TRENDS FOR SATURDAY

viccerb · 03-18-06, 12:59 PM

George Washington:
19-7 ATS playing their second game in three days
8-1 ATS off ATS losses in 3 of their last 4 games

Duke:
2-8 ATS away after winning 15+ of their last 20 games
9-2 Over off an Under

Wisc Milwaukee:
7-0 Over off BB ATS wins
20-9 Over after winning 4 or 5 of their last six games

Florida:
7-0 Over after allowing 60 points or less BB games
8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Texas A&M:
6-0 ATS Away off an ATS win
12-3 Under Away after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

LSU:
9-2 Under after having won 4 of their last 5 games
11-3 Under off a double-digit win

Montana:
10-3 Over when the total is 140 to 149.5
8-1 ATS as an underdog

Boston College:
10-1 Over on a neutral court
6-0 Over in tournament games

Indiana:
6-0 ATS Away off BB ATS wins
17-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

Gonzaga:
8-18 ATS as a favorite
4-13 ATS off 4+ SU wins

Alabama:
1-8 ATS vs. non-conference games
16-4 Under Away off a SU win

UCLA:
6-0 ATS in March
6-0 ATS Away off BB double-digits wins

Washington:
n/a
n/a

Illinois:
9-1 Under in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5
15-7 ATS after playing a game as favorite

Tommy · 03-18-06, 06:17 PM

Thanks for the trends Viccerb. Very helpful

Tommy · 03-18-06, 06:19 PM

Here is some more info on the Games today.

Saturday NCAA Tournament

Wichita won MVC regular season, is 6-1 in last six games; they are 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Wichita's last seven opponents scored 66 or less pts. Tennessee is 3-4 in last seven games and lost in first SEC tourney game, then struggled a lot in Winthrop game, pulling out win on desperation shot. Shockers held Seton Hall to 34.4% from floor in first round, won easily by 20- they were 22-32 from line, 10-22 from arc. Vols shot just 5-21 from arc in their win. Since '91, #2 seeds are 20-9 vs spread when facing 7 seed in second round but 2-4 if spread is 3 or less pts.

Boston College is 0-5 in this round since '94, but 13-1 in its non-ACC games this season; their non-ACC schedule was not good. Eagles survived double OT in first round vs Pacific, making just 6 of 23 treys- they were down six in the first OT, but with its four returning starters with over 420 career starts, they got through. Montana is on roll; they beat Nevada easily in first round, after winning Big Sky tourney at Northern Arizona- they hit 23-27 on foul line, made 6-12 treys, and shot 51.8% from floor. Since 2002, 12-seeds are 5-2 vs spread in this round. BC lost 4-12 game last year, to alumnus Bruce Pearl and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Florida started rivalry with Bruce Pearl's Vols this season; here they get Pearl's old team, Wisconsin-Milwaukeee, which starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year-- they were 26-32 from line Thursday, winning despite hitting just 6-20 3's. Gators held South Alabama to 34.5% from floor, hit on 10-25 treys and coasted; they're 0-3 in this round since '00, and were favored in two of those three games. 11-seeds are 5-13 vs spread when facing a #3 (3-3 in last six), but #3-seeds are 1-6 vs spread in this round the last two years. Noah might be the best player in this whole tournament, including Morrison/Redick.

Since '91, 2-seeds are 20-9 vs spread when facing 7-seed in this round; in last six years, faves of more than three points are 10-8 vs number. Bruins won and covered last eight games- they also won last six second round games, and were underdog in three of those. Alabama coach Gottfried has national championship ring from stint as UCLA assistant under former coach Harrick. Tide ran out to a 44-30 halftime lead Thursday, making 12-23 from arc and 22-31 from line. Bruins held Belmont to 28.8% from floor and were +20 on boards in complete mismatch. San Diego site has to favor UCLA somewhat- this should be good game.

George Washington stared Grim Reaper in face Thursday, came back from 18 down in second half to win; now they get the big fish in Duke, which struggles vs athletic teams- they turned ball over 20 times vs Southern Thursday. Duke won last eight in this round (3-5 vs spread); #1 seeds are 11-9 vs spread in this round the last five years. GW played two ACC teams this year, losing 79-58 at NC State Dec 31 (+5), 26 days after they beat local rival Maryland 78-70 (+2.5). Duek will not wear down like UNCW did, and this game is in Greensboro, so Colonials better not fall way behind the way they did in first round game.

