[fondybadger]

THURSDAY LEANS
Duke -19.5
Arizona +2
Xavier -7.5
Purdue -2.5
Kansas -25
Kent -1.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Kansas State +2.5
Notre Dame -7
Washington Sate -8.5
Temple +7
Pittsburgh -10.5 +100
Cornell +15.5
Marquette -5
Miss. Valley State +31.5
BYU +1.5

FRIDAY LEANS
Clemson -6.5
Siena +8
Drake -5
UConn -11.5
Arkansas +2
G'Town no line
Davidson -1.5 -105
Memphis -25
Mississippi State -3 -105
Austin Peay +16.5
St. Mary's +2
Tennessee NL
Butler -4
Louisville -13.5
Oklahoma -1.5 -105
North Carolina NL

*Note lines from Sunday night via my local.

Already hit Duke, Purdue, Kent, UConn, Arkansas, Davidson, & Butler

[fondybadger]

#8 UNLV vs Kent State #9 -1.5
It should be a competitive game throughout. I give the edge to Kent State because they've shown they can play and beat better competition on a consistent basis.

In non-conference Kent St. beat Illinois State by 6 on a neutral court, blew out Saint Louis by 41, won at UNC-Greensboro by 7, won against George Mason by 18, and handled Cleveland State by 15. They also lost to Xavier by 13 in a game that was much closer than the final score and were handled rather easily at UNC by 29. In their Bracket Buster game they went to St. Marys and won by 8 points which was no small feat.

UNLV seemed to play better before kind of tailing off throughout the season. In early February they looked like a lock for the NCAA tournament. Then they started to play lackadaisical, especially away from home and against teams they should have blown out. UNLV lost to Ville' by 20 and Zona' by 3 at home, lost by 3 at UCSB and beat Minnesota by 17. UNLV's last four games away from home they've gone 1-3 and lost by an average of 11 points.

OTHER NOTES:
Kent St. 12-4 ATS versus teams with winning records (14-3 SU)
Kent St. 10-2 ATS versus teams that allow less than 64 pts/game (11-1 SU)
Kent St. 9-1 SU in their last 10
UNLV 8-2 SU in their last 10
UNLV 8-2 ATS in non-conference games (10-3 SU)
UNLV 16-7 SU when playing a team with a winning record (15-7 ATS)
Both teams a shade over .500 away from home ATS

Kent matches up well with UNLV and should take control down the stretch.
WAGER: $200 Kent State -1.5


#8 Indiana -2 vs. #9 Arkansas
Most of the stats in this game favor Indiana. Why am I against them? Lack of motivation. They have a lame duck coach. An inexperienced G in Eric Gordon. A PF who is probably regretting coming back and a roster full of players questioning where the program will be next season. Indiana has played horrible down the stretch and aren't playing like they really care anymore. If they get behind early they don't have any consistent outside shooters accept for Bassett.

Arkansas has played well down the stretch to get the at large bid. I feel they're a bit more hungry to keep playing and they have nothing to lose. Arkansas can go 8 or 9 guys deep that will put up solid numbers across the board. Something that Indiana really can't do. Love the experience in Arkansas backcourt giving Gordon a fit and they have the size inside that can knock DJ White around.

Look for DJ White to get his points, but Gordon to be shut down. Arkansas will come hungry for the victory and pull away down the stretch to win by double digits.
PLAY: $200 Arkansas +2

[fondybadger]

#15 Belmont vs #2 Duke -19.5
Belmont plays a game similar to Duke. Which isn't good news for them as they don't play it nearly as well. They do have an experienced team that is pretty well balanced. Belmont has won 13 in a row and their best wins are against Cincinnati and Alabama. They went 8-6 in non conference games, but only 2 wins were against teams with a record over .500. Last season they lost by 25 in the first round to Georgetown, and I expect them to have a similar outcome versus Duke. One other note is Belmont led the Atlantic Sun in 3pt%, so if they're hitting them, they could make it a game.
Wager: $200 Duke -19.5


