[fondybadger]

Some early thoughts on tomorrow's card, would love feedback...

North Carolina -10.5 vs. Kentucky
After what UNC did to Ohio State I think there confidence is at an all time high. Although, Kentucky may have an advantage with Robert Morris inside to help neutralize Hansborough.

Arizona State +3.5 at Minny
Monson resigning could be the fresh breathe that MInny needs to step up, but I highly doubt it. Both teams are a bit down this season, but Minny is really really bad. I'll be fading them until they can show me they can win. Especially when they're the favorite.

Indiana State +4.5 at Ball State
Both teams have quality players this year and could make a run at the post season. I'm a big fan on Indiana State, while I know a few guys I respect love Ball State this season. I'll talk to them about this game and go from there.

Wisky - Can never tell what team will come out this year. Last year I lost one game ATS with them. This season I'm 1-3 ATS so far. At 28.5, I'll stay away.

Kansas -9.5 at Depaul
Lines a bit high for me to really like Kansas right now but if it drops down into the 8.5 or 9 range I'll pull the trigger. Depaul has a sold team this year, but I think Kansas should be getting some of their young guys in a groove. Their center Butler has been reinstated and they should be good to go in this one.

Texas +2 vs Zags
Should be an awesome game. Texas is more talented but Zags have the experience. What wins out?

Southern Illinois -9 vs St. Louis
The Salukis are going to be a legit team in the NCAA tourney this season. St. Louis is having trouble scoring and have been blown out be a lot of quality teams. With the defense SI has they should shut down Stl.

Loyola Chicago -9.5 vs UWGB
Horizon League conference game. Both teams are experienced, but the talent level at UWGB isn't very good. Loyola and Butler are the class of the Horizon this season and I expect Loyola to blow out UWGB (UWGB lost to NDST by double digits at home - not a good road team).

KState +3.5 at Col. State
KState has been playing well and I'm a bit surprised to see them being a dog. Don't know Colorado State well enough this year to make an honest opinion on this gmae yet.

Illinois +7 vs Arizona
Line seems a bit high to me. Illinois can play with about anyone and keep it close because of their defense.

Nebraskas -5 vs Rutgers
Fading Rutgers

NMST -7.5 vs SF
SF is playing tonight, have another game tomorrow... Giddens (Kansas transfer) has been doing a good job for NMST. They lost me a ton of money against NM though so I'm a bit gunshy now.

[dananderson32]

i think zona runs over illnois tomorrow but just my opinion like a few of your other picks though

[fondybadger]

12:00 PM Eastern
$200 Kentucky +?
$75 Kentucky 1H +?
Going to wait until tipoff to put this play in as I definately agree with KK's thoughts on this game. Randolph Morris will provide a nice defensive presence to Hansborough and Kentucky should be able to slow the pace down in this game more than enough to make it come down to the final possessions. I just hope things don't get crazy like they did against Ohio State at the end.

$125 Long Beach State +6
$50 Long Beach State 1H +3
This is a type of game that they can win straight up. LBST guard play and athleticism should give Temple fits. Look for them to take an early lead and then look for Temple to come back at the end with a chance to win it.
$75 James Madison +17.5
There team is a bit better this season than in years past and they really haven't gotten blown out so far this season. Old Dominion seems to be a team that plays to their competition and they don't have a very high powered offense.

- Slight lean towards West Carolina +19.5 but don't want to play it.

1:00 PM Eastern
$100 UNC Wilmingon -1
I'll take the team that lost by 12 to Tenny than the team that lost to Oakland by 15 anyday.

$250 Clemson -1.5 -105
$150 Clemson 1H -1
They've played the better teams so far this season and have come away unscathed so far. Going to keep riding them as a small fave or a dog until they lose.

$300 Memphis 1H -15
$150 Memphis -27.5
Manhattan lost to New Jersey Technical college this season... Memphis beat Kentucky by 17 and Oklahoma by 12. This one is going to get ugly QUICK.

$125 Seton Hall -2.5
Fading Saint Mary's on the road.

$150 Minny/ASU under 127.5
$50 Minny/ASU 1H under 58.5
I'll take bjorks advice on this one and may add a Minnesota play closer to tipoff.

I'll be adding plays tomorrow after I wake up throughout most of the day.... Here are some later plays I've already put in. More than likely will have a writeup for them tomorrow.

$275 LSU -17.5
$250 LSU 1H -9.5
$125 Texas +2
$50 Texas 1H ML +109
$200 Loyola Chicogo -9.5
$250 Loyola Chicago 1H -5
$500 Nebraska -5
$300 Nebraska 1H -3
$100 Houston/Va Comm OVER 144.5 (tailing Helmuth)

[fondybadger]

These breakdowns are from friends of mine...

Bjorks

ASU +3.5 Vs. MN

(In your best Lee Corso voice)...Not so fast my friends! This game has DANGER written all over it. Let's look at the facts I know.