LSU outscored Iona 48-27 in second half Thursday, always plus sign, rallying from 37-32 halftime deficit, grabbing their first win in this event since '00. Texas A&M shot 35.7% in their win, but Aggies win via defense (3rd in nation in defensive efficiency). LSU is 9th in country in offensive rebounding, so this game is going to be played inside arc, unlike many games in the tourney. A&M beat Auburn 72-67 at home Dec 22 (-8.5), only SEC team they faced this year. Tigers won eight of last nine games- would think Aggies' lack of offense will hurt them here, but 12-seeds in this round covered five of their last seven games.

Gonzaga lost to Bob Knight in this round last year, third year in row they lost in second round- now they're facing Indiana, and Zags' Few is one of names being tossed in hat for IU's coaching job. Gonzaga trailed most of the game vs Xavier; they struggled despite shooting 52% from floor- they've got serious difference-maker in Morrison. Xavier hurt Gonzaga by shooting 23-33 from line. Indiana won despite Aztecs hitting 56.4% from field (10-18 from arc). Gutty Vaden played 36 minutes despite playing on an injured ankle. 3-seeds have struggled recently, covering one of last seven second round games. Underdogs are 19-8 vs spread in 3-6 games since 1996. Zags' last four wins are by a combined margin of twelve points.

Illinois is 15-0 outside Big 11 this season, 4-1 in last five second round games, with all four wins by 12+ points. Illini beat the Air Force 78-69 in first game, despite Falcons shooting 13-27 on its 3's. Washington is 12-0 out of Pac-10; Huskies had +14 turnover ratio Thursday (7-21), making 12-28 treys; they start four seniors who played in Sweet 16 last year. Washington now won nine of last ten overall (8-2 vs spread in last 10). Illini played in Final 4 last year. Since '99, dogs are 7-4 vs spread in 4-5 games in this round. Huskies have best player on floor in Roy; they're also #4 offensive rebounding team in country.

Saturday NIT Tournament

Manhattan beat FDU 80-77 in first round of NIT, thanks to FDU missing 14 of 32 foul shots; Jaspers had just six turnovers- their group of talented sophomores will be tested more by Maryland team that hasn't played since Boston College beat them in ACC tournament. Manhattan got run off floor by Long Beach State in Bracketbuster, 108-94, so they're vulnerable vs athletic teams.

