Conference Tournament Plays

intelsource · 03-15-08, 01:02 PM

(720) Tennessee (-5)

The critical difference I see here is the road/neutral site record of both teams. The Vols are (6-2) in conf and Ark just (2-6) on the SEC road. Tenn has impressive wins in neutral sites against W Virg, W Ken and Gonzaga. They also won at Xavier and at Memphis. The Razorbacks have a lone win at Baylor to their credit. Otherwise, they lost at Okl and had two horrible losses at neutral venues - Providence (by 16!) & Appalachian St (losing as a 16.5 fav!!). I see the Vols reaching the SEC final with a solid win.

(728) Wisconsin (-3)

Again I see a large difference in road results. The Badgers are (8-1) versus MSU (3-6) in the Big 10. Otherwise the stats are pretty similar, but Wisconsin has perhaps the best defensive team in the nation (53.6 pts allowed) and I think ultimately will frustrate the Spartans into mistakes and forced shots.

(746) New Mexico St (-6)

NM St is outscoring opponents by 19 & outrebounding them by 15 on their home court! Those are dominant numbers. In conf play the have all the better statiscal advantages over BSU:

Scoring Margin (+9.4 to 5.4)
Rebounding Margin (+8.7 to 3.1)
Turnover Margin (+2.94 to -1.94)

Boise does have a significant edge in 3PT FG%. However, the Aggies weren't completely healthy at the beginning of the conf season and since they've returned to full strength they have pretty much dismantled everyone they played at home. I think they'll win the WAC Championship, comfortably.

intelsource · 03-16-08, 11:17 AM

0-3!!! That qualifies as a DEBACLE

Wisconsin was the only team that even won their game and they didn't deserve to. MSU was the better team as they had the lead for the entire game except for the final score.

Then Tenn gives up 92!! Their worst def performance of the year. How did this team beat Memphis and hold them to 62? If they're this poor on defense against a slipshod team like Ark it's hard to imagine they'll be able to advance deep in the Big Dance.

And finally for the nightcap New Mex St laid an egg. This bunch wins by an avg of 20 points a game at home. They'd beaten BSU twice already including by 19 in Las Cruces. Virtually all the comparative stats favored them and yet they never really threatened to cover.

All in all a horrible day as some parlays bit the dust as well. My sincere apologies to anybody who may have been led into disaster by these wretched picks.

03-15-08, 01:02 PM	#1 (permalink)
intelsource SCI Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 91	Conference Tournament Plays (720) Tennessee (-5) The critical difference I see here is the road/neutral site record of both teams. The Vols are (6-2) in conf and Ark just (2-6) on the SEC road. Tenn has impressive wins in neutral sites against W Virg, W Ken and Gonzaga. They also won at Xavier and at Memphis. The Razorbacks have a lone win at Baylor to their credit. Otherwise, they lost at Okl and had two horrible losses at neutral venues - Providence (by 16!) & Appalachian St (losing as a 16.5 fav!!). I see the Vols reaching the SEC final with a solid win. (728) Wisconsin (-3) Again I see a large difference in road results. The Badgers are (8-1) versus MSU (3-6) in the Big 10. Otherwise the stats are pretty similar, but Wisconsin has perhaps the best defensive team in the nation (53.6 pts allowed) and I think ultimately will frustrate the Spartans into mistakes and forced shots. (746) New Mexico St (-6) NM St is outscoring opponents by 19 & outrebounding them by 15 on their home court! Those are dominant numbers. In conf play the have all the better statiscal advantages over BSU: Scoring Margin (+9.4 to 5.4) Rebounding Margin (+8.7 to 3.1) Turnover Margin (+2.94 to -1.94) Boise does have a significant edge in 3PT FG%. However, the Aggies weren't completely healthy at the beginning of the conf season and since they've returned to full strength they have pretty much dismantled everyone they played at home. I think they'll win the WAC Championship, comfortably. __________________ NCAA CBB (2-3)
Status: Offline

03-16-08, 11:17 AM	#2 (permalink)
intelsource SCI Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 91	Re: Conference Tournament Plays 0-3!!! That qualifies as a DEBACLE Wisconsin was the only team that even won their game and they didn't deserve to. MSU was the better team as they had the lead for the entire game except for the final score. Then Tenn gives up 92!! Their worst def performance of the year. How did this team beat Memphis and hold them to 62? If they're this poor on defense against a slipshod team like Ark it's hard to imagine they'll be able to advance deep in the Big Dance. And finally for the nightcap New Mex St laid an egg. This bunch wins by an avg of 20 points a game at home. They'd beaten BSU twice already including by 19 in Las Cruces. Virtually all the comparative stats favored them and yet they never really threatened to cover. All in all a horrible day as some parlays bit the dust as well. My sincere apologies to anybody who may have been led into disaster by these wretched picks. __________________ NCAA CBB (2-3)
Status: Offline