Thursday and Friday Sweet 16

Tommy · 03-23-06, 04:04 PM

NCAA Basketball Tournament - Sweet 16

LSU is very athletic, could hurt Duke on boards (ranked #9 on offensive boards, #24 on defensive end), but they're so young (one junior, one senior in 8-man rotation), hard to imagine them upsetting Duke team with three seniors in its rotation. Duke is in this round for ninth year in row; they're 2-4 SU last six games in regional semis, losing last year to Michigan State. #1 seeds are 12-7 vs spread in this round last six years. LSU is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this season.

As we said, #1 seeds 12-7 vs spread last six years in this round; #13 seeds rarely get here; Bradley is just fourth 13-seed ever to play in this round- previous three lost this game by 22,6,8 points (2-1 vs spread). Bradley is veteran team, returning 96% of points 93% of rebounds from last year; they got to line 62 times in two wins last week, their opponents 30 (+22 pts). Memphis is young talented and lucky they only had to beat Oral Roberts, Bucknell last week- they step up in class here, face an older team that is highly confident and has legit 7-footer in O'Bryant.

Texas beat West Virginia 76-75 way back on November 21, when Longhorns trailed 40-35 at half, but shot 54.2% from floor, were +21 on boards (40-19) and survived 24 turnovers, in game where Texas bench played total of just 17 minutes. Gansey had 28 pts for gritty Mountaineers, who beat #11,13 seeds last week to get here, but are senior-laden team (top four scorers are all seniors). Top three Texas scorers will all be back next year, if they want to be. #2 seeds are 6-3 vs spread in this round the last four years.

You'd think there'd be lot of 2-3 seed matchups in this round but since '97, it happened only eight out of possible 36 times, as dog won four of those eight (5-3 vs spread). Question for Gonzaga is whether Morrison is magical enough to carry mediocre band of teammates into Elite 8, while young Bruins have banged-up PG in Farmar (sprained right thumb, left wrist). Zags are 2-1 against Pac-10 teams this year, losing in double OT at Washington, and beating both Washington State (67-53), Stanford (80-76) on its tough home court. UCLA shot 51.1% from floor vs Alabama.

Home team won both BC-Villanova Big East games last season, before Eagles bolted for ACC; Eagles won 67-66 at home, then lost 76-70 in Philly; both home sides were 5.5-pt favorites. BC is a power team that is long way from home for third weekend in a row (Greensboro, Salt Lake) while Wildcats slept in own beds a week ago, but playing on road no biggie for BC team that went 8-3 away from home in tough ACC- this is first of former league rivals they've faced. BC had total of only 16 turnovers last week coming back from 71-65 deficit in OT to beat Pacific in 1st round.

Playing in Washington, DC is virtual home game for Geo Mason (Fairfax, VA) squad that won 70-67 at Wichita Feb 18, shooting 52% from floor, making 11-23 treys, in 66-possession game that saw Shockers shoot just 41.2% from floor (10-27 from arc).This is just third-ever meeting of 7-11 seeds in this round; LMU beat Alabama 62-60 in '90 (-1.5), 11-seed Temple beat Penn St 84-72 in '01(-4.5), so 11-seed has been favored all three times they've faced a #7. This should be low scoring game, as Wichita ranked 281st in country in pace, George Mason 273rd (out of 334).

Florida was most impressive team on first weekend, winning by 24,22 points; they beat Syracuse (75-70), Providence (87-77) of Big East during season. Georgetown beat Ohio State in Dayton after holding Northern Iowa to 49 pts, so they defend without a lot of fouls (foes tried only 21 FTs in two games). Hoyas lost at home to Vanderbilt of SEC, 68-61 in November. #3 seeds aren't usually favored in this round; since '95, they're 3-5 vs spread as favorite in regional semis. Key matchup is whether Florida's 6-10 star Noah can do damage inside vs Hoyas' 7-2 Hibbert, who is 50 pounds heavier than the Gators best player.

Washington, UConn are both Huskies, both like to play at a fast pace- only two times UW has been in this round the last 20 yrs, they lost (75-74 vs UConn, '98 (+11.5) (Bob Bender coached the Huskies then, not Romar) and 93-79 vs Louisville in '05 (+1.5)). UConn is 6-2 last eight times in this round. UW took 39 FTs in 67-64 win vs Illinois Saturday (Illini took 11); Huskies led by 14 early, then trailed by 11, but prevailed despite making only 37.8% from floor. UConn doesn't have 40-minute attention span; they led Kentucky 43-31 at half, but let UK back in game, after they trailed Albany after 30 minutes in first round. Good game.