03-18-06, 12:59 PM	#1 (permalink)
viccerb SCI Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 542	TRENDS FOR SATURDAY George Washington: 19-7 ATS playing their second game in three days 8-1 ATS off ATS losses in 3 of their last 4 games Duke: 2-8 ATS away after winning 15+ of their last 20 games 9-2 Over off an Under Wisc Milwaukee: 7-0 Over off BB ATS wins 20-9 Over after winning 4 or 5 of their last six games Florida: 7-0 Over after allowing 60 points or less BB games 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents Texas A&M: 6-0 ATS Away off an ATS win 12-3 Under Away after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games LSU: 9-2 Under after having won 4 of their last 5 games 11-3 Under off a double-digit win Montana: 10-3 Over when the total is 140 to 149.5 8-1 ATS as an underdog Boston College: 10-1 Over on a neutral court 6-0 Over in tournament games Indiana: 6-0 ATS Away off BB ATS wins 17-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 Gonzaga: 8-18 ATS as a favorite 4-13 ATS off 4+ SU wins Alabama: 1-8 ATS vs. non-conference games 16-4 Under Away off a SU win UCLA: 6-0 ATS in March 6-0 ATS Away off BB double-digits wins Washington: n/a n/a Illinois: 9-1 Under in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5 15-7 ATS after playing a game as favorite
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03-18-06, 06:17 PM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,109	Thanks for the trends Viccerb. Very helpful
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03-18-06, 06:19 PM	#3 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,109	Here is some more info on the Games today. Saturday NCAA Tournament Wichita won MVC regular season, is 6-1 in last six games; they are 8th in country in defensive rebounding. Wichita's last seven opponents scored 66 or less pts. Tennessee is 3-4 in last seven games and lost in first SEC tourney game, then struggled a lot in Winthrop game, pulling out win on desperation shot. Shockers held Seton Hall to 34.4% from floor in first round, won easily by 20- they were 22-32 from line, 10-22 from arc. Vols shot just 5-21 from arc in their win. Since '91, #2 seeds are 20-9 vs spread when facing 7 seed in second round but 2-4 if spread is 3 or less pts. Boston College is 0-5 in this round since '94, but 13-1 in its non-ACC games this season; their non-ACC schedule was not good. Eagles survived double OT in first round vs Pacific, making just 6 of 23 treys- they were down six in the first OT, but with its four returning starters with over 420 career starts, they got through. Montana is on roll; they beat Nevada easily in first round, after winning Big Sky tourney at Northern Arizona- they hit 23-27 on foul line, made 6-12 treys, and shot 51.8% from floor. Since 2002, 12-seeds are 5-2 vs spread in this round. BC lost 4-12 game last year, to alumnus Bruce Pearl and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Florida started rivalry with Bruce Pearl's Vols this season; here they get Pearl's old team, Wisconsin-Milwaukeee, which starts five seniors, four of whom started for Sweet 16 team last year-- they were 26-32 from line Thursday, winning despite hitting just 6-20 3's. Gators held South Alabama to 34.5% from floor, hit on 10-25 treys and coasted; they're 0-3 in this round since '00, and were favored in two of those three games. 11-seeds are 5-13 vs spread when facing a #3 (3-3 in last six), but #3-seeds are 1-6 vs spread in this round the last two years. Noah might be the best player in this whole tournament, including Morrison/Redick. Since '91, 2-seeds are 20-9 vs spread when facing 7-seed in this round; in last six years, faves of more than three points are 10-8 vs number. Bruins won and covered last eight games- they also won last six second round games, and were underdog in three of those. Alabama coach Gottfried has national championship ring from stint as UCLA assistant under former coach Harrick. Tide ran out to a 44-30 halftime lead Thursday, making 12-23 from arc and 22-31 from line. Bruins held Belmont to 28.8% from floor and were +20 on boards in complete mismatch. San Diego site has to favor UCLA somewhat- this should be good game. George Washington stared Grim Reaper in face Thursday, came back from 18 down in second half to win; now they get the big fish in Duke, which struggles vs athletic teams- they turned ball over 20 times vs Southern Thursday. Duke won last eight in this round (3-5 vs spread); #1 seeds are 11-9 vs spread in this round the last five years. GW played two ACC teams this year, losing 79-58 at NC State Dec 31 (+5), 26 days after they beat local rival Maryland 78-70 (+2.5). Duek will not wear down like UNCW did, and this game is in Greensboro, so Colonials better not fall way behind the way they did in first round game. LSU outscored Iona 48-27 in second half Thursday, always plus sign, rallying from 37-32 halftime deficit, grabbing their first win in this event since '00. Texas A&M shot 35.7% in their win, but Aggies win via defense (3rd in nation in defensive efficiency). LSU is 9th in country in offensive rebounding, so this game is going to be played inside arc, unlike many games in the tourney. A&M beat Auburn 72-67 at home Dec 22 (-8.5), only SEC team they faced this year. Tigers won eight of last nine games- would think Aggies' lack of offense will hurt them here, but 12-seeds in this round covered five of their last seven games. Gonzaga lost to Bob Knight in this round last year, third year in row they lost in second round- now they're facing Indiana, and Zags' Few is one of names being tossed in hat for IU's coaching job. Gonzaga trailed most of the game vs Xavier; they struggled despite shooting 52% from floor- they've got serious difference-maker in Morrison. Xavier hurt Gonzaga by shooting 23-33 from line. Indiana won despite Aztecs hitting 56.4% from field (10-18 from arc). Gutty Vaden played 36 minutes despite playing on an injured ankle. 3-seeds have struggled recently, covering one of last seven second round games. Underdogs are 19-8 vs spread in 3-6 games since 1996. Zags' last four wins are by a combined margin of twelve points. Illinois is 15-0 outside Big 11 this season, 4-1 in last five second round games, with all four wins by 12+ points. Illini beat the Air Force 78-69 in first game, despite Falcons shooting 13-27 on its 3's. Washington is 12-0 out of Pac-10; Huskies had +14 turnover ratio Thursday (7-21), making 12-28 treys; they start four seniors who played in Sweet 16 last year. Washington now won nine of last ten overall (8-2 vs spread in last 10). Illini played in Final 4 last year. Since '99, dogs are 7-4 vs spread in 4-5 games in this round. Huskies have best player on floor in Roy; they're also #4 offensive rebounding team in country. Saturday NIT Tournament Manhattan beat FDU 80-77 in first round of NIT, thanks to FDU missing 14 of 32 foul shots; Jaspers had just six turnovers- their group of talented sophomores will be tested more by Maryland team that hasn't played since Boston College beat them in ACC tournament. Manhattan got run off floor by Long Beach State in Bracketbuster, 108-94, so they're vulnerable vs athletic teams.
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