[nekbug]

something to ponder, lou v was
ever since selection sunday the controversy has raged about these two teams seeding, and people have had today's game circled. Most of the conventional wisdom has it that Louisville gets it revenge and wins, but conventional wisdom is about to be proven wrong again, and here's why.

all the bitchin' from louisville fans notwithstanding the selection committee got their seeding right. At best they deserved the last #3 seed. Why? Strength of schd to begin with. Of the 16 teams remaining only utah and umw played a weaker schd. why does this matter? Well simply put Louisville's impressive 29-4 record is a mirage, the product of alot of suspect games. Again only Utah and UMW have played fewer top 50 teams than Louisville (8-2 against top 50). Washington on the other hand has played at a 10-4 rate against top 50 with 6 of those wins coming away from home (road or neutral sites). You can add to this that Was is 8-0 at neutral sites this year overall. Continuing on the strength of schd you will also see that Louisville played 12 games against teams ranked between 100-200 and 5 against teams ranked below 200; compared to Was 7 between 100-200 and 2 below 200. So while many are following the supposed wisdom of Was being the pretender today, the season doesnt bear that out. Louisville has played a paper tiger schd and that lack of quality opponents should be your first nagging doubt.

But lets go a bit deeper inside the numbers.

Lou averaged 80 pts a game this year, but against top 50 teams that avg drops to 67.6.

Was averaged 86.6 pts a game, 81.28 against top 50

Lou allowed 62.4 pts against this year, 68.5 against top 50

Was allowed 73.7 against, 79 against top 50

What i take away from these numbers is the fact that Louisville in order to win must slow it down, really slow it down, which they are very unlikely to be able to do for a couple of reasons: 1) Was only plays one way, full out run and gun, and this style has led to the inflation of their points allowed and the perception of a suspect defense, dont be fooled. The Huskies are well schooled at both ends of the floor. Doubt me? well consider,
rebounds L 39.2 W 37.3
steals L 8.7 W 8.2
turnovers L 14.6 W 14.3
essentially a stastical tie, until u factor in the strength of opponents. add whatever bias you want to the numbers, but few will argue i think that the vaunted louisville edge without the ball is anything more than hype.

2) louisville is going to try to run with was. big mistake. They dont have the legs or the bench. The cards rely big time on Garcia, OBannon Dean and Myles, after that they get limited but useful contributions from Palacios, George and Jenkins. And i do mean limited. The Huskies at first glance would seem to get even less from their bench until you consider the style they play, or even better have had a chance to watch it. Romar will run 3 and at times 4 guards at you. Robinson, Simmons, Roy and Conroy ensure that the pressure is relentless. Forwards split time, with Bobby Jones getting most, but Hakeem Rollins and Mike Jensen arent far behind. Size in this game is only going to matter if Lou plays a deliberate slow methodical game, and if they do then Romar will settle into a 2/3 guard game for the most part, settling for 3/4 guard runs.

you may wonder why i think lou wont play deliberate game. well i have seen both these teams play this yr, alot and i have formed some impressions, mostly negative about lou. they can be teased into a run and gun game rather easily at times. Garcia, Myles, and dean love it. But they have an achilles heel, garcia and myles foul way too much. In particular garcia, even more annoyingly, he fouls early. Romar will exploit this by running his 4 guards against him. simple numbers game here, 20 fouls to 5 and if garcia responds as i think he's likely too it means a significant part of the lst half finds him on the bench and when that happens the advantage to Was becomes huge rather than slight.

finally the coaches: King Richard has a mystique which is in my opinion over valued these days. So often it seems his pro fiasco is dismissed. Fact is he's a long way removed from the glory days of Kentucky. Romar on the other hand has flown under the radar of most, but what hes done with the Huskies since taking over this mordibund program speaks volumes. The man can coach. There is no advantage to Louisville here.

in the final analysis i take the points and was and definitely play the over

[Buckery]

Great analysis nekbug, I'm not big into ncaa but when somebody convinces me I will tail at times

GL tonight with the plays

[Tommy]

Welcome to the board Nekbug :D , I love your point of view, great write up :wink: Look forward to your posts :D


BOL

[QuickNick]

nekbug, GREAT Write Bro and welcome to the forum!!! All points made and well taken and I just want to add, Louisville is a false favorite in this game, they were made a FAV, because, of the ass whippin' they put on Georgia Tech. I am with you 100% on Washington!!!! BOL!!!

[naught33]

hey man, nice to have you here...great writeup, I also agree that Wash wins this one.... don't think louisvilles pressure will get to the guards of wash...too many shooters for washington. GL