Tommy · 03-23-06, 04:06 PM

Thursday, March 23rd

LSU vs. Duke 07:10 EST
LSU: 18-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less
6-1 ATS off a combined score of 115 points or less

Duke: 15-6 Over away off 5+ wins
14-5 Over after winning 12+ of their last 15 games

West Virginia vs. Texas 09:40 EST
West Virginia: 6-0 ATS in NCAA Tournament games
9-0 ATS away after playing BB games as a favorite

Texas: 3-10 ATS off an ATS win
2-8 ATS away after winning 12+ of their last 15 games

Gonzaga vs. UCLA 09:55 EST
Gonzaga: 19-5 ATS as a neutral court underdog
7-1 ATS away off an Over

UCLA: 0-8 ATS off 8+ wins
7-20 ATS after playing 4+ games as a favorite

Bradley vs. Memphis 07:25 EST
Bradley: 0-8 ATS away after committing 8 turnovers or less
0-6 ATS away playing their third game in seven days

Memphis: 7-1 ATS in tournament games
9-2 ATS away off an Under

Friday, March 24th

George Mason vs. Wichita State 07:25 EST
George Mason: 10-25 ATS away off BB ATS wins
8-1 Under playing on a neutral court

Wichita State: 17-6 ATS after playing as an underdog
9-2 ATS away off a non-conference game

Washington vs. Connecticut 09:55 EST
Washington: 10-2 Under off a win by 6 points or less
6-0 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

Connecticut: 2-9 ATS in March
3-13 ATS away after scoring 85+ points

Georgetown vs. Florida 09:40 EST
Georgetown: 20-6 Under playing on a neutral court
11-3 Under off an ATS win

Florida: 7-1 ATS off BB non-conference games
7-1 ATS off a win by 20+ points

Boston College vs. Villanova 07:10 EST
Boston College: 13-4 ATS in tournament games
6-0 ATS as an underdog

Villanova: 4-11 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
23-11 Over off BB wins

