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Old 03-16-06, 04:21 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Arrow Thursday NCAA and NIT Tournament Info on all Games!

Thursday's afternoon NCAA games

First NCAAs in 18 years for Wichita club that won MVC regular season, is 5-1 in last six games. Seton Hall is 1-9 this year when they score less than 65 points; they lost at St John's, then won at Pitt, they lost at Richmond, won by 18 at NC State, lost by 53 at Duke, 42 at UConn, so very erratic team. Wichita's last six opponents scored 63 or less pts. Pirates shoot 41.2% as team; Wichita is 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Hall has the older players. Interesting: 8th Big East team vs #1 MVC club.

Pacific beat two Big East teams in first round last two yrs; here they get former Big East team that got bad travel draw, playing this early Thursday game after playing Sunday in Greensboro. Tigers are just 6-5 out of Big West, but only one of those losses was by more than seven pts. Both teams have experience; BC is 13-1 outside the ACC, but their non-ACC schedule wasn't good. Eagles have four returning starters with over 420 career starts. #13 seeds are 16-12 vs spread in first round the last seven years.

Oklahoma doesn't have true PG, they won five games by a point in Big 12, the NCAA is sniffing around, and there are rumors of Sampson job hunting elsewhere. Wisconsin-Milwaukeee starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year, as they beat Alabama, Boston College. Sooners lost three of four in first round, when they were lower than 4 seed (they're a #6). Panthers won at Wyoming, Montana. Sooners won four games in row by point, then got crushed at Texas, and had bad loss to Nebraska in first round of Big 12 tournament.

Alabama lost last two games, fading late in SEC tourney loss at Kentucky; they did well this year, considering they lost leading scorer Davis for year in first SEC game- they lost last year in the first round, for first time in eight years; they're 4-0 in first round when seeded 7th or lower. Marquette beat South Carolina of the SEC in OT in Alaska, but they also lost first conference tourney game, a red flag. Six of nine Eagles that play are freshman/sophs they are -13 in turnovers, but hold foes to 40.4% from the floor.

South Alabama coach Pelphrey was Kentucky player who once worked for Donovan at Florida. One of USA's best players was at Clemson (Christie), where he played for current Florida ass't coach Shyatt, before transferring to Mobile, so lot of familiarity here in this game. Sun Belt teams are 0-10 in tournament (4-6 vs spread) while Gators are just 3-5 in tourney since losing title game in '00 to Michigan State. Jaguars won last eight games; they play lot like Florida, and have more experienced team in this game; USA foes shoot just 29.6% behind arc. Gators played last game Sunday, so quick turnaround for them.

Winthrop won at Marquette early in year; they're a fashionable pick to upset 2 seed Tennessee, which was 2-4 in last six games and lost in first SEC tourney game. Winthrop played three SEC teams this year, losing 60-57 at Alabama, 64-62 at Auburn, 68-54 at South Carolina; they have balanced scoring, but Big South teams have never won NCAA game, except for a play-in game.
Winthrop shoots lot of 3's, making 36.3%; key is whether they can force turnovers from Volunteer guards who were 15th in the country in fewest percentage of turnovers.

Nevada won last fourteen games; they beat Sacramento State in season opener, 82-74, only Big Sky team they faced; Wolf Pack won first round game in last two first rounds, by 4,6 pts; they're favored here vs Montana team that lost 88-77 to Washington in first round last year (they trailed 43-26 at half).Grizzlies won Big Sky title game at Northern Arizona, always good sign for team to be good enough to win on road. Montana beat Stanford at home 88-69 this year, only Pac-10 team they faced. Griz shoot it from arc at 38.5%. This could be an interesting game.

Atlantic Sun teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in NCAAs last five years and Belmont shoots 50% from floor for season, so they deserve respect; they lost by 10 at Ohio State, by 22 at Oklahoma- they shoot 38% from arc, have only two seniors in their rotation of 10 guys. UCLA is #2 seed for first time in nine years; they've won seven games in a row, covering all seven. San Diego site favors UCLA. Odd stat: #15 seed in West region is 9-0 vs spread in the first round the last nine years, winning one of the nine games.

Thursday night games

NC-Wilmington won last eight games, 13 of last 14; they play at slower (248th) pace than GW (9th), rank 8th in effective FG%, so they don't allow easy hoops, which is George Washington's big thing. Seahawks are the highest seeded CAA team since they started seedings; CAA teams are 5-0 vs spread in first round last five years; they lost by hoop to Maryland two years ago (+9) year after they beat USC in first round (+10.5). GW is 26-2, but lost in its first A-14 tourney game, was lucky to win game before that; they miss injured C Mensah-Bonsu.

