[Wigington]

YTD 46-32 @ 58.9%

Game #1

Baylor (73.6) @ Texas Tech (74.3)

The Baylor Bears are returning some key players on offense and defense along wth some of the top recruited freshman. For some reason this is Baylor's first game of the season and I believe they are being underestimated here as 13.5 point underdogs. Baylor has a lot of talent and I believe their absence in the college basketball scene so far is the reason why they are such a heavy underdog. They might be a bit rusty and anxious which is suspected, but I am leaning in their direction.

Lean

Baylor +13.5

[Wigington]

Baylor is in the unique position of playing its' very first game of the season tomorrow (at Tx Tech.) They've done nothing but practice for the past 89 days, and are obviously chomping at the bit to finally play a game. HC Scott Drew has two recruiting classes under his belt, and he's done an amazing job to this point. Hoopscoop ranked his 2005 class as 17th best in the nation (Rivals put it at 11th,) and his '04 class as 10th best in the nation. Impressive.

BU returns seven players that got at least 10 starts last year, including four of its' primary starters from a year ago. All that was lost were three walk-ons and a rarely used guard that all together combined for 6.1 ppg and 3.3 rpg. Many of you will remember Aaron Bruce, a 6'3" guard that led all freshmen in scoring last season at 18.2 ppg. This guy spent his summer leading (he was the captain) his Austrailian under-21 team to a 4th place finish in the 12-country World Basketball Tourney. He's the Big 12's leading returning scorer, deadly shooter, etc, etc, etc. You could go on and on about this kid. His likely starting backcourt mate will be senior Kevis Shipman. Shipman started 19 games last year, averaging 4.8 ppg. He'll get his fair share of minutes early in the season, but BU has two true frosh guards (Jerrells, Dugat) ranked in the top 100 freshmen in the nation that will play
huge rolls.

Tim Bush, a 6'6" 235 lb junior, will be one of the starters in the frontcourt. Bush started all 24 games last season after becoming eligible following his transfer from LSU. Bush averaged 12.7 ppg and 5.4 rpg, and was named to the All Big-12 Newcomers team. He played most of last season at the 4 spot, but the influx of big men will let him spend a lot af time now at the 3 where he should thrive. The other starting forward, Patrick Fields, is a 6'6" junior that averaged 11.1 and 3.9 last season. Like Bush, Fields transfered in from a more prestigious D-1 school (Ole Miss.) Starting at center will be Tommy Swanson, the lone holdover from the Bliss era. He's a 6'10" senior that averaged 11.9 and 5.8 last year.

BU's bench is young, but seriously talented. The aforementioned (6'1") Curtis Jerrells and (6'0") Henry Dugat are on the preseason top-100 true frosh list. Jerrells was ranked the 7th best player in the state of Texas by Texas Roundball after leading Del Valle (Austin) HS to a 29-5 record, averaging 20.2 ppg. Dugat should have an immediate impact as he was ranked the 74th best recruit in the nation by Rivals. He averaged 25.5 ppg as a senior last year. Kid is a skywalker that is sure to be a crowd favorite in Waco. Kevin Rogers, a 6'9" 235 lb forward, was dubbed the #1 Big 12 recruiting coup by Lindy's and Rivals. Street and Smith tabbed him (yet another!) top 100 freshman. Rogers is Baylor's highest-rated recruit in recent history (maybe ever.) Seven-footer Mamadou Diene, a redshirt freshmen, is reported to be the Bears' most improved player, and should get plenty of minutes at center (allowing Swanson to get some time at the 4 spot.) Diene, a native of Senegal, had a bout with malaria and was down to 200 lbs early last season, but he has recovered nicely and is back at 240 lbs (most of it muscle.) Drew raves over his rebounding skills and his touch on the offensive end. Jari Vanttaja, a 6'10" forward from Finland, is yet another quality big man recruit. Vanttaja, a veteran of international competition, was a top international signee. He draws comparison to fellow Finn Hanno Mottola, a former Utah Ute and Atlanta Hawk.

Make no mistake, Drew has these guys on the fast track to respectability. I think that the negative perception of Baylor's mens program, coupled with the lack of non-conference action, will lead to some value in the BU lines over the next few weeks. I see that Texas Tech opened as 13.5 pt chalk in tomorrow's game, and that number might just already qualify as value. In an effort to get ready for this belated season, Drew took his team to Dallas where they had an intra-squad scrimmage at the A-A Center, complete with Big 12 officials. Will they be rusty early in this season? Of course. Will they surprise the shit out of some people? Absolutely.


Pat and Bobby (Knight) were on the radio this morning lamenting the fact they have no worthwile tapes to look at. Said that last year's tapes help a little, but that BU had nothing off the bench last year. Not true this season. They expect plenty of new/diff sets on both sides of the ball.

