Buckery agree 100% here. The draw comes out on July 16,2005. But given this is grass, an outright pick this early on Federer with THAT LINE is warranted, IMHO.
Federer, as you stated out classes everyone on this surface. Can he go down? of course he can, hits a hot player look out. He started off slowly this week but is starting to heat up--that match vs Haas was NOT AS CLOSE as the score indicated; NEVER FACED break point and faile dto convert numerous break point chances. As Buck stated there are onyl a handfull of players in a best of five on grass that can hurt him-makes this wager appealing.
Federer ON GRASS since 2003 (2 full seasons and this yr); 29-0 4 ATP titles. 75 SETS played he has won 70!!!
On grass to win you need the following ( a player who has both tools and does both exceptionally well can dominate this surface, ex., Pete Sampras--IF THERE WAS EVER A PLAYER WHO WAS IDEAL FOR GRASS IT WAS PETE, what a clinic in serve and volleying, great great great great kick serve!!!).
a) Serve-- of the three main surfaces (grass, clay, hardcourt) a serve will go 'fastest' off of grass. Hence, less reaction time to return hence greater probability of service winners. Need a big serve. Just look at the players that play well on this surface, most all have big serves;
ex; I Karlovic-- probably BEST example here. Has a massive serve and that's it. No tools from the baseline; record on grass since 2001 including challengers ; 37-16 (67%)and on clay 23-26 (46%)
a) Volley-- if you dont have a big serve you better do this well. ex., Tim Henman, certainly not a big server but great volleyer. On grass you dont want to be in long rallies; danger of unpredictable ball bounces. In addition, the bounce characteristics will vary on a given court as the grass wears out (ie., as more matches is played on it).
Just a quick note--Nadal has NONE of the above in his arsenal. Add to that minimal experince on this surface makes him a NO THREAT to win Wimbledon. His performance vs Waske this past week is evidence(and i dont buy his excuse of ' i was tired' after the match. If you were tired, dont enter the tournament.)
players that can make noise;
Mario Ancic-- sweet game for this surface, knocked off Henman with ease a yr ago reaching the semi's. If he gets hot, look out. DANGEROUS player.
David Nalbandian-- plays well on all surfaces. HAS NEITHER of the above characteristics, lol, go figure. WILL HE EVER BE A THREAT TO WIN A GRAND SLAM? step up to the plate time David.......
I Karlovic-- wont win it, but on a given day can be dangerous. Just ask L Hewitt
A Roddick-- CERTAINLY he can win it. As Buck stated, most likely him vs Fed again in the final. HE LED mutant A YR AGO 1 set up plus UP A BREAK in the secodn set, the rains came mutant re-grouped and went on to survive and win.
S Grosjean-- good player to include in parlays. Plays well on this surface.
L Hewitt-- has been off for awile battling injury (toe). Still has another week of tennis to prepare. GREAT grass court player, but someone will have to beat mutant FOR HIM, he wont do it. He can WIN this tournament if he gets 'help'. Other than mutant he can handle ANYONE on this surface.
Roland Garros ended with a TEENAGER fulfillign his destiny. Now Wimbledon, is it mutant's destiny to smash Borg's record of 5 straight? He goes for number three in two weeks........
Play looks solid Buckery, good luck my man!!!!!!!!! |