.

--The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals. Notre Dame has covered the spread in four of those five games.

--The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Villanova’s eight road games.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker John Hurst thinks Jay Wright might be doing his best coaching job to date with this team. Hurst told VI, “Wright is a terrific coach. He had tons of success with the four-guard system last year, but even after losing three of those guys, he has that team playing well. Nobody expected Villanova to beat Texas without Curtis Sumpter.” (Sumpter was out against Texas but is “probable” at Notre Dame.)

--ESPN will have the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.


**Florida at Auburn**

--Most sports books are listing the nation’s top-ranked team as an 11-point road favorite for Saturday’s 5:00 p.m. Eastern tip-off.

--Florida (18-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is off a non-covering 70-67 win at Mississippi State on Wednesday. The Gators are the only unbeaten team in SEC play. They have won 11 in a row SU, but that stretch has only netted a 4-4 spread mark.

--The Gators are 5-3-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.

--Auburn (13-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) is 3-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, including back-to-back outright wins over Tennessee and Alabama.

--We’re only six games into conference play and every other team in the SEC West is below .500. Nevertheless, Auburn is – at least for now – sitting in first place in its division all alone. That’s a first in Jeff Lebo’s three-year tenure that’s been a trying experience similar to that of Dennis Felton’s at Georgia. (Both coaches inherited probation from Cliff Ellis and Jim Harrick, respectively.)

**Michigan State at Ohio State**

--Ohio State (17-3 SU, 11-7 ATS) is an 8 ½-point ‘chalk’ at most books. The Buckeyes are off a 59-50 win at Northwestern as 10-point favorites.

--Michigan State (17-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS since a blowout loss at Indiana.

--The Spartans have lost only one game by more than seven points this year. That was the aforementioned defeat from the Hoosiers by a 73-51 count.

--Tom Izzo’s team has seen the ‘under’ produce an 11-5 overall record and a 4-1 mark in its road games. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the Spartans’ last six outings.

--Michigan St. is 0-2 both SU and ATS as an underdog this year.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘under’ is 10-2 in North Carolina’s last 12 games with a total.

--Speaking of the Tar Heels, they are tied with Davidson for the best ATS record in the country (12-4). Four schools have 12-5 records: Ole Miss, Stanford, Weber St. and California.

--Former VI cohort Jim Lamar is the General Manager of the Osceola, the magazine that covers Florida State sports. When Lamar appeared on Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours, he said, “Any number less than 20 should merit a play on FSU. Wake is just terrible this year.” As of early this morning, the Seminoles were just 13 ½-point favorites.

--Air Force is a short ‘dog today at BYU. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS in four previous games as underdogs.

--Texas Tech is a 2 1/2-point underdog today at Missouri. The Red Raiders are off upset wins at home over Texas A&M and Kansas last week. Bobby Knight's team has covered the spread in each of its last four games as an underdog.

--SEC West teams have combined for an 0-16 record on the road in conference games.
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