#11 Baylor vs. #6 Purdue -2.5
Let me preface this that I HATE Baylor. I see the school name and my stomach churns. May have something to do with their double OT blowup around a week ago. I was hoping they wouldn't get into the tournament. The only solace I have is they got a brutal match-up and they'll be sent home early. Purdue went 24-8 on the season and 15-3 in the Big 10. They play great fundamental basketball and create a lot of points off of turnovers. They also have a nice outside game. They've beaten Wisky (2), Louisville, and Michigan State this season. Baylor lives and dies by the 3 and should get beat up inside as they're very guard heavy. I don't trust Baylor away from home and Purdue should be able to shut them down from the get go.
Wager: $400 Purdue -2.5



#13 San Diego vs. #4 Connecticut -11.5
What stands out to me is that San Diego struggled away from home, except for a win at Kentucky when Kentucky was going through their bad stretch. SD lost at Boise by 6, New Mexico by 10, Nevada by 14, Marshall by 16, Gonzaga by 10, and Saint Mary's by 7. Needless to say UConn is better than any of those listed teams (lets ignore the Zags beating UConn). Uconn has played and beaten some very good teams including Louisville, Marquette, and Indiana. They have an inside presence in Thabeet and Adrien and have solid guards in Price and Dyson. Bill Grier, San Diego's head coach, is making his first tournament as a head coach but was an assistant at Gonzaga beforehand. I don't feel that SD will be able to handle the guards of UConn and will struggle with size as they only play 3 guys who are over 6'2 (with the tallest being Pomare at 6'8).
Wager: $200 Connecticut -11.5


#10 Davidson -1.5 vs. #7 Gonzaga
This game will come down to two things; how hot is Stephen Curry and how many 3's are falling for Davidson. Davidson has played a plethora of quality teams, but could never get over the hump winning in non-conference against the elite teams. There best wins are against Georgia Southern and Appy State, solid teams, but nothing to write home about. Davidson currently has the nations longest winning streak at 22 games and this should be an extremely interesting match-up. Gonzaga definitely has the size advantage, but they do use that advantage on the offensive end. I believe that Davidson will be able to control the flow of the game, knock down some huge 3's and surprisingly control the glass, preventing Gonzaga 2nd chance opportunities. If Davidson can't hit the 3's, lookout as this game could get ugly in a hurry.
Wager: $200 Davidson -1.5 -105


#7 Butler -4 vs. #10 South Alabama
South Alabama stands out as a very upperclassmen led team. The top 8 players for the Jaguars are all juniors or seniors. Demetric Bennett is an NBA talent who is averaging 20.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 1.3 spg. The last time they made the field was 2006, when they lost in the first round to the eventual National Champion Florida Gators. Put the Jags against any BCS school and I'd expect upset, but playing Butler that won't happen. Butler has beaten Ohio State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech (talk about bubble busting). Four of the five starters for Butler are seniors and I don't see AJ Graves going quietly into the night. Butler didn't win pretty in conference play but they pulled it off when it counted. They had the player of the year in Mike Green, Freshmen of the Year in Matt Howard and can beat you numerous different ways. They lost in the Sweet 16 last year, bring back pretty much the same team, and can say they were dissed with their seed. Expect the team that comes together this time of the year to use their NCAA experience and take care of business.
Wager: $300 Butler -4

[Tommy]

Nice picks and writeups Nick. BOL in the tourney bro

[TheOneTheOnly2006]

Awesome picks man

P.S. I love the Temple and Siena plays coming up. Both teams are hot coming into the tourney...

[fondybadger]

Rest of Thursdays Card

12:20
$150 Kansas -22.5
$100 Xavier -8
$100 Temple +7

2:30
$100 Pittsburgh -8 -115
$100 Kentucky +6

5:00
$100 Cornell +15

7:10
$100 Kansas State +4 -115
$100 Winthrop +10
$100 BYU +2

9:40
$300 Wisconsin -11
$300 Arizona +2
$300 Notre Dame -6.5
$100 Miss. Valley State +31.5

[fondybadger]

1st Half Ads
$200 Kansas 1H -12
$200 Xavier 1H -4.5

[fondybadger]

2nd Half Wagers
$150 Kansas -6.5
$150 Xavier -7
$350 Michigan State -1 (buying off Temple)

[fondybadger]

$300 Pittsburgh 1H -4.5
$230 Purdue 1H ML -130
$150 Kentucky 1H +3.5
$100 Kentucky 1H ML +170
$120 Kent State 1H ML -115

+ $100 more on Purdue -2.5