[fondybadger]

I figured if I was going to participate in the contest, the least I could do is post my plays...

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!

[fondybadger]

12:20 #13 Davidson vs #4 Maryland -6.5
I'm a big fan of Davidson +7.5, but I think they may be a bit overwhelmed if Maryland plays like they did during their winning streak to end the season. A part of me wants to lock in Davidson right now as I'm sure the line will drop, but I think as it does Maryland is looking that much better. Davidson should be able to keep up with Maryland somewhat on the boards and they have the wild card in Curry. What scares me taking Davidson is my leading scorer is a freshmen, who is not named Carmelo Anthony. Thus with Dell Curry's kid leading Davidson, I'm a bit hesistant about my chances. As the line continues to drop, I think I'll take the leadership abilities of Maryland and make them a small play.
PLAY: $100 Maryland -6 -120

12:25 #10 Texas Tech vs #7 Boston College
A pretty tough matchup for both teams. I've been reading some quotes from Boston College and it sounds like they're making excuses for their late season slide. BC coach Al Skinner, "The ACC is the best league in the country. Once we get out of this freakin' league, we'll be fine. I'm not saying it's gonna be easy. But it will be easier than it was in this league." While guard Sean Marshall said, "We just want to get out there right now and play someone who isn't so familiar with the ACC. I think that's very important. It seems like every team now just knows too much about the way we play. Teams have tried to take things away from us before, but it just seems like they've been able to do it a lot more lately." I can't help but laugh at their logic. The team has struggled since Center Sean Williams was dismissed from the team. The 6'10 player was the teams leading shot blocker and BC has gone 7-7 since he's been gone. If they think Bob Knight isn't going to know BC inside and out and have his team ready they're crazy. BC doesn't really have a whole lot of scoring anymore besides Jared Dudley. If Texas Tech can take away his inside presence, like has been happening to BC lately, then they should have a solid shot at wining. Texas Tech is 4th in the country at 41.6% in three pointers. They rank in the top 20 in fewest turnovers and will play a grind it out style. TT has 6 wins in their last 8 games and have played a lot better as the season progressed. They're not that great rebounding over in banging inside blocking shots, but with teh dismissal of Sean Williams, neither is BC. I'll take Bobby Knight and Texas to pull off the minor upset.
PLAY: $175 Texas Tech +3

12:40 #11 Stanford vs #6 Louisville
Stanford in my mind doesn't belong in the field, but then I haven't seen more than 1 or 2 of their games this season. Stanford had some big early wins but struggled down the stretch, losing four of five, including a quarterfinal loss to USC in the Pac 10 tournament. The Stanford front line, featuring the Lopez twins, can be dominant at times. They've beaten UCLA, Oregon, Washington State and USC within the Pac 10, along with Virginia and Texas Tech outside the league. Stanford will have a healthy Lawrence Hill and Anthony Goods should be back from his ankle sprain. Louisville has battled injuries all season and have gotten hot at the right time. The injuries may help them in the tournament as it forced their young players into a more prominent role. Eight of the eleven scholarship players for Louisville are freshmen or sophomores and they're joined by starters Juan Palacios, David Padgett, and Brandon Jenkins. I really like the overall talent of Louisville and I trust the coaching advantage for Rick Pitino.
PLAY: $250 Louisville -5

2:40 #14 Oral Roberts vs #3 Washington State -6.5
Washigton State Coach Tony Bennett was my favorite player growing up when he played for UWGB and upset Cal led by Jason Kidd and Lamond Murray. I'm banking on this game being a relatively low scoring game, that Oral Roberts takes a small lead for most of the game. I think they'll have the best player on the floor in Caleb Green and he'll be joined in the starting lineup by four more upper classmen. I think Oral Roberts is a team that really plays to their opponents and that's why I'm not as concerned about some of their earlier stumbles. It does worry me a bit that people are all over the Oral Roberts bandwagon, and I hope this is one of those games that the public is right on. If Washington State is hot from beyond the arc, no change for Oral Roberts
PLAY: $200 Oral Roberts +6.5 & $50 Oral Roberts +7