Iona is free-wheeling team (40% from behind the arc) that starts three senior guards but is erratic; they scored 86.7 ppg in winning MAAC tourney, after losing last two regular season games. Gaels 0-3 in this event since '98, losing by 2,15,2 pts; MAAC teams are 1-9 in last ten first round games (Manhattan beat Florida in '04). LSU hasn't won NCAA game since '00, losing last two first round games in as similar favorites in '03, '05. This is only second time in last 20 years LSU seeded this high. Status of star freshman Thomas unclear; he has missed last few weeks.

Gonzaga is 6-1 in first round last seven years, winning last three by 5,27,10 pts. Xavier also won last three first round games, but they're here because A-14 tournament was at home; they were seeded 10th out of 14; their best player has broken ankle, they fired their PG, and they were 2-4 in last six games away from home. Gonzaga is feeling slighted with #3 seed, but the defense is spotty, and they were fortunate to escape WCC tourney, also at home. Zags might be better off playing more athletic teams that will run with them, but Xavier holds foes to 39.2% from floor, so Zags will need Raivio to hit some shots to take heat off star F Morrison.

Illinois faces Northwestern, another Princeton-style team, twice a year; this year, they beat Wildcats 58-47/63-47, so they should be OK as far as that. Air Force has no seniors in top seven players; their best guy missed this year with injury, but they beat Miami, Georgia Tech, St Mary's, lost 85-74 at Washington, then finished second in Mountain West- they still have yet to win conference tourney game, much less NCAA game- they lost by 11 to North Carolina two years ago in this round. Illinois was in Final Four last year; they won last eight first round games
(6-2 vs spread), but lost in first game of Big 11 tourney, always a red flag. Illini are 14-0 outside Big 11.

Southern is last SWAC team to win non-play-in NCAA game, beating Georgia Tech as 13 seed back in '93 (93-78); SWAC teams covered seven of last 10 non-PI tourney games. Jaguars are 1-9 outside SWAC, losing 89-56 at Texas, 84-56 at LSU, 88-44 at Texas A&M, 68-54 at Oklahoma, 73-56 at Xavier; they have 76 more turnovers than their opponents. 16 seeds are 9-7 vs spread last four years. Duke played on Sunday, but on same floor as this game (Greensboro), so short turnaround but very little travel; they're 5-8 vs spread in last thirteen first round games (4-4 as #1 seed). Southern just second SWAC team in last five years not in play-in game.

Syracuse went from scrap heap to 5 seed on strength of brillant weekend by McNamara at MSG last week; this is team that lost at home to Bucknell, was 9 seed in Big East, and didn't leave New York during December, except for game vs Towson State in Scranton, which happens to be McNamara's hometown. Texas A&M is 8-1 in last nine games, losing only 74-70 vs Texas; they won four of last five games away from home. Aggies hold foes to 41% from floor, force 18 turnovers a game; they won in OT at Iowa State in January- Cyclones play same summer league 2-3 zone as Syracuse, albeit with lesser players. Orange lost in first round last year to Vermont; they're 4-2 in last six first round games. The last five years, 12 seeds are 8-12 SU in this round, not bad; this is least points a 12 seed has gotten in five years. Aggies have 3rd best defensive efficiency in country.

Utah State is fashionable pick to upset Washington, but Aggies didn't win regular season or tournament in WAC; why are they here? Their RPI was lower than four teams that stayed home. Aggies have nine newcomers, but they shoot 3's well and start three seniors; they lost four of last five first round games, beating Ohio State as 12 seed five years ago (+3). Washington won first round game last two years, scoring 92 ppg; they're 11-0 outside of Pac-10, and had won eight games in row (7-1 vs spread) before second half collapse vs Oregon (led 41-30 at half) knocked them out in first round of Pac-10 tourney. Huskies start four seniors, are 4th in country on offensive boards, while USU is 168th on defensive boards. 12 seeds are 17-11 vs spread the last seven years.

Indiana-San Diego State is weirdest first round game. Davis is lame duck; his best shooter tore up his ankle at end of Ohio State game Saturday and didn't practice on Monday, plus game is at altitude, where Killingworth's conditioning will be an issue, especially vs Aztec squad that won conference tournament in altitude of Denver last week; they play Utes on this floor every year. That said, Mountain West tourney champ is 0-6 SU in this event, scoring 57 ppg; all MWC teams are 3-8 SU in last 11 tourney games. Aztecs didn't shoot 40% in any single game last weekend; they survived OT in final vs 7-seed Wyoming with star player Slaughter fouled out, and star G Heath shooting 7-27 from floor. Vaden's health is a key to this game.

