[nekbug]

going to keep each weeks plays in a single thread for convienence sake...

feeling good after yesterday's 4-1 performance and will test my luck by playing a couple more than orignially intended, 6 in all.

Butler @ Notre Dame -3

This one seems a no brainer to me. Both 1-0 coming into the game and off of romps but home court's worth at least a 3 spot. In fact I think its being overly generous to Bulldogs and undoubtedly skewered by last season's impressive 20-13 record. Butler's lost Horizon player of the year, Brandon Polk, plus guards Avery Sheets and Bruce Horan, which may be negated somewhat over time by addition of transfer Mike Green, but only time will tell. They struggled mightly at times last year to score and while they played terrific defense they were out rebounded by an average of 7.7 a game. The Irish certainly aren't world beaters by any margin, very likely to be life and death to make Big East's tourney, are young and inexperienced, but season opening win over IPFW showed they're capable of putting up some points.

Houston -4 @ Rhode Island

Houston's got a real chance at unseating Memphis for CUSA crown. Backcourt tandem of Lanny Smith (12.1 ppg 5.4 apg) and Oliver Lafayette (15.7 ppg) are an awesome 1-2 punch and probably more than Rams can handle. After 14-14 last season and no appreciable upgrade I'm not looking for them to scuff up Cougars shiny prom shoes.

Youngstown St @ Duquesne +6.5

Penguins third game in young season, all away from home, and it's probably too much to ask them to go 2-1. Played reasonably well against Mich last night. Dukes, to be kind, sucked last year, going 3-24. Good news is only 2 players back. Add to this the near tragic off season shooting of Sam Ashalou and it would be easy to write them off. I going with hunch that they're very much in need of some good news and a win to open season goes a long ways towards putting them on some sort of even keel.

NC-Greensboro @ Penn St -9


DII Shippensburg's shocking upset of Nittany Lions in Penn's last exhibition game served as an early wake up call. 17 pt win over Morehead St in season opener showed Lions to be very business like. Looking for them to build on it with another solid effort at home tonight.

Northern Arizona @ Arizona St -7

Sun Devils look to open Sendek era with a bang. NA was full merit for its Big Sky crown last yr and returns a veteran lineup but its going to be 0-2 after this one. Even if they cut 16 pt loss to Kansas in half.... well u get the picture.

Cal Santa Barbara -3.5 @ Montana St

Monty was absolutely horrendous against Utah Valley St, dropping opener 37-69. Tonights home opener and they'll compete but I like SB. Gauchos really started to put it together at the end of last yr, winning 7 of last 9 regular season games, and picked up where they left off with 75-67 win over San Jose St to kick this yr off. Getting Sr's Cecil Brown (NCAA granted him a 6th yr) and Glenn Turner (medical clearance) back gives them a veteran presence. After Long Beach St and Pacific Big West's open and I won't be surprised if SB's right there in the mix.

YTD 7-8 -.71

[nekbug]

3-3 yesterday, with Duquesne, Penn St and UCSB in the win column. Tonight have 4 plays on tap....

UL Lafayette +14 @ Mississippi

Miss will be looking to go 2-0 for first time since 1999 and will more than likely pull it off but we can expect the Cajuns to stick around. Laf's always an athletic team and this yr's no exception. Plenty of new faces, 8 in all, a bit of a concern but not enough to make me lay off of taking 14 pts from Rebels who've got new coach and much to do to make me forget they dropped 13 of last 14 games last season. One other completely useless but neat bit of trivia...Ole Miss hasn't beat Cajuns since 1969 (1-4 all time).

South Carolina -5.5 @ UC Irvine

Gamecocks struggled mightily at times in opener against SCarolina St and now head west for tilt against Big West's Anteaters. Irvine, 1-2, will be playing 4 game in 5 nights. In my view that's too much to ask against a very well coached S Carolina.

Colorado @ New Mexico -440

Taking ML approach with this one. Had hoped to see spread fall a bit, when it didnt pulled trigger for a middling lay out of 440. Lobo's should have no problem winning but figured why sweat out the points.

Winthrop @ Iona +11

Gaels in rebuilding mode but getting 11 for home and season opener too much to pass up.

happy hunting compadres

[naught33]

gl on the plays bro

[nekbug]

only 2 plays tonight and just getting them in under the wire as i finally find some time to post.

Illinois Chicago @ Davidson -4

Wildcats 2-1 are averaging 80 per game and playing home opener.

Kansas St @ Rutgers -1

Season kicks off for Scarlet Knights with win at home.


Yesterday 1-3 4-6 -2.27 on the week


good hunting mes amis

[nekbug]

2 plays for tonight

Michigan St v Texas -4

1st meaningful game for both and its on big stage of neutral MSG. Both pretty exactly what we expected to date, running roughshod over inferior opponents, though Texas may be a little more forcefully. In the end it comes down to fact I think Longhorns are just a tad more athletic than Spartans. Super Freshman Kevin Durant would without a doubt be in NBA if rules hadn't changed and will make all the difference in this one. Izzo's squad is solid but hardly one of his best. With loss of Ager, Davis, Brown and Trannon it's going to take time for Spartans to find their legs against top teams.


