[fondybadger]

12:20 #13 Davidson vs #4 Maryland -6.5
I'm a big fan of Davidson +7.5, but I think they may be a bit overwhelmed if Maryland plays like they did during their winning streak to end the season. A part of me wants to lock in Davidson right now as I'm sure the line will drop, but I think as it does Maryland is looking that much better. Davidson should be able to keep up with Maryland somewhat on the boards and they have the wild card in Curry. What scares me taking Davidson is my leading scorer is a freshmen, who is not named Carmelo Anthony. Thus with Dell Curry's kid leading Davidson, I'm a bit hesistant about my chances. As the line continues to drop, I think I'll take the leadership abilities of Maryland and make them a small play.
PLAY: $100 Maryland -6 -120

12:25 #10 Texas Tech vs #7 Boston College
A pretty tough matchup for both teams. I've been reading some quotes from Boston College and it sounds like they're making excuses for their late season slide. BC coach Al Skinner, "The ACC is the best league in the country. Once we get out of this freakin' league, we'll be fine. I'm not saying it's gonna be easy. But it will be easier than it was in this league." While guard Sean Marshall said, "We just want to get out there right now and play someone who isn't so familiar with the ACC. I think that's very important. It seems like every team now just knows too much about the way we play. Teams have tried to take things away from us before, but it just seems like they've been able to do it a lot more lately." I can't help but laugh at their logic. The team has struggled since Center Sean Williams was dismissed from the team. The 6'10 player was the teams leading shot blocker and BC has gone 7-7 since he's been gone. If they think Bob Knight isn't going to know BC inside and out and have his team ready they're crazy. BC doesn't really have a whole lot of scoring anymore besides Jared Dudley. If Texas Tech can take away his inside presence, like has been happening to BC lately, then they should have a solid shot at wining. Texas Tech is 4th in the country at 41.6% in three pointers. They rank in the top 20 in fewest turnovers and will play a grind it out style. TT has 6 wins in their last 8 games and have played a lot better as the season progressed. They're not that great rebounding over in banging inside blocking shots, but with teh dismissal of Sean Williams, neither is BC. I'll take Bobby Knight and Texas to pull off the minor upset.
PLAY: $175 Texas Tech +3

12:40 #11 Stanford vs #6 Louisville
Stanford in my mind doesn't belong in the field, but then I haven't seen more than 1 or 2 of their games this season. Stanford had some big early wins but struggled down the stretch, losing four of five, including a quarterfinal loss to USC in the Pac 10 tournament. The Stanford front line, featuring the Lopez twins, can be dominant at times. They've beaten UCLA, Oregon, Washington State and USC within the Pac 10, along with Virginia and Texas Tech outside the league. Stanford will have a healthy Lawrence Hill and Anthony Goods should be back from his ankle sprain. Louisville has battled injuries all season and have gotten hot at the right time. The injuries may help them in the tournament as it forced their young players into a more prominent role. Eight of the eleven scholarship players for Louisville are freshmen or sophomores and they're joined by starters Juan Palacios, David Padgett, and Brandon Jenkins. I really like the overall talent of Louisville and I trust the coaching advantage for Rick Pitino.
PLAY: $250 Louisville -5

2:40 #14 Oral Roberts vs #3 Washington State -6.5
Washigton State Coach Tony Bennett was my favorite player growing up when he played for UWGB and upset Cal led by Jason Kidd and Lamond Murray. I'm banking on this game being a relatively low scoring game, that Oral Roberts takes a small lead for most of the game. I think they'll have the best player on the floor in Caleb Green and he'll be joined in the starting lineup by four more upper classmen. I think Oral Roberts is a team that really plays to their opponents and that's why I'm not as concerned about some of their earlier stumbles. It does worry me a bit that people are all over the Oral Roberts bandwagon, and I hope this is one of those games that the public is right on. If Washington State is hot from beyond the arc, no change for Oral Roberts
PLAY: $200 Oral Roberts +6.5 & $50 Oral Roberts +7