Thursday NIT games

Hofstra was upset they didn't make NCAAs; now they get shot at Big 12 team, on their home court. Nebraska is 10-3 outside the Big 12- they weren't bad on road in Big 12 (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 as road dog). Hofstra is 11-2 in last 13 games; they were 5-2-1 as a home favorite in CAA games. Good chance for Hofstra to improve its profile, vs team from one of the power conferences.

Quick turnaround for Rutgers club that is 6-3 in last nine games and won at Penn State Tuesday, shooting 53% from floor, 12-28 from the arc. Douby's scoring is carrying this team. St Joe's lost tough game at Xavier in A-14 finals that ended Hawks' 8-game win streak. Hawks lost 71-58 to Villanova in only game against a Big East team this yr. Rutgers beat Temple by 14, only team in A-14 they faced this season.

UTEP hammered Lipscomb 85-66 Tuesday, shooting 58% from floor, hitting 14-24 treys, now they move way up in class, face a Michigan team that didn't always play hard during season- what they do here is anyone's guess. Wolverines have edge with bye but they lost seven of last nine games, were 2-4 as home fave in league games. UTEP misses leading scorer Tofi; they're 1-3 on road since he got hurt, losing by 10,11,3 points.

Akron is just 4-4 last eight games; they rallied from down 34-26 at half to win in OT at Temple Tuesday; trip to Creighton is a bit taxing, especially facing rested Bluejay team that hasn't played in 13 days. Creighton lost four of last six games, is 4-4 as a MVC home favorite. Zips were 6-0 in MAC at one point, faded to 15-5 Interesting to see how Creighton, Missouri State react to being left out of tourney, while four other Valley teams got in.
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Old 03-16-06, 04:34 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Here is some trends just in case....

Thursday, March 16th

NCAA Tournament First Round

Seton Hall vs. Wichita State, 12:20 EST
Seton Hall: 1-8 ATS off 3+ games forcing 14 turnovers or less
Wichita State: 7-0 ATS away after scoring 60 points or less

Winthrop vs. Tennessee, 2:50 EST
Winthrop: 1-6 ATS off a conference game
Tennessee: 12-3 ATS off an Over

NC Wilmington vs. George Washington, 7:10 EST
NC Wilmington: 24-6 ATS in tournament games
George Washington: 15-4 Over in tournament games

Southern U vs. Duke, 9:40 EST
Southern U: N/A
Duke: 1-8 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5+ points

Wisconsin Milwaukee vs. Oklahoma, 12:25 EST
Wisc Milwaukee: 12-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Oklahoma: 3-12 ATS off an ATS loss

South Alabama vs. Florida, 2:25 EST
South Alabama: 8-1 ATS away off BB conference games
Florida: 8-2 over away off BB straight up wins

Texas A&M vs. Syracuse, 9:40 EST
Texas A&M: 8-2 ATS away off a conference game
Syracuse: 2-10 ATS off 4+ ATS wins

Iona vs. LSU, 7:10 EST
Iona: 8-1 ATS playing on a neutral court
LSU: 0-6 ATS away off a loss by 10+ points

Pacific vs. Boston College, 12:40 EST
Pacific: 20-10 ATS off a conference game
Boston College: 7-0 Over in March

Montana vs. Nevada, 3:10 EST
Montana: 2-10 ATS away off a road conference win
Nevada: 11-4 ATS off a conference win

San Diego State vs. Indiana, 9:40 EST
San Diego State: 13-3 Over off BB conference games
Indiana: 7-0 ATS away off an ATS win

Xavier vs. Gonzaga, 7:20 EST
Xavier: 17-2 ATS in March
Gonzaga: 1-8 ATS off BB home wins

Air Force vs. Illinois, 7:25 EST
Air Force: 12-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Illinois: 9-2 Under away in tournament games

Utah State vs. Washington, 9:55 EST
Utah State: 2-10 ATS in March
Washington: 11-3 Over off ATS wins in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

Alabama vs. Marquette, 2:40 EST
Alabama: 1-7 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Marquette: 11-1 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Belmont vs. UCLA, 5:10 EST
Belmont: 3-0 ATS in tournament games
UCLA: 2-10 ATS off 7+ wins
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