Rhode Island v Troy +4

Trojans very likely to win this one straight up but I'll take pts as a hedge. With talented seniors, Sammy Sharp (10.7 ppg 05) Cedric Jackson (13.3 05) and transfer Richard Chaney, they're likely to pick up where they left off last yr. Trojans rewrote book in Sun Belt last yr beyond the arc. In first two games Chaney's averaging 17.5, Jackson 12.5 and Sharp 10.5. Rams, leaving home for first time, would appear to be able to score as well in light of 99 pts in loss to Houston. Question is can they stop anyone? DII Stonehill put up 62 and Houston 102.


YTD 12-15 -2.45

[nekbug]

here's hoping i've found some real value today

Toledo v Iowa -2

Should be a close game but Hawkeyes have enough to prevail over Rockets.

Mississippi @ Fairfield +8.5 +360

Looking to make some coin with Stags. Fairfield 0-3 to start campaign but have been in every one of them. Lost 54-59 to American in OT, by 2 to Holy Cross, and though St Joe's won by 16, 2nd half was 30-35. Looking to see them hit the W column at home tonight against Rebels. Double play with pts and additional play of ML.

Lou Tech +7 @ St Louis

Pretty big number for neutral site. Can't see how St Lou warrants it off of less than stellar win over Quincy.

Xavier -7.5 v VCU

Musketeers class of A10 this year, with plenty of experience to call upon. Stanley Burrell and Justin Cage appear to have picked up where they left off last yr with 19 and 10 pts in win over Coastal Carolina. Add a bit more production from transfer Drew Lavender and it adds up to a trip to woodshed for Rams.

Miami -3 @ Evansville

Hard to see how Miami doesn't get to 3-0, and laying 3 seems like a steal.

Clevland St @ Buffalo -1.5

Two middling 1-1 squads, I'll take home court.

UC-Santa Barbara +9 @ UNLV

Maybe a stretch but i'm going to play my hunch and stick with Gauchos until they run out of bullets. This is one hot team, going back to last yr they're 9-2 in last 11 regular season games, scoring a bunch and Reb's D is a bit porous. SB gives them a real scare tonight i think, right down to the wire.


YTD 13-16 -5.09

best of luck to all

[dananderson32]

good luck i know the buffalo game isnt being played here i think at a neautral site it is, because i go to univ. at buffalo and i know there is no game here tonight at least that i know of

[naught33]

gl tonight bro

[nekbug]

5-3 yesterday though i wish i had of pulled trigger on ML UCSB straight up instead of just taking line. But no sense crying over lost opportunity.....

today's plays

St Mary's @ USC -2.5

St Mary's off to fast 3-1 start due to home cookin' now venture out on the road. Trojans lost home opener to S Carolina, so they're still looking for the new playpen's inaugral win.

Portland St @ Arizona St -11

Sendek era got off to a shaky start with loss in home opener to N Arizona. After win over UC San Bernadino to shake jitters can expect another big performance today against Vikings porous defense, 99 pts per game.

Wichita St @ George Mason +1.5

Last yr's cinderella wont find any opponents taking them lightly this yr but they're a solid team very well coached by Jim Larranaga and know how to win close ones. Shockers as part of last year's surprising MVC are getting benefit of being early public captivation. Take pts and Patriots at home.

Pepperdine @ CS Northridge Under 179.5

While i very rarely play O/V's this one simply too much to ignore. At first glance over would seem a lock considering the way these two putting up points, 83.3 for Pepp and 99 for Northridge, combined with porous defense, but 180 is 90-90, and at some point they're going to have to rein in offense for some b control and defense. While neither are considered much of a threat for post season and have yet to play anyone but dregs this game figures to be a where we're at gut check type affair...meaning they grind it out for a 80-75 type score.

Toledo -4.5 v Md Tenn St

Toledo respectable in it's 62-71 loss to Iowa yesterday. Md Tenn fell to Alabama 62-71 but score somewhat misleading considering Tide was without its big man Jermareo Davidson who remained home due to death of his girlfriend this week. With neither team having a win away from home i'm going to ride the stronger Rockets.

Chattanooga @ Florida -28

A huge number to be sure but Gators been leathal at home to start yr with wins by 25,40, and 29. Chat's just the day's sacrificial lamb being led to the slaughter.

California +8 +200 @ San Diego St

Aztecs off to best start in two decades but i'm calling Bears tonight. SD has been full merit for it's start but looking inside the numbers you see a team thats living on the edge...wins by 3,1 and 3 before 84-48 win over DII UC San Diego. FG % at 50 but have to wonder how much of that is due to playing a couple of DII squads? I smell upset and definitely like the price.

Fairfield +18 @ Conn

As i wrote about yesterday, Fairfields losing but hanging tough. With Calhoun breaking in so many new faces Huskies going to have to show some consistency before i spot them 18.

Wofford @ Jacksonville St PK

Home opener in a pickem game. I'll side with Gamecocks.

good hunting amigos

YTD 18-19 -2.45

[naught33]

gl today man hope they hit

[nekbug]

look find some value in Big East tonight with 2 plays

Villanova +100 v Xavier

Seeing as the spread is -1 Xav and i see Cats as a slight fav i'll play money line for slightly better return.

Mississippi v UConn -11

Huskies had little trouble covering last nite to my consternation, but i've learned my lesson. Youngish or not, Huskies are going to dominate in front of home crowd...so Ole Miss, who's 4-0 is a bit of a mirage (Miss Valley St, LA Lafayette, Fairfield and Central Arkansas combined aren't 1/3 of what's in wait tonite) are in for a trip to the wood pile.


yesterday 4-6

ytd 22-25 -4.81