2:50 #12 Old Dominion vs #5 Butler -1.5
I think this is one of the hardest first round games to call. Butler is a team that can beat ANY team in the country, but with their low scoring offense they are a candidate to be upset by any team in the country. It is my belief that Butler's early season NIT trip and playing in MSG will have the team more than comfortable to make a run deep into the tournament. Unfortunately, the matchups aren't too kind. I think that with all of the controversy that is Old Dominion in/out of the tournament will have an effect on the psyche of the team. What needs to be asked is if Old Dominion will feel relief they got in and are already "happy" with their season? I'm not sure. I think Butler's defense, experience, and expectations will lead to a narrow win over Old Dominion.
PLAY: $175 Butler -1.5

2:55 #15 Belmont vs #2 Georgetown -16
I initially liked Belmont looking at the numbers, but after giving it some more thought, Georgetown is the play. Although Belmont didn't really lose big this season (16 at Illinois, 9 at Michigan State), but that's about all they've played. They don't really have that great of a team looking at their numbers and anytime they've played a BCS conference team, they've been dominated on the boards. With Georgetown having the #5 scoring defense in the country, points are going to be a premium in the game for Belmont. Belmont has six players that average between 5.1 and 9.5 points a game and two in doubled figures, plus three guys who have some size. Last season Belmont lost 78-44 to UCLA in the first round and I look for something similar this post season. As for Georgetown capability to beat a team by the spread they've beaten such schools as Vanderbilt, Oral Roberts, Michigan, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Seton hall, Depaul, Cincinnati, St. John's, Marquette, and Pittsburgh by 15 points or more. Add Belmont to the list of blow out victories.
PLAY: $100 Georgetown -16

3:10 #14 Pennsylvania vs #3 Texas A&M -13
Penn has been to the Big Dance the last three years and have a upper class led team, led by a head coach making his first trip. Penn has won their last 10 games and have had their trip locked up for a long time now winning the conference, with no conference tourney. Looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how Penn would have a chance in this game. Penn is pretty bad from the line, they allow a high 3pt %, and they can't rebound. Texas A&M leads the nation in field goal percentage at 37.1%. Acie Law is one of the top players in the country that can take over the game at any time, and helps the Aggies rank 6th in the country in assist and 3rd in 3pt % accuracy. Looking at how Penn has done out of conference with a 3-10 ATS mark, I look for a blowout similar to what they went through losing to UNC by 40+ earlier in the season.
PLAY: $325 Texas A&M -13

5:10 #11 George Washington vs #6 Vanderbilt -3.5
George Washington can give a lot of teams fits with their their pressure defense causing all kinds of turnovers. Thankfully for Vanderbilt they only average 12 turnovers a game and should be able to handle GW's pressure. I don't really have a great feel of this game, but I think Vandy has shown more so far this season with what they've down in the SEC. George Washington should be able to hang close, but Vandy will hit free throws down the stretch to preserve the win and the cover.
PLAY: $100 Vanderbilt -3 -115

7:10 #11 VCU vs #6 Duke -6.5
I'm bouncing back and forth on this game. When the lines first came out I LOVED VCU +7.5. I've waited a bit now and the line is bouncing back and forth between +6.5 and +7. VCU spreads the floor, has athleticism, and can drive Duke crazy with solid play. After looking over how VCU has played out of conference and their lack of tourney experience or playing "big time teams" I'm not completely sold on them. Their out of conference schedule was pretty damn weak with their best win versus Houston. They lost by three against Xavier and they lost to Bradley by 9. I'm going to watch the line in this game a bit, but the longer I wait the more I'm liking Duke.
PLAY: PENDING

7:10 Central Conneticut vs Ohio State -21.5
I'm laughing my ass off thinking about Central Conneticut and their three guard and two forward starting lineup trying to stop Greg Oden. The starting five is 6', 6'3, 6'3, 6'4, and 6'7. Ohio State's backup guards are bigger than Central Conneticut's starting forwards. Oden and Hunter are goin to have a block party in this game. Central Conneticut was beaten by 20 at Michigan and 27 to Davidson. Ohio State being out of the Big 10 conference play should be able to increase their scoring ability and win this game by 30+.
PLAY: $100 Ohio State -21.5