Also, some of you may not know that Tech's fourth leading scorer, Terry Martin, who had not too long ago worked his way into the starting lineup, quit the team a few days ago. He's the second player (Drew Coffman the other) to leave the team over the winter break. This forces true frosh Michael Prince (2.7 ppg) into the starting lineup. He'll be making his second career start. The only real viable option off the bench now for Coach Knight is (another true frosh) Dior Lowhorn (7.9 ppg.) No one else on that bench is contributing more than 2 pts/gm. The Red Raiders' depth is now as bad as Baylor's was last year.

[Wigington]

Marquette vs Seton Hall

Since when is Marquette considered a defensive team, prone to low-scoring battles? Now they’re in the Big East, and all of a sudden they’re getting a total like this? I don’t really care who they are playing in that conference, this total is simply too low.

The Golden Hawks are scoring an average of 75.6 PPG for the season, and while this number takes a significant dip on the road (68.5 PPG), their relatively consistent free throw shooting (77%) should be seen as a bonus in an over situation as Seton Hall is averaging more than 20 PF’s per game over their last 5. Further strengthening the over call here is the fact that Marquette is such a well balanced team. While their leader is undeniably Steve Novak, they have 2 other starters averaging double figures, and a fourth averaging 9.5….thus, this is clearly not a one man team, and they even have a bench who kicks in its fair share as well. Oh yeah, I almost forgot…they lit UConn up for 94 points!

On the other side of the ball, I see absolutely nothing in Marquette’s “D” that warrants anything but an over here. While one might see their season average of 65.9PPG allowed as more than respectable, you really need to consider that this average remains to be held down by a 40 they spotted the Lewis Flyers (WHO???), a 48 against both San Fran and Delaware State, and 52 against South Dakota State. Also keep in mind that these visibly stellar performances came at home. On the road, the Eagle’s D is an entirely different story, as they are giving up 80.5 PPG.

As far as Seton Hall goes, I’ll start with their D. Much like Marquette’s overall numbers, the Pirates D really is not as good as the numbers might lead one to believe. Sure their overall average is just 61PPG, but let’s takes a minute to see where this number is actually coming from: They gave up 60 to Richmond, 57 to Fairleigh-Dickinson, 45 to Monmouth, 44 to North Western, and finally – 46 to the power house of Morgan State. In the case of the Northwestern and Richmond game, Defense was obviously the word of the day…for the other three; a bad opponent is likely the best way to explain it.

Offensively, the Pirates are averaging a sound 66 PPG for the season, and more than 70PPG at home….numbers that are obviously bolstered by their impressive rebounding margin of +8. While they certainly are not as balanced as Marquette, they still have 3 starters combining for roughly 40PPG, and a bench the spreads the scoring out well enough……while the Seton Hall “O” might be the only liability for this bet, I just can’t see them not being able to score on a team like Marquette.

If I had to pick a winner here, I’d take Marquette…..but either way, the losing team scores no less than 65 IMO, so I can’t really do worse than a push.

Lean

Over 133

[Wigington]

Posted Plays

Marquette vs Seton Hall Over 133

[Tommy]

BOL Today Wig, Nice writeups bro

[QuickNick]

Originally Posted by Wigington

Posted Plays

Marquette vs Seton Hall Over 133

I looked at that total also and thought it was very low. I am going to play it and for more than 1 unit since you like it also!!! BOL Bro!!!!

[Wigington]

Tonight's Plays

Marquette Over 133
St Louis +11.5

[naught33]

BOL on the plays buddy, seem solid to me

[Wigington]

Cannot believe the Over did not hit. 9 total points scored in the last 3 minutes and I lost by 3 points. Only in college swports would shit like this happen. Lets hope STL covers for me.

I have a lean on TCU +9.5 tonight...all depends on STL

[Wigington]

No totals for me anymore.

Adding TCU +9.5

[QuickNick]

Originally Posted by Wigington

No totals for me anymore.

Adding TCU +9.5

It was a good thing my book did not have a total tonight.

BOL with TCU Bro!!!!

[QuickNick]

I am gonna bet 1 unit on TCU with you BOL!!!!

[Wigington]

We are looking good so far. Not gonna get excited as there is a whole 2nd Half left but only down by 1 point @ halftime!

[QuickNick]

New Mexico 28
Texas Christ 27..... halftime

I hope they can hang tough in the 2nd half, I started to bet 1/2 unit on the MONEYLINE.

[QuickNick]

Originally Posted by Wigington

We are looking good so far. Not gonna get excited as there is a whole 2nd Half left but only down by 1 point @ halftime!

I hear ya Bro!! BOL in the 2nd half!!!

[QuickNick]

Well Bro, I am not quite ready to get excited, but, if we get to 2 minutes with the lead, I will.

607 TCU		46	8:24	125½
11:00 PM	Lineups
608 NEW MEXICO		43	2nd Half	9½

[QuickNick]

5:37 left in 2nd	1	2	T
TCU	27	25	52
New Mexico	28	19	47

[QuickNick]

BAM N Mex 56 TCU 54 FINAL!!!!!

Nice Call Bro!!!!

[Wigington]

2-1 on the day I will take it!

YTD 48-33 @ 59.2%