[Tommy]

(1) North Carolina (-7.5, 153.5) vs. (2) Michigan State 9:21 ET

#1 seeds won three in row, eight of last nine national title games against lower seeds, but this is first such game since Maryland beat Indiana back in 2002. Carolina is 2-0 in national title games the last 20 years, beating Michigan 77-71 in '93, Illinois 75-70 four years ago. Izzo beat Florida in 2000 final, 89-76. Since 1987, underdogs of 6+ points are 5-2 vs spread in the national title game, with three SU wins.

North Carolina crushed Michigan State 98-63 Dec 3 at Ford Field, but it was a game Suton missed with an injury, and Carolina led just 53-39 at the half. State shot 20% in second half, and none of the other three big guys scored a point for Spartans. UNC's starters outscored State's 75-31 Tar Heels scored 27 pts off Spartan turnovers. That was 123 days ago.

Suton is back and playing well; Spartans beat Kansas, Louisville, UConn in last three games, getting quality PG play from sophomore Lucas and timely shots from senior leader Walton. Michigan State ranks 5th in US in offensive rebounding, 11th on defensive boards. HanXXXough hit 13-13 from foul line in first meeting; think he will have much tougher time here.

No one has come within 12 points of North Carolina in this tournament; LSU gave them the toughest game, going toe-to-toe with Heels (tie game with 8:10 left), and Spartans are fairly similar to LSU, lot of athletes to frustrate HanXXXough underneath. Key to stopping Carolina is Lawson; if he goes off, Tar Heels win by double digits. Contain him, its a game.

This will be a road game for North Carolina; times are tough in Michigan and Spartans have given the locals an emotional lift. Carolina was 3-5 as an ACC road favorite this season, losing at Wake Forest, Maryland. If I were investing in this game, my thought process would be either State wins SU or Carolina wins by double digits. I'd money line the Spartans.

[Tommy]

Monday, April 6, 2009

MICHIGAN STATE vs. NORTH CAROLINA

Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Michigan State
North Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Michigan State