[intelsource]

(720) Tennessee (-5)

The critical difference I see here is the road/neutral site record of both teams. The Vols are (6-2) in conf and Ark just (2-6) on the SEC road. Tenn has impressive wins in neutral sites against W Virg, W Ken and Gonzaga. They also won at Xavier and at Memphis. The Razorbacks have a lone win at Baylor to their credit. Otherwise, they lost at Okl and had two horrible losses at neutral venues - Providence (by 16!) & Appalachian St (losing as a 16.5 fav!!). I see the Vols reaching the SEC final with a solid win.

(728) Wisconsin (-3)

Again I see a large difference in road results. The Badgers are (8-1) versus MSU (3-6) in the Big 10. Otherwise the stats are pretty similar, but Wisconsin has perhaps the best defensive team in the nation (53.6 pts allowed) and I think ultimately will frustrate the Spartans into mistakes and forced shots.

(746) New Mexico St (-6)

NM St is outscoring opponents by 19 & outrebounding them by 15 on their home court! Those are dominant numbers. In conf play the have all the better statiscal advantages over BSU:

Scoring Margin (+9.4 to 5.4)
Rebounding Margin (+8.7 to 3.1)
Turnover Margin (+2.94 to -1.94)

Boise does have a significant edge in 3PT FG%. However, the Aggies weren't completely healthy at the beginning of the conf season and since they've returned to full strength they have pretty much dismantled everyone they played at home. I think they'll win the WAC Championship, comfortably.