2:50 #12 Old Dominion vs #5 Butler -1.5
I think this is one of the hardest first round games to call. Butler is a team that can beat ANY team in the country, but with their low scoring offense they are a candidate to be upset by any team in the country. It is my belief that Butler's early season NIT trip and playing in MSG will have the team more than comfortable to make a run deep into the tournament. Unfortunately, the matchups aren't too kind. I think that with all of the controversy that is Old Dominion in/out of the tournament will have an effect on the psyche of the team. What needs to be asked is if Old Dominion will feel relief they got in and are already "happy" with their season? I'm not sure. I think Butler's defense, experience, and expectations will lead to a narrow win over Old Dominion.
PLAY: $175 Butler -1.5

2:55 #15 Belmont vs #2 Georgetown -16
I initially liked Belmont looking at the numbers, but after giving it some more thought, Georgetown is the play. Although Belmont didn't really lose big this season (16 at Illinois, 9 at Michigan State), but that's about all they've played. They don't really have that great of a team looking at their numbers and anytime they've played a BCS conference team, they've been dominated on the boards. With Georgetown having the #5 scoring defense in the country, points are going to be a premium in the game for Belmont. Belmont has six players that average between 5.1 and 9.5 points a game and two in doubled figures, plus three guys who have some size. Last season Belmont lost 78-44 to UCLA in the first round and I look for something similar this post season. As for Georgetown capability to beat a team by the spread they've beaten such schools as Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts, Michigan, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Seton hall, Depaul, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, and Pittsburgh by 15 points or more. Add Belmont to the list of blow out victories.
PLAY: $100 Georgetown -16

3:10 #14 Pennsylvania vs #3 Texas A&M -13
Penn has been to the Big Dance the last three years and have a upper class led team, led by a head coach making his first trip. Penn has won their last 10 games and have had their trip locked up for a long time now winning the conference, with no conference tourney. Looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how Penn would have a chance in this game. Penn is pretty bad from the line, they allow a high 3pt %, and they can't rebound. Texas A&M leads the nation in field goal percentage at 37.1%. Acie Law is one of the top players in the country that can take over the game at any time, and helps the Aggies rank 6th in the country in assist and 3rd in 3pt % accuracy. Looking at how Penn has done out of conference with a 3-10 ATS mark, I look for a blowout similar to what they went through losing to UNC by 40+ earlier in the season.
PLAY: $325 Texas A&M -13

5:10 #11 George Washington vs #6 Vanderbilt -3.5
George Washington can give a lot of teams fits with their their pressure defense causing all kinds of turnovers. Thankfully for Vanderbilt they only average 12 turnovers a game and should be able to handle GW's pressure. I don't really have a great feel of this game, but I think Vandy has shown more so far this season with what they've down in the SEC. George Washington should be able to hang close, but Vandy will hit free throws down the stretch to preserve the win and the cover.
PLAY: $100 Vanderbilt -3 -115

7:10 #11 VCU vs #6 Duke -6.5
I'm bouncing back and forth on this game. When the lines first came out I LOVED VCU +7.5. I've waited a bit now and the line is bouncing back and forth between +6.5 and +7. VCU spreads the floor, has athleticism, and can drive Duke crazy with solid play. After looking over how VCU has played out of conference and their lack of tourney experience or playing "big time teams" I'm not completely sold on them. Their out of conference schedule was pretty damn weak with their best win versus Houston. They lost by three against Xavier and they lost to Bradley by 9. I'm going to watch the line in this game a bit, but the longer I wait the more I'm liking Duke.
PLAY: PENDING

7:10 Central Conneticut vs Ohio State -21.5
I'm laughing my ass off thinking about Central Conneticut and their three guard and two forward starting lineup trying to stop Greg Oden. The starting five is 6', 6'3, 6'3, 6'4, and 6'7. Ohio State's backup guards are bigger than Central Conneticut's starting forwards. Oden and Hunter are goin to have a block party in this game. Central Conneticut was beaten by 20 at Michigan and 27 to Davidson. Ohio State being out of the Big 10 conference play should be able to increase their scoring ability and win this game by 30+.
PLAY: $100 Ohio State -21.5

