The NCAA Basketball Tournament will be down to just four teams following Sunday’s games. This distinguished group is commonly known as the Final Four. However, though two of the Final Four are in place already, the others will be decided today, as the East and Midwest Regions crown their representatives. Here are some key Elite 8 round trends to watch for today.
The Elite 8 round had historically produced the biggest percentage of blowout games, most often won by the better seeds. However, all that has changed the last two years as lower seeds have swept this round against the spread and have produced some otherwise thrilling games. In addition, the Elite 8 round has also produced some higher scoring games, with the total average points per game of 148.2 being the highest on any round, with 20 of the 31 totaled games going OVER:
- 24 of the 36 games in the round have involved #1 seeds. They are just 13-11 SU and 7-15-2 ATS (31.8%). In fact, heading into 2007 play, #1 seeds have won just four of their last 11 games in the Elite Eight and are 2-9 ATS in that span.
- The #3 seeds own a 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS mark when matched against #1’s but just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS otherwise.
- #5 and #8 seeds have combined for a 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS record in Elite 8 action. The only two teams to not advance to the final four from this group were Rhode Island, a # 5 seed in ’98 who fell 2 points shy of Stanford, and Alabama in ’04, who lost to eventual champion Connecticut by 16.
- The only one of the eight favorites of more than 8.5-points to lose straight up was Arizona in ’98, who lost to Utah by 25 points. That game marks the second “easiest” ATS wager over the past five years as the 35-1/2 point differential from the game spread fell just shy of the 38-1/2 point difference in UCLA’s 105-70 second round upset over Maryland in 2000.
- The ACC & Big Ten have made the most of their Elite 8 opportunities. The ACC is 9-1 SU & 5-4-1 ATS, while the Big Ten is 8-4 SU & 7-4-1 ATS since ’98.
- Lower seeds have held a large advantage in this round since 1998, going 24-10-2 ATS. Those less than 7-point underdogs or playing as favorites have been an almost sure-fire bet, going 16-6 ATS (72.7%)
- OVERs hold a significant 31 to 20 edge vs. UNDERs in this round. More notably though, in games with totals of 142 or less, the OVER has been spectacular, going 13-4, a conversion rate of 76.5%. In this case, what looks to be a low scoring game has in fact been quite the opposite. In fact, the Connecticut-George Mason game of 2006 blew away its total by 34 points.
- For those looking for a nice parlay in the Elite Eight round, take note that in the 10 games that the favorite has covered in this round, the OVER is 8-1-1.
By
Sportsbook.com