MN
1) MN players HATED Dan Monson...(I know 4 players on a pretty personal level)
2) They LOVE interim coach Molinari
3) Molinari is a great motivator and is the sole reason Brandon Smith, Bryce Webster, and Lawrence McKenzie are at MN.
4) Molinari is a defensive minded coach and will get a lot out of these guys.

ASU
1) This is a true hodgepodge of players with some fitting Sendek's system and others not at all (I see ASU practice everyday and know most of these guys pretty well).
2) The barn is still a tough place to play and with 3 true freshman starting for ASU, road jitters could be in effect.
3) Sendek is also extremely defensive minded and the winner of this game probably won't need more than 60 points.

So what do you have?
1) Coaching - Sendek is a better coach, but I'm giving the edge to Molinari and MN because Molinari has implemented most of the defensive and some of the offensive systems at MN. The players are more familiar with it and there's probably 4 players at ASU who do not fit Sendek's system AT ALL! EDGE - MN (slightly)

2) Starters - McKenzie and Dan Coleman should play to their averages. Pendergraph has an edge over Tollackson and Shipp does as well. EDGE - ASU

MN/ASU
PG - McKenzie vs. Atuahene EDGE - McKenzie (slightly)
SG - Smith vs. Polk EDGE - Polk (Smith despite being a SO did not play his SR year of HS and only played like 10 games as a FR) Polk can light it up
SF - Payton vs. Shipp EDGE Shipp (Jarren can fill it up as well and has much more athleticism than Payton
PF - Coleman vs. Seay EDGE Coleman, big Dan should play well against Seay, I've never been a Seay fan however
C - Tollackson vs. Pendergraph EDGE Pendergraph. Jeff was runner up PAC 10 FOY and has an offensive game that should really hurt Spencer. He's too quick for Spencer. If Tollackson tries to body up and play rough with Jeff, Pendergraph should have a field day of dunks and 3 footers.

3) Bench - ASU bench is probably deeper with as Webster for MN has not been playing lately (I don't know if he's been sick or what). ASU has a bunch of random players they can throw at with size and speed. EDGE - ASU

4) Intangibles - The Barn is a scary place for teams that are not familiar with the raised floor. EDGE - MN

So my feeling is MN will be ready to play and will have some extra incentive with Molinari at the helm. ASU is hit or miss on offense, but MN only has 2 legit scores in Coleman and McKenzie. The bench is much deeper for ASU with Morill, Jones, Claudino and Angounou. MN counters with Abu-Shamala, Johnson, Westbrook, Wilson, Williams. All of MN bench players are EXTREMELY limited in what they can do. ASU has a little more flexibiltiy. The Barn will play a factor in the game, but MN +3.5 is a little too much. It actually should be a pickem IMO. The total should not be over 123, if it is, hammer the under. Both teams struggle to score and will run the shot clock down. In reality it's a scary game, but I'd favor the under if it's in the 120's and a lean towards ASU. ASU is just to unpredictable right now to bet heavy on them. Definately a great spot for a teaser with ASU and the under.

Prediction - ASU 58 MN 55

(Absolutely do not see ASU or MN winning by DD)

KingKrunked

i've been waiting all week for this!

onto your thoughts and ill add mine...

North Carolina -10.5 vs. Kentucky
After what UNC did to Ohio State I think there confidence is at an all time high. Although, Kentucky may have an advantage with Robert Morris inside to help neutralize Hansborough.

----this line will end at -11.5 tomorrow w/ 78% of the public on unc. now you have to ask yourself some questions and go over the osu game. remember the tempo of the osu/unc game (it was a lot of perimeter and extremely fast paced.) the tempo and matchups wont be as easy for unc (you pointed this out w/ morris.) furthermore, the game will be much slower and that SHOULD favor uk. i ALWAYS give the edge to the underdog (ESPECIALLY if they are ranked--or top 35 rpi.) i havent seen much out of uk this year so if they are gonna do something this is it. im leaning strong toward UK and heres why. imo, the 1h of the osu/unc game was the real tarheel team (they stepped it up in the 2h b/c roy is an amazing coach and said some shit during the HT.) i dont think UK will go down w/out a fight and the line seems a bit inflated to be (even if UK hasnt proven me anything.)

Arizona State +3.5 at Minny
Monson resigning could be the fresh breathe that MInny needs to step up, but I highly doubt it. Both teams are a bit down this season, but Minny is really really bad. I'll be fading them until they can show me they can win. Especially when they're the favorite.

----i'm going to have to wait to see what the public does and how the lines move. i dont see how ASU doesnt win by dd. minn is fucking aweful and either vegas knows something i dont (always the case) or htey have the WRONG team favored.

Kansas -9.5 at Depaul
Lines a bit high for me to really like Kansas right now but if it drops down into the 8.5 or 9 range I'll pull the trigger. Depaul has a sold team this year, but I think Kansas should be getting some of their young guys in a groove. Their center Butler has been reinstated and they should be good to go in this one.

----this will be KU's first non-tournament game away from their court this year. depaul is no laughing matter and will play up to their opponent while KU is just the opposite (the dartmouth game was sick and i wont mention that cuz it was pathetic to watch.) bill self REALLY needs to get Khan some more time if he wants to make a run this year (i fully expected him to last game but he didnt start him and played him very little.) i havent been keeping as close an eye on our new guys as i should, but why have i never heard of butler? i feel like a 'tard, but he doesnt ring a bell (if he plays for ku, i'm clueless.) i would lean toward depaul in this match but i learned my lesson to never bet against my team when favored.

Texas +2 vs Zags
Should be an awesome game. Texas is more talented but Zags have the experience. What wins out?

----fuck this gonzaga team, its time they lose another game ats. its ml texas or no play for me. this game will be EXTREMELY fast paced and the scoreboard will be seeing a lot of action. the game is in texas which gives a huge edge to these crazy fucking fans. the zags are proving to the whole country that they are legit, but now its texas' turn to "hook 'em." i simply dont understand how gonzaga keeps doing what they're doing (they lost 59% of their offense from last year...jesus.) texas DOES have a new team and we will see how they shine tomorrow. i really like texas here considering the low line (it will be up to 3.5 by game.)

KState +3.5 at Col. State
KState has been playing well and I'm a bit surprised to see them being a dog. Don't know Colorado State well enough this year to make an honest opinion on this gmae yet. .

----how the fuck are you gonna say kstate has being playing well?!?! they are flat fucking aweful!!!!!! they beat rutgers as +2 dogs (rutgers is AWEFUL) there last game kstate lost by 40 to cal when dogs by 6!!! i will fade kstate till im dead!!! colorado st, on the other hand, aint so bad! i dont see why they arent favored by 10!!!!

Illinois +7 vs Arizona
Line seems a bit high to me. Illinois can play with about anyone and keep it close because of their defense.

----i might have to lay off this game cuz i hate playing big favorites. we all saw the maryland/illi game on illi's home court. this game is being played away (huge loss of spread imo) and arizona should route the fuck of them.

Nebraskas -5 vs Rutgers
Fading Rutgers

----nebraska aint the worst team in the big xii either, and a team that loses to kstate (rutgers) isnt worhy of my money, like nebraska here.

Boston College +3 against UMass
---something aint right here!! you sure bc is a dog to umass?!?!? if thats the case, im taking umass!!! no idea why, but its a T.R.A.P.


Wichita State +4 against Syracuse

what bothers me about wsu this year is how they have been playing down to their opponents. i realize on paper it looks like they blow teams out but thats all late in the game cuz they were fucking with the other team. wsu was up by around 2 points to my school (umkc) last game going into HT which is fucking sorry. syracuse aint bad and playing at syracuse i would be tempted to take them.


Duke -7.5 over Georgetown

GU is pretty pathetic this year, but having the HQ adavantage could give them just enough to cover the spread

[Tommy]

Good stuff Nick. BOL to you today. It's too early in the season yet for me to have an opinion.

[naught33]

great stuff man like ur 1 pm plays in wilmington, clemson and seton hall all 3 should win handily imo....any time u got a west coast team travelign to the east to play an early game its a sure fade, i.e. long beach st against temple..thatswhy i like sh over st marys

[naught33]

hey bro, just wanted to give u a heads up....i think u got new mexico, and new mexico st confused....san fran plays new mexico state tonight...giddens is on new mexico , not new mex st...and both new mex st and sf played last night...not saying for u not to take new mex st just wanted you to know u got them mixed up w new mexico in ur writeup...gl bro

[fondybadger]

Yep realized that about NMST game tonight. I'll definately be on SF later... not feelilng very well right now...

2:00 PM Eastern
$225 Kansas -8.5
$150 Kansas 1H -5
$75 Wofford +18.5
$50 Marshall +11
$100 Oklahoma 1H -9.5
$100 Providence 1H -6.5
$100 Providence -11
$125 St. Joe's -2
$500 SDST -2 -109
$300 SDST -1 -111
$75 Wisconsin 1H -16.5

[fondybadger]

3:00 PM Eastern
$200 UIC -9
$100 UIC 1H -5
$150 Texas A&M 1H -11
$100 Detroit +5

4:00 PM Eastern
$75 Cincy -3
$100 Hofstra 1H -7.5
$125 Okie State 1H -11
$75 Okie State -19.5

5:00 PM Eastern
$150 Fresno State -6.5
$150 Fresno State 1H -3.5
$75 Colorado State -3
$175 Illinois +8

Had $100 on St. Louis +9 I forgot to post here as well...

[naught33]

gl on the plays man....detroit i think is a good one for 3 pm...feel better man and ill catch u later