7:20 #9 Michigan State -2.5 vs #8 Marquette
Don't have a lot of numbers and stats to toss at you in this game. I've watched these two teams more than enough to feel I have a good handle on them. Michigan State is mostly a one trick pony with Drew Neitzel and if he gets hot MSU is dangerous. That said, Marquette has the guard play and defensive players, especially with a healthy McNeal, that they'll have a fresh body in his face the entire game just like Wisky did in the Big 10 tournament. I look for this game to be a chance for Tom Crean to exit Tom Izzo's shadow and student beating the teacher.
PLAY: $200 Marquette +2.5 & $50 Marquette ML +105

7:25 #15 Weber State vs #2 UCLA -20
My main thoughts are UCLA plays up or down to their opponents and in a game like this will play a slower, more deliberate style. Weber State has some solid players that will put up a fight and towards the end UCLA will pull away and allow Weber State to cover with a loss of 15-17 points. Subconciously, I don't see Ben Howland wanting to embarass the school he played for.
PLAY: $100 Weber State +20

9:40 Wright State vs Pittsburgh -9.5
Who is Wright State? Well there best player is 5'11 G DaShaun Wood who averaged 19.8 ppg and 5 rpg. Their starting lineup has 2 seniors and two freshmen, but no one in their top 8 in the rotation his over 6'8. Their best wins this season were against Butler (in conference tourney upset), Marist, and Cal State Fullerton. Wright State lost to Bradley by 39, LSU by 26, and Butler by 31. When they don't show up, they really don't show up. Pittsburgh is a senior laden team led by 7' Aaron Gray. With Gray down low and outside shooting by Fields, Cook, and Graves Pittsburgh and a nice inside/out combo. They'll definately have the size working in their favor and should be able to control the board. Pittsburgh not only played very well in the Big East, but played Wisconsin and Oklahoma State in the regular season and beat FSU, Washington and Auburn. With the size advantage inside they'll focus to shut down Wright State's 3-point shooting, and Pittsburgh led the Big East in 3point defense, only allowing 28.7% in conference play. I look for Pittsburgh to finally make a run into the tourney and that starts with a DD first round win.
PLAY: $175 Pittsburgh -9.5

9:40 Eastern Kentucky vs North Carolina -25.5
The Eastern Kentucky Colonels advance to the tournament for the second time in three years, winning 11 of their last 13 games. EKU has a perimeter-based offense, with tournament MVP Mike Rose leading the team in scoring at 15.3ppg. Senior Julian Mascoll is the team's top defender who also leads in assists and steals. 6'8 Darnell Dialls is the go to guy in the post. The Colonels play pretty solid defense but lack size like most small conference teams. They were blown out by Ohio State early in the season by 29 points, lost to Western Kentucky by 23 points, lost to Kentucky by 13 (outrebounded by 12, but Kentucky turned the ball over 16 times), other than that they haven't played anyone. UNC has been a favorite of 20 plus points 8 times this season and they've gone 6-2 in those games. The two they didn't were NCST -21 (they won by 19) and their first game of the year against Sacred Heart where UNC scored 101 points, but allowed 80. UNC will be able to cruise in this game and this is one large spread I feel very comfortable taking.
PLAY: $100 North Carolina -25.5

9:40 #9 Xavier -1 vs #8 BYU
Xavier has five upper classmen starting for them and four of them average in double figures. Both Justin Cage and Justin Doellman have a lot of experience in the tournament, as they contributed to Xavier's run to the Elite 8 as freshmen. BYU will be able to control the glass in this contest, but will struggle to stop Lavendar from penetrating and dishing Doellman from hitting from outside.
PLAY: $100 Xavier -1

9:55 Gonzaga vs Indiana
Indiana will absolutely light up Gonzaga from the outside and with the suspension of Heytvelt, they'll have no answer for DJ White as Sean Mallon hasn't stepped up as much as he needs to. Ratliff coming off the bench for Indiana will be a decisive factor as I don't feel that Gonzaga has the players or experience to contend in this game. Derek Ravio will give it all he has, but I really don't feel it will be enough.
PLAY: $325 Indiana -1 -115

RECAP OF THURSDAY
I'm a bit concerned I have as many favorites as I do on the opening day (11 or 12), but I feel the matchups on Thursday give the favorites the benefit of the doubt. Bought a half point on a couple games to be on the safe side. If there's any games you want to get into a bit more depth let me know.