Tommy · 03-24-06, 06:28 PM

No Picks tonight. Just going to root on the Wildcats

03-23-06, 04:04 PM	#1 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Thursday and Friday Sweet 16 NCAA Basketball Tournament - Sweet 16 LSU is very athletic, could hurt Duke on boards (ranked #9 on offensive boards, #24 on defensive end), but they're so young (one junior, one senior in 8-man rotation), hard to imagine them upsetting Duke team with three seniors in its rotation. Duke is in this round for ninth year in row; they're 2-4 SU last six games in regional semis, losing last year to Michigan State. #1 seeds are 12-7 vs spread in this round last six years. LSU is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this season. As we said, #1 seeds 12-7 vs spread last six years in this round; #13 seeds rarely get here; Bradley is just fourth 13-seed ever to play in this round- previous three lost this game by 22,6,8 points (2-1 vs spread). Bradley is veteran team, returning 96% of points 93% of rebounds from last year; they got to line 62 times in two wins last week, their opponents 30 (+22 pts). Memphis is young talented and lucky they only had to beat Oral Roberts, Bucknell last week- they step up in class here, face an older team that is highly confident and has legit 7-footer in O'Bryant. Texas beat West Virginia 76-75 way back on November 21, when Longhorns trailed 40-35 at half, but shot 54.2% from floor, were +21 on boards (40-19) and survived 24 turnovers, in game where Texas bench played total of just 17 minutes. Gansey had 28 pts for gritty Mountaineers, who beat #11,13 seeds last week to get here, but are senior-laden team (top four scorers are all seniors). Top three Texas scorers will all be back next year, if they want to be. #2 seeds are 6-3 vs spread in this round the last four years. You'd think there'd be lot of 2-3 seed matchups in this round but since '97, it happened only eight out of possible 36 times, as dog won four of those eight (5-3 vs spread). Question for Gonzaga is whether Morrison is magical enough to carry mediocre band of teammates into Elite 8, while young Bruins have banged-up PG in Farmar (sprained right thumb, left wrist). Zags are 2-1 against Pac-10 teams this year, losing in double OT at Washington, and beating both Washington State (67-53), Stanford (80-76) on its tough home court. UCLA shot 51.1% from floor vs Alabama. Home team won both BC-Villanova Big East games last season, before Eagles bolted for ACC; Eagles won 67-66 at home, then lost 76-70 in Philly; both home sides were 5.5-pt favorites. BC is a power team that is long way from home for third weekend in a row (Greensboro, Salt Lake) while Wildcats slept in own beds a week ago, but playing on road no biggie for BC team that went 8-3 away from home in tough ACC- this is first of former league rivals they've faced. BC had total of only 16 turnovers last week coming back from 71-65 deficit in OT to beat Pacific in 1st round. Playing in Washington, DC is virtual home game for Geo Mason (Fairfax, VA) squad that won 70-67 at Wichita Feb 18, shooting 52% from floor, making 11-23 treys, in 66-possession game that saw Shockers shoot just 41.2% from floor (10-27 from arc).This is just third-ever meeting of 7-11 seeds in this round; LMU beat Alabama 62-60 in '90 (-1.5), 11-seed Temple beat Penn St 84-72 in '01(-4.5), so 11-seed has been favored all three times they've faced a #7. This should be low scoring game, as Wichita ranked 281st in country in pace, George Mason 273rd (out of 334). Florida was most impressive team on first weekend, winning by 24,22 points; they beat Syracuse (75-70), Providence (87-77) of Big East during season. Georgetown beat Ohio State in Dayton after holding Northern Iowa to 49 pts, so they defend without a lot of fouls (foes tried only 21 FTs in two games). Hoyas lost at home to Vanderbilt of SEC, 68-61 in November. #3 seeds aren't usually favored in this round; since '95, they're 3-5 vs spread as favorite in regional semis. Key matchup is whether Florida's 6-10 star Noah can do damage inside vs Hoyas' 7-2 Hibbert, who is 50 pounds heavier than the Gators best player. Washington, UConn are both Huskies, both like to play at a fast pace- only two times UW has been in this round the last 20 yrs, they lost (75-74 vs UConn, '98 (+11.5) (Bob Bender coached the Huskies then, not Romar) and 93-79 vs Louisville in '05 (+1.5)). UConn is 6-2 last eight times in this round. UW took 39 FTs in 67-64 win vs Illinois Saturday (Illini took 11); Huskies led by 14 early, then trailed by 11, but prevailed despite making only 37.8% from floor. UConn doesn't have 40-minute attention span; they led Kentucky 43-31 at half, but let UK back in game, after they trailed Albany after 30 minutes in first round. Good game.
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03-23-06, 04:06 PM	#2 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	Thursday, March 23rd LSU vs. Duke 07:10 EST LSU: 18-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 6-1 ATS off a combined score of 115 points or less Duke: 15-6 Over away off 5+ wins 14-5 Over after winning 12+ of their last 15 games West Virginia vs. Texas 09:40 EST West Virginia: 6-0 ATS in NCAA Tournament games 9-0 ATS away after playing BB games as a favorite Texas: 3-10 ATS off an ATS win 2-8 ATS away after winning 12+ of their last 15 games Gonzaga vs. UCLA 09:55 EST Gonzaga: 19-5 ATS as a neutral court underdog 7-1 ATS away off an Over UCLA: 0-8 ATS off 8+ wins 7-20 ATS after playing 4+ games as a favorite Bradley vs. Memphis 07:25 EST Bradley: 0-8 ATS away after committing 8 turnovers or less 0-6 ATS away playing their third game in seven days Memphis: 7-1 ATS in tournament games 9-2 ATS away off an Under Friday, March 24th George Mason vs. Wichita State 07:25 EST George Mason: 10-25 ATS away off BB ATS wins 8-1 Under playing on a neutral court Wichita State: 17-6 ATS after playing as an underdog 9-2 ATS away off a non-conference game Washington vs. Connecticut 09:55 EST Washington: 10-2 Under off a win by 6 points or less 6-0 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games Connecticut: 2-9 ATS in March 3-13 ATS away after scoring 85+ points Georgetown vs. Florida 09:40 EST Georgetown: 20-6 Under playing on a neutral court 11-3 Under off an ATS win Florida: 7-1 ATS off BB non-conference games 7-1 ATS off a win by 20+ points Boston College vs. Villanova 07:10 EST Boston College: 13-4 ATS in tournament games 6-0 ATS as an underdog Villanova: 4-11 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games 23-11 Over off BB wins
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03-24-06, 06:28 PM	#3 (permalink)
Tommy Now go get your shinebox Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Sportscapper Island Posts: 15,068	No Picks tonight. Just going to root on the Wildcats
Status: Online