[fondybadger]

#15 Belmont vs #2 Duke -19.5
Belmont plays a game similar to Duke. Which isn't good news for them as they don't play it nearly as well. They do have an experienced team that is pretty well balanced. Belmont has won 13 in a row and their best wins are against Cincinnati and Alabama. They went 8-6 in non conference games, but only 2 wins were against teams with a record over .500. Last season they lost by 25 in the first round to Georgetown, and I expect them to have a similar outcome versus Duke. One other note is Belmont led the Atlantic Sun in 3pt%, so if they're hitting them, they could make it a game.
Wager: $200 Duke -19.5


#11 Baylor vs. #6 Purdue -2.5
Let me preface this that I HATE Baylor. I see the school name and my stomach churns. May have something to do with their double OT blowup around a week ago. I was hoping they wouldn't get into the tournament. The only solace I have is they got a brutal match-up and they'll be sent home early. Purdue went 24-8 on the season and 15-3 in the Big 10. They play great fundamental basketball and create a lot of points off of turnovers. They also have a nice outside game. They've beaten Wisky (2), Louisville, and Michigan State this season. Baylor lives and dies by the 3 and should get beat up inside as they're very guard heavy. I don't trust Baylor away from home and Purdue should be able to shut them down from the get go.
Wager: $400 Purdue -2.5



#13 San Diego vs. #4 Connecticut -11.5
What stands out to me is that San Diego struggled away from home, except for a win at Kentucky when Kentucky was going through their bad stretch. SD lost at Boise by 6, New Mexico by 10, Nevada by 14, Marshall by 16, Gonzaga by 10, and Saint Mary's by 7. Needless to say UConn is better than any of those listed teams (lets ignore the Zags beating UConn). Uconn has played and beaten some very good teams including Louisville, Marquette, and Indiana. They have an inside presence in Thabeet and Adrien and have solid guards in Price and Dyson. Bill Grier, San Diego's head coach, is making his first tournament as a head coach but was an assistant at Gonzaga beforehand. I don't feel that SD will be able to handle the guards of UConn and will struggle with size as they only play 3 guys who are over 6'2 (with the tallest being Pomare at 6'8).
Wager: $200 Connecticut -11.5


#10 Davidson -1.5 vs. #7 Gonzaga
This game will come down to two things; how hot is Stephen Curry and how many 3's are falling for Davidson. Davidson has played a plethora of quality teams, but could never get over the hump winning in non-conference against the elite teams. There best wins are against Georgia Southern and Appy State, solid teams, but nothing to write home about. Davidson currently has the nations longest winning streak at 22 games and this should be an extremely interesting match-up. Gonzaga definitely has the size advantage, but they do use that advantage on the offensive end. I believe that Davidson will be able to control the flow of the game, knock down some huge 3's and surprisingly control the glass, preventing Gonzaga 2nd chance opportunities. If Davidson can't hit the 3's, lookout as this game could get ugly in a hurry.
Wager: $200 Davidson -1.5 -105


#7 Butler -4 vs. #10 South Alabama
South Alabama stands out as a very upperclassmen led team. The top 8 players for the Jaguars are all juniors or seniors. Demetric Bennett is an NBA talent who is averaging 20.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 1.3 spg. The last time they made the field was 2006, when they lost in the first round to the eventual National Champion Florida Gators. Put the Jags against any BCS school and I'd expect upset, but playing Butler that won't happen. Butler has beaten Ohio State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech (talk about bubble busting). Four of the five starters for Butler are seniors and I don't see AJ Graves going quietly into the night. Butler didn't win pretty in conference play but they pulled it off when it counted. They had the player of the year in Mike Green, Freshmen of the Year in Matt Howard and can beat you numerous different ways. They lost in the Sweet 16 last year, bring back pretty much the same team, and can say they were dissed with their seed. Expect the team that comes together this time of the year to use their NCAA experience and take care of business.
Wager: $300 Butler -4