[fondybadger]

12:15 #13 Albany vs #4 Virginia -8.5
Last season Albany led UConn by 12 points in the second half, and I thought there was some potential for an upset out of Albany this season. If I remember right Inspekdah is an alumni of Albany and I'm going to take his statements to heart a bit more on the team than I do my own. Virginia's Singletary and Reynolds should give Albany's Wilson fits and create turnovers, while the 10 man rotation for Virginia will play an integral role. I think Virginia may have some struggles early, but will find themselves in the second half with greater depth and win this game SU. As for the the spread I think Albany takes covers.
PLAY: $250 Albany +9 -115

12:25 #10 Georgia Tech -2 vs #7 UNLV
To me this game comes down to youth versus experience. Georgia Tech normally starts two freshmen and no seniors, while seven of the top eight in the rotation are juniors or seniors for UNLV. Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young will have a lot of pressure on their shoulders as freshmen in this game, and I don't think they rise to the challenge. The aggressive defense for UNLV which is 18th in the country in blocked shots will cause fits and the 7.5 3's that UNLV hits a game will come at clutch times crushing Georgia Tech's spirit. If the young stars show up for Tech, UNLV could be in a bit of trouble. I personally am not a fan of Krueger's coaching and I don't see him making the necessary adjustments to get his team over the hump if they get behind early. Thus I'll keep things small.
PLAY: $100 UNLV +2

12:30 #15 North Texas vs #2 Memphis -17.5
As I said when I first started this thread I don't think there is two more shady teams in the country when it comes to college sports than these two. I hate taking either team as a favorite, and as BAR said they'll find some way to middle this game. There hasn't been a lot of line movement, so I look at that as a positive for taking Memphis. They're on a 22 game win streak and Joey Dorsey should have his way in this game against a weaker Mean Green interior defense. North Texas lost 8 games in the Sun Belt, so I don't have too high of expectations for them to keep this game close if everything is on the up and up.

PLAY: $100 Memphis -17.5

2:35 #11 Winthrop vs #6 Notre Dame -3.5
Winthrop is a sexy upset pick. I don't think they get the job done. It's a pretty bad matchup for Winthrop as Notre Dame can really shoot the ball from outside and their interior play leads to 81ppg. Notre Dame has four starters who average double figures so if one guy is off, any of the others can step up. Winthrop is a very solid team. They have experience, move the ball around, had a solid bench and plays defense and against different matchups I might have them in the Sweet 16. In this game it's a one and done as they won't stop Notre Dame.
PLAY: $175 Notre Dame -3 -110

2:35 #12 Long Beach State vs #5 Tennessee -7
Long Beach State is my Sweet 16 upset pick getting past Tenny and Virginia. The 49ers average 80.3 ppg and start five seniors who (and a total of seven seniors in the rotation). Aaron Nixon was the conference player of the year and Kejuan Johnson joined him on the first team. LBST averages eight 3's a game and really rely on a quick, frantic, pace as they have no true center on the roster. Tennessee seems to play to their opponents. They could handle Florida but struggled versus LSU and South Carolina. Tennesse ranks last in the SEC in scoring defense and shoot a dismal 65.4% from the foul line. The LBST team reminds me a ton of UWM from the past few years when Tenny coach Bruce Pearl was the coach. Maybe he knows how to stop it, but I don't trust him or Chris Lofton to make the adjustments that they need to win this game.
PLAY: $250 Long Beach State +8