7:20 #9 Michigan State -2.5 vs #8 Marquette
Don't have a lot of numbers and stats to toss at you in this game. I've watched these two teams more than enough to feel I have a good handle on them. Michigan State is mostly a one trick pony with Drew Neitzel and if he gets hot MSU is dangerous. That said, Marquette has the guard play and defensive players, especially with a healthy McNeal, that they'll have a fresh body in his face the entire game just like Wisky did in the Big 10 tournament. I look for this game to be a chance for Tom Crean to exit Tom Izzo's shadow and student beating the teacher.
PLAY: $200 Marquette +2.5 & $50 Marquette ML +105

7:25 #15 Weber State vs #2 UCLA -20
My main thoughts are UCLA plays up or down to their opponents and in a game like this will play a slower, more deliberate style. Weber State has some solid players that will put up a fight and towards the end UCLA will pull away and allow Weber State to cover with a loss of 15-17 points. Subconciously, I don't see Ben Howland wanting to embarass the school he played for.
PLAY: $100 Weber State +20

9:40 Wright State vs Pittsburgh -9.5
Who is Wright State? Well there best player is 5'11 G DaShaun Wood who averaged 19.8 ppg and 5 rpg. Their starting lineup has 2 seniors and two freshmen, but no one in their top 8 in the rotation his over 6'8. Their best wins this season were against Butler (in conference tourney upset), Marist, and Cal State Fullerton. Wright State lost to Bradley by 39, LSU by 26, and Butler by 31. When they don't show up, they really don't show up. Pittsburgh is a senior laden team led by 7' Aaron Gray. With Gray down low and outside shooting by Fields, Cook, and Graves Pittsburgh and a nice inside/out combo. They'll definately have the size working in their favor and should be able to control the board. Pittsburgh not only played very well in the Big East, but played Wisconsin and Oklahoma State in the regular season and beat FSU, Washington and Auburn. With the size advantage inside they'll focus to shut down Wright State's 3-point shooting, and Pittsburgh led the Big East in 3point defense, only allowing 28.7% in conference play. I look for Pittsburgh to finally make a run into the tourney and that starts with a DD first round win.
PLAY: $175 Pittsburgh -9.5

9:40 Eastern Kentucky vs North Carolina -25.5
The Eastern Kentucky Colonels advance to the tournament for the second time in three years, winning 11 of their last 13 games. EKU has a perimeter-based offense, with tournament MVP Mike Rose leading the team in scoring at 15.3ppg. Senior Julian Mascoll is the team's top defender who also leads in assists and steals. 6'8 Darnell Dialls is the go to guy in the post. The Colonels play pretty solid defense but lack size like most small conference teams. They were blown out by Ohio State early in the season by 29 points, lost to Western Kentucky by 23 points, lost to Kentucky by 13 (outrebounded by 12, but Kentucky turned the ball over 16 times), other than that they haven't played anyone. UNC has been a favorite of 20 plus points 8 times this season and they've gone 6-2 in those games. The two they didn't were NCST -21 (they won by 19) and their first game of the year against Sacred Heart where UNC scored 101 points, but allowed 80. UNC will be able to cruise in this game and this is one large spread I feel very comfortable taking.
PLAY: $100 North Carolina -25.5

9:40 #9 Xavier -1 vs #8 BYU
Xavier has five upper classmen starting for them and four of them average in double figures. Both Justin Cage and Justin Doellman have a lot of experience in the tournament, as they contributed to Xavier's run to the Elite 8 as freshmen. BYU will be able to control the glass in this contest, but will struggle to stop Lavendar from penetrating and dishing Doellman from hitting from outside.
PLAY: $100 Xavier -1

9:55 Gonzaga vs Indiana
Indiana will absolutely light up Gonzaga from the outside and with the suspension of Heytvelt, they'll have no answer for DJ White as Sean Mallon hasn't stepped up as much as he needs to. Ratliff coming off the bench for Indiana will be a decisive factor as I don't feel that Gonzaga has the players or experience to contend in this game. Derek Ravio will give it all he has, but I really don't feel it will be enough.
PLAY: $325 Indiana -1 -115

RECAP OF THURSDAY
I'm a bit concerned I have as many favorites as I do on the opening day (11 or 12), but I feel the matchups on Thursday give the favorites the benefit of the doubt. Bought a half point on a couple games to be on the safe side. If there's any games you want to get into a bit more depth let me know.