2:55 #15 Texas A&M CC vs #2 Wisconsin -13
When the bracket first came out on Sunday I was a bit worried about Wisconsin's matchup of TAM CC. All I knew about the team was they were a high scoring team that had a ton of seniors on it. I'm assuming that Menifee will be attempting to guard Tucker but with Wisconsins swing offense TAMCC won't be use to the switching that they'll need to do. I think that Tucker and Landry down low for Wisconsin will cause the 7' Chris Daniels to pick up a couple of stupid fouls early trying to pick up the open man. TAMCC will try to force Wisconsin into an uptempo type of game, and we all know how much Wisconsin will be pushed around in their style of play. I don't think that TAMCC will be use to the style and aggressive defense that Wisconsin plays and Kameron Taylor will step up big from the outside for Wisconsin. Looking at past games this season, TAMCC has lost to Okie State by 22, Miss. St. by 24, UNLV by 10, and Purdue by 18. Wisconsins beat Pittsburgh by 14, FSU by 15, Georgia by 10, and their one common opponent Purdue by 5. I see no reason to worry about Wisky covering the 13 points. People may point to the Butch injury and say they're down their 3rd leading scorer, but I love the rotation (especially in this matchup) that it forces Wisconsin to play.
PLAY: $175 Wisconsin -13

3:00 #10 Creighton vs #7 Nevada
If Nevada can get past Creighton in the first round, which I really believe they can, I have them upsetting Memphis and Texas A&M advancing to the Elite 8 before losing to Ohio State. I'm not sure if anyone on Creighton can stop Nick Fazekas if it be under the basket or taking the 15 footer. Nevada's Marcelus Kemp's outside shooting will provide some much needed points against a stingy Creighton defense and it is my hope that Kyle Shiloh, Nevada's best defensive player, will be healthy enough to stop Creighton's Nate Funk.
PLAY: $325 Nevada -1


5:05 #14 Miami (Oh) vs #3 Oregon -8
I'd love to sit here and tell you that Miami could win this game, but I don't think they have a shot. Looking at Miami's non-conference schedule they lost to Kentucky by 11, Xavier by 15, Michigan by 6, and Cincy by 8. Oregon is better than any of those teams and have already beaten Georgetown and UCLA this season. Miami has a great scoring defense of 57.7 points a game this season, but they've got the worst offense in the entire field. Oregon's Aaron Brooks will take over this game and the fast pace Ducks will create all kinds of turnovers for easy scores.
PLAY: $325 Oregon -8

7:10 #12 Illinois vs #5 Virginia Tech -2.5 -115
PENDING - No feel for this game.

7:10 #16 Niagra vs #1 Kansas -19
Don't really have a whole lot to say about this game either except that I expect Niagra to play with a chip on their shoulder for being in the play in game. I don't think the upper class led team of Niagra will fold under the pressure and may even have a few brief leads in the second half. Kanas wins this games by doubled digits, but not without some struggles.
PLAY: $100 Niagra +19

7:20 #9 Purdue vs #8 Arizona -2.5
I know what I'll get from Purdue in this game. Landry and Teague will put up 30+ points and the rest of the team will struggle to find their rhythem. What I don't know is how Arizona will play. Shakur, Budinger, Williams, and Radenovic all have pivotal roles, and this could be one of those games were Arizona has a break out on the way to upsetting Florida.
PLAY: $175 Arizona -115

7:25 #13 New Mexico State vs #4 Texas -8
Durant will be way too much for the Aggies to handle in this game as Augistine and Abrams will contribute to the scoring load. I think NMST pressing defense may cause some fits early for Texas, but once adjustments are made, Texas will destroy a shaky NMST half court defense. Got to love seeing the line drop so much in this one as well.
PLAY: $325 Texas -8

9:40 #13 Holy Cross vs #4 Southern Illinois -7.5
Not much to say about this game except that SIU's scoring defense will put Holy Cross to sleep and Jamaal Tatum will put up the necessary points for SIU to cover. Sure Holy Cross has had some close calls in the past NCAA tournaments, but this is a different team and a different time.
PLAY: $175 Southern Illinois -7.5

9:40 #9 Villanova -1 vs #8 Kentucky
Two teams that finished the season going two opposite directions. Villanova was strong down the stretch while Kentucky lost 6 of their last 9. Villanova's freshmen Scottie Reynolds has matured during the season and I look for him to cause plenty of problems for Tubby Smith and Randolph Morris.
PLAY: $200 Villanova +1 & $50 Villanova -1

9:50 #16 Jackson State vs #1 Florida -28.5
I'm thinking that Florida won't be in blow out mode and will coast through their first round game winning it in the low 20's, after being up by that amount in the first half. Bit concerned as Jackson State lost by 30+ to any decent school they played this season, but with another game on Sunday for the Gators, look for them to call the Wolves off early.
PLAY: $100 Jackson State +28.5

9:55 #12 Arkansas vs #5 USC -2
I personally think Stan Heath is a lot better coach than Tim Floyd. USC has a relatively young team and Arkansas is putting it all together at the right time. I'm looking for them to carry over their momentum from the SEC run and watch as Beverley puts up the points and Hill has a block party for Arky as USC is sent packing.
PLAY: $100 Arkansas +2

[fondybadger]

Previously Pending Thursday ATS
$175 Duke -6
Too many people riding VCU and they just weren't that impressive out of conference. I look for Duke to take care of business in the second half and cover the spread.

[fondybadger]

Thursday Additions
Thursday 1st Half ATS
$75 Marland 1H -4 +100
$75 Louisville 1H -3 -105
$75 Texas A&M -7 -115
$75 Ohio State -11
$75 Pittsburgh -5

Thursday DOG Money Line Plays
$50 Texas Tech +125
$50 Oral Roberts +250
$50 Marquette +120 (already have $50 +105)

Friday Additions
Friday 1st Half ATS
$75 Memphis 1H -10
$150 Wisconsin 1H -7 (double play)
$75 Oregon 1H -4.5
$75 Texas 1H -4.5
$75 Florida 1H -15

Friday DOG Money Line Plays
$50 Albany +350
$50 UNLV +110
$50 LBST +290
$50 Arkansas +120

Tournament Props

TEAM TO TEAM MOST WINS

$250 Wisconsin +100 over Memphis
I have Wisconsin losing in the Sweet 16 to Oregon, but feel they have a decent chance of making it past them if things work out alright. UNLV/Georgia Tech may provide a challenge to Wisconsin, but I see them winning a relatively close game. Nevada is my darkhorse to make it to the Elite 8. I hope they can get past Creighton, but if they do I have them knocking off Memphis in the second round. Otherwise Texas A&M should send Memphis packing in the Sweet 16.

$300 Oregon -155 over Washington State
$100 Pittsburgh -150 over Washington State
I'm confident that Oregon will win their first game and the winner in Notre Dame/Creighton will also have a tough time beating Oregon. I have Washington State losing in the first round. If they don't get upset but Oral Roberts then they need to beat Vandy to get to the Sweet 16. If that somehow happens, there is NO WAY they get past UNC. Oregon can and should get past Wisconsin, but to win this one I don't think they even need to get that far. Pittsburgh I have penciled into the Sweet 16 as well.

$100 Vandy +105 over Notre Dame
Have Vandy in the Sweet 16 beating George Washington and Oral Roberts, while Oregon or Winthrop should knock off Notre Dame.

~$50 Indiana +115 over Boston College
$50 Texas Tech +160 over Georgia Tech
$50 LBST +200 over Old Dominion
$50 Arky +100 over Illinois

Make Final
$100 Georgetown +405
$100 Florida +210

Champion
$40 Florida +375

[dcb11]

GL with your plays today

dc

[Tommy]

Like Louisville and Maryland a ton. Not so sure about Marquette, I kind of like Michigan St. there.

Kick ass in the tourney Nick...

[naught33]

gl today buddy....i like the oral roberts play a lot im on them as well...lets make some moneyt

[AUTIGER]

Originally Posted by naught33

gl today buddy....i like the oral roberts play a lot im on them as well...lets make some moneyt

